Bahia vs Flamengo
Flamengo cruise to comfortable win at Bahia
A second-half surge sees Flamengo claim a 3-0 victory away from home.
Flamengo overturned expectations with a commanding 3-0 win at Bahia, defying Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a home victory. Jorginho opened the scoring with a penalty in the 64th minute, before G. Plata and Lucas Paquetá added goals in quick succession to seal the result. The visitors' late dominance left Bahia unable to respond, making it a decisive away triumph.
Outcome probability
Bahia and Flamengo face off in a regular season match where the home side is tipped to come out on top. With Bahia sitting fifth and Flamengo leading the league, this promises to be a tightly contested affair.
Match factors
Luciano Juba's scoring threat from defense
Luciano Juba is a rare high-scoring defender with 10 goals this season, posing a unique threat on set pieces and penalties.
Flamengo's superior scoring and assist stats
Flamengo leads with 16 goals from Pedro and 8 assists from Carrascal, showing stronger offensive output than Bahia.
Rodrigo Nestor's recent assist form
Nestor has 2 assists in last 5 games, indicating rising creative influence for Bahia.
Jorge Carrascal's creative midfield role
Carrascal's 8 assists and playmaking ability give Flamengo a creative edge in midfield.
Bahia's home scoring consistency
Bahia averages 1.53 goals per home game, supporting their predicted 2 goals in this fixture.
The context
Bahia currently hold fifth place with 49 points from 30 games, while Flamengo top the table with 64 points. Historically, Flamengo have dominated their head-to-head meetings, winning 16 of 20 encounters, but Bahia will be keen to upset the odds here.
Key insights
Luciano Juba
Bahia
Luciano Juba is a rare high-scoring defender with 10 goals this season, posing a unique threat on set pieces and penalties.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 26 apps, 0.38 avg per game
Pedro
Flamengo
Pedro leads Flamengo’s attack with 16 goals, showing consistent scoring form and a key offensive threat.
Serie A 26/2716 goals in 30 apps, 0.53 avg per game
J. Carrascal
Flamengo
Jorge Carrascal’s 8 assists make him Flamengo’s creative engine, crucial for unlocking defences.
Serie A 26/278 assists in 24 apps, 0.33 avg per game
Rodrigo Nestor
Bahia
Rodrigo Nestor’s recent form with 2 assists in last 5 games highlights his rising creative influence for Bahia.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 23 apps, 0.13 avg per game
Analysis
The prediction leans towards a home win with a 2-1 scoreline, supported by a halftime lead of 1-0. Bahia's top-scoring defender Luciano Juba, with 10 goals this season, poses a unique threat, especially at home where Bahia average 1.53 goals per game. Flamengo's offensive power is led by Pedro, their top scorer with 16 goals, and creative midfielder Jorge Carrascal, who has provided 8 assists. Rodrigo Nestor's recent form with Bahia also adds to their attacking potential. The match is expected to be competitive with around four cards likely, reflecting the intensity of the encounter.
Key facts
- 1.Bahia are 5th in the league with 49 points from 30 games.
- 2.Flamengo lead the league with 64 points from 30 games.
- 3.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo have won 16, Bahia 3, with 1 draw.
- 4.Bahia average 1.53 goals per home game this season.
- 5.Luciano Juba is Bahia's top scorer with 10 goals, an impressive tally for a defender.
- 6.Pedro is Flamengo's top scorer with 16 goals this season.
- 7.Jorge Carrascal leads Flamengo with 8 assists this season.
- 8.Prediction expects around 4 cards in the match, indicating a competitive game.
Prediction
Expect Bahia to take the lead by halftime and hold on for a 2-1 victory over Flamengo. The home side's scoring consistency and key players' form give them the edge in this closely matched contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bahia
Away — Flamengo
The verdict
While Flamengo have the historical upper hand and lead the league, Bahia's home form and standout performers make this a finely balanced game. The prediction favours Bahia to clinch a narrow win, making for an exciting match to watch.
Prediction generated 15 Oct 2026, 06:17 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pulgar
Yellow Card
Olivera
Yellow Card
Léo Pereira
Yellow Card
Jean Lucas
Yellow Card
Jorginho
Penalty
Marcos Victor
Acevedo
Olivera
Carrascal
Plata
Assist: Lino
Rodrigo Nestor
Pulga
Lino
Pedro
Paquetá
Assist: Varela
Léo Ortiz
Pulgar
Moreno
Yellow Card
Roman Gomez
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | +32 | 66 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
Match Statistics
Bahia
5-3-2Starting XI
- 1RonaldoG
- 3Marco MorenoD
- 5N. AcevedoM
- 6Jean LucasM
- 9A. VélizF
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 33David DuarteD
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 99C. OliveraD
Substitutes
- 4KanuD
- 7AdemirF
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 10Éverton RibeiroM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 14ErickM
- 15M. AraújoM
- 17G. HerreraG
- 23M. SanabriaF
- 27EveraldoF
- 31Roman GomezD
- 66Zé GuilhermeD
Flamengo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 9PedroF
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 19G. PlataM
- 21JorginhoM
- 22Emerson RoyalD
Substitutes
- 7Luiz AraújoF
- 11Lucas PaquetáM
- 14A. ValenciaF
- 18N. de la CruzM
- 26Alex SandroD
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 30J. FreitasF
- 42AndrewG
- 44VitãoD
- 49DyogoG
- 61João Victor CunhaD
- 77Johnny GóesD
Bahia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronaldo | G | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Alexandre | M | 25 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| M. Sanabria | F | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Ademir | F | 25 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| A. Véliz | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| David Duarte | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Erick Pulga | F | 75 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Luciano Juba | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Marcos Victor | D | 65 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Moreno | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Éverton Ribeiro | M | 15 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| C. Olivera | D | 65 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Jean Lucas | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| Roman Gomez | D | 25 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Rodrigo Nestor | M | 75 | 5.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| N. Acevedo | M | 65 | 5.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Everaldo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Araújo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Herrera | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kanu | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Willian José | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Guilherme | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Flamengo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Plata | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4/8 |
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 22 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3/3 |
| Jorginho | M | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 75 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2/2 |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 83 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| G. Varela | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Léo Pereira | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Rossi | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Carrascal | M | 68 | 7.2 | — | — | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3/3 |
| Emerson Royal | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Vitão | D | 7 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Pulgar | M | 83 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| N. de la Cruz | M | 7 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Freitas | F | 15 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 14 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro | F | 76 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | 3 | 1 | — |
| Luiz Araújo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Sandro | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Valencia | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dyogo | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Victor Cunha | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Johnny Góes | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bahia vs Flamengo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bahia to win against Flamengo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bahia vs Flamengo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bahia 2–1 Flamengo.
- What were the win probabilities for Bahia vs Flamengo?
- Fipster's model gave Bahia a 53% chance of winning, Flamengo a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 53% confidence — a medium-confidence call.