Bahia vs Cruzeiro
Match recap
Cruzeiro beat Bahia 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Juba scored for Bahia; Moraes and Kenji replied for Cruzeiro. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.12 for Bahia versus 1.52 for Cruzeiro. Bahia sit 7th in the Serie A table while Cruzeiro are 3rd.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Bahia win
Actual
1–2
Outcome probability
Bahia and Cruzeiro face off in a regular season clash where goals and momentum will be key. Both sides have shown glimpses of quality, but Bahia's attacking edge could prove decisive.
Match factors
Luciano Juba's attacking threat from defense
Luciano Juba is a prolific scoring defender with 10 goals this season, providing Bahia a unique attacking edge.
Matheus Pereira's dual threat for Cruzeiro
Matheus Pereira leads Cruzeiro with 9 goals and 5 assists, showing strong recent form and creativity.
Rodrigo Nestor's recent assist form
Rodrigo Nestor has 2 assists in last 5 games, boosting Bahia's midfield creativity and goal chances.
Éverton Ribeiro's set-piece and playmaking role
Éverton Ribeiro is Bahia's main creative midfielder and set-piece taker, key for unlocking defenses.
Cruzeiro's consistent scoring streak
Cruzeiro has scored in last 5 away games, showing offensive resilience despite defensive vulnerabilities.
The context
Currently sitting 5th and 6th respectively in the league, Bahia and Cruzeiro are neck and neck in the standings. Their recent encounters have been competitive, with Cruzeiro holding a slight edge historically. However, Bahia's home form and attacking threats make this an intriguing contest.
Key insights
Luciano Juba
Bahia
Luciano Juba is a prolific scoring defender with 10 goals this season, providing Bahia a unique attacking edge.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 26 appearances, 3 goals in last 5 games
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
Matheus Pereira leads Cruzeiro with 9 goals and 5 assists, showing strong recent form and creativity.
Serie A 26/279 goals and 5 assists in 27 appearances, 4 goals and 2 assists in last 5 games
Rodrigo Nestor
Bahia
Rodrigo Nestor has 2 assists in last 5 games, boosting Bahia's midfield creativity and goal chances.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 23 appearances, 2 assists in last 5 games
Éverton Ribeiro
Bahia
Éverton Ribeiro is Bahia's main creative midfielder and set-piece taker, key for unlocking defenses.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 20 appearances
Analysis
Bahia boast a standout attacking defender in Luciano Juba, who has netted 10 goals this season, providing a unique threat from the back. Their creative midfielders, including Éverton Ribeiro and Rodrigo Nestor, offer solid chance creation. Cruzeiro rely heavily on Matheus Pereira, who leads their scoring and assisting charts with 9 goals and 5 assists, showing excellent recent form. Despite Cruzeiro's consistent scoring streak away from home, Bahia's balanced attack and home advantage suggest they can outscore their opponents.
Key facts
- 1.Bahia are currently 5th in the league with 49 points from 30 games.
- 2.Cruzeiro sit just behind in 6th place with 48 points from 29 games.
- 3.Luciano Juba is Bahia's top scoring defender with 10 goals this season.
- 4.Matheus Pereira leads Cruzeiro with 9 goals and 5 assists this season.
- 5.Bahia have a strong home record contributing to their league position.
- 6.Cruzeiro have scored in their last 5 away games, showing offensive consistency.
- 7.The predicted final score is 3-1 in favour of Bahia.
- 8.The expected halftime score is 1-0 to Bahia.
Prediction
We predict Bahia to take the win with a 3-1 scoreline. The halftime score is expected to be 1-0 in favour of Bahia, setting the tone for a strong second half where they extend their lead. The match should see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bahia
Away — Cruzeiro
The verdict
Bahia's attacking depth and home advantage should see them through in this fixture. Cruzeiro will pose threats, particularly through Matheus Pereira, but Bahia's overall balance and recent form make them the favourites to secure all three points.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 09:46 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
João Paulo
Yellow Card
Fabrício Bruno
Yellow Card
Juba
Penalty
Willian José
Ramos
Yellow Card
Moraes
Assist: Villareal
Everaldo
Yellow Card
Matheus Pereira
Sanabria
Éverton Ribeiro
Villareal
Moraes
Yellow Card
Moraes
Jean Lucas
Pulga
Sinisterra
Romero
Yellow Card
Gerson
Kenji
Assist: Romero
Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
Match Statistics
Bahia
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 5N. AcevedoD
- 6Jean LucasM
- 10Éverton RibeiroM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 14ErickM
- 16Erick PulgaM
- 21S. RamosD
- 22Léo VieiraG
- 23M. SanabriaM
- 33David DuarteD
- 46Luciano JubaD
Substitutes
- 2GilbertoD
- 3Gabriel XavierD
- 7AdemirF
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 15M. AraújoM
- 25IagoD
- 27EveraldoF
- 31Roman GomezD
- 34João PauloG
- 43Luiz GustavoD
- 89DellF
- 99C. OliveraF
Cruzeiro
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 8Matheus HenriqueM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 11GersonM
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 17L. SinisterraM
- 22N. VillarealF
- 23FágnerD
- 29L. RomeroM
- 34JonathanD
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
Substitutes
- 7MarquinhosF
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 31Matheus CunhaG
- 43João MarceloD
- 44Bruno AlvesD
- 70KenjiF
- 77JapaM
- 88ChristianM
- 91Francisco da CostaF
- 94WandersonF
Bahia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton Ribeiro(C) | M | 61 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Nicolás Acevedo | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Luciano Juba | D | 90 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Willian José | F | 34 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Erick Pulga | M | 72 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| David Duarte | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Santiago Ramos Mingo | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Jean Lucas | M | 72 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Sanabria | M | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Léo Vieira | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Luiz Gustavo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dell | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Román Gómez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Xavier | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Paulo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iago Borduchi | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cristian Olivera | F | 18 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Ademir | F | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Michel Araújo | M | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everaldo | F | 56 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Nestor | M | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Cruzeiro
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kauã Moraes | D | 72 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Gerson | M | 78 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Lucas Romero(C) | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Jonathan Jesus | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio Costa | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Néiser Villarreal | F | 62 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| Luis Sinisterra | M | 72 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Matheus Henrique | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0/1 |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Fagner | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Bruno Alves | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Japa | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marquinhos | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Cunha | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Marcelo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chico da Costa | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaique Kenji | F | 45 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Lucas Villalba | D | 18 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | M | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaio Jorge | F | 28 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Wanderson | F | 18 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bahia to win against Cruzeiro.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bahia 3–1 Cruzeiro.
- What were the win probabilities for Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
- Fipster's model gave Bahia a 95% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.