Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense
Match recap
Bahia beat Atletico Paranaense 3–0 in their Serie A fixture. Everaldo, Everaldo, and Juba scored for Bahia. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.16 for Bahia versus 0.56 for Atletico Paranaense. Bahia sit 7th in the Serie A table while Atletico Paranaense are 4th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Bahia win
Actual
3–0
Outcome probability
Bahia and Atletico Paranaense face off in this regular season clash, with Bahia expected to leverage their attacking strengths to secure a home win.
Match factors
Luciano Juba's attacking threat from defense
Luciano Juba is a prolific scoring defender with 10 goals this season, providing Bahia an unusual attacking edge.
Kevin Viveros leads league scoring
Kevin Viveros tops the league with 19 goals, showing strong finishing and consistency for Atletico Paranaense.
Bahia's key scorers in good recent form
Luciano Juba and Everaldo have scored multiple goals in recent matches, boosting Bahia's scoring potential.
Gastón Benavídez's creative role from defense
Benavídez provides attacking width and 5 assists, enhancing Atletico Paranaense's chance creation from defense.
Bahia's recent win over Atletico Paranaense
Bahia won the last home match 3-0 with key contributions from Juba and Everaldo, indicating psychological edge.
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season's ninth round, where Bahia currently sit fifth in the league, while Atletico Paranaense hold third place. Both teams have shown competitive form, but Bahia's recent home performances and attacking options give them an edge.
Key insights
Luciano Juba
Bahia
Luciano Juba is a prolific scoring defender with 10 goals this season, providing Bahia an unusual attacking edge.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 26 apps, 3 goals last 5 games
- K
Kevin Viveros Rodallega
Atletico Paranaense
Kevin Viveros tops the league with 19 goals, showing strong finishing and consistency for Atletico Paranaense.
Serie A 26/2719 goals in 27 apps, 4 goals last 5 games
Everaldo
Bahia
Everaldo has been a key offensive threat, scoring twice in this fixture and boosting Bahia's scoring potential.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 18 apps, 2 goals vs Atletico Paranaense recently
Gastón Benavídez
Atletico Paranaense
Benavídez provides attacking width and 5 assists, enhancing Atletico Paranaense's chance creation from defence.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 22 apps
Analysis
Bahia's attacking prowess is highlighted by the contributions of Luciano Juba, a defender with an impressive 10 goals this season, and Everaldo, who scored twice in this fixture. Atletico Paranaense, despite a better goal difference and league position, face challenges breaking down Bahia's defence. The halftime score of 2-0 in favour of Bahia set the tone, with the home side maintaining dominance to finish 3-0. Discipline is expected to be moderate, with around four cards likely in the match.
Key facts
- 1.Bahia currently rank 5th in the league with 49 points from 30 games.
- 2.Atletico Paranaense are 3rd with 53 points and a superior goal difference.
- 3.Luciano Juba is a standout defender with 10 goals this season for Bahia.
- 4.Kevin Viveros Rodallega leads the league scoring charts with 19 goals.
- 5.Bahia won the last home meeting against Atletico Paranaense 3-0.
- 6.Everaldo scored twice in this fixture, highlighting his attacking impact.
- 7.The predicted total number of cards is four, indicating moderate discipline issues.
Prediction
We predict Bahia to win 3-1, reflecting their strong home form and attacking threats. The halftime score is expected to be 2-1, consistent with the flow of the match and scoring patterns observed this season.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Bahia
Away — Atletico Paranaense
The verdict
Bahia's combination of defensive solidity and attacking firepower should see them comfortably overcome Atletico Paranaense in this encounter, continuing their positive run in the league.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:33 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Everaldo
Assist: Jean Lucas
Duarte
Yellow Card
Everaldo
Assist: Juba
Jádson
Yellow Card
Everaldo
Yellow Card
Penalty cancelled
Luiz Gustavo
Terán
Julimar
Caio Alexandre
Jádson
Pulga
Éverton Ribeiro
Dudu
Olivera
Everaldo
Juba
Benavídez
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
Match Statistics
Bahia
4-3-3Starting XI
- 5N. AcevedoD
- 6Jean LucasM
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 10Éverton RibeiroM
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 21S. RamosD
- 22Léo VieiraG
- 27EveraldoF
- 33David DuarteD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 99C. OliveraF
Substitutes
- 2GilbertoD
- 3Gabriel XavierD
- 7AdemirF
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 14ErickM
- 15M. AraújoM
- 25IagoD
- 31Roman GomezD
- 34João PauloG
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 89DellF
Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 3LéoD
- 7S. MendozaM
- 9K. ViverosF
- 13C. TeránD
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 16JádsonM
- 20JulimarF
- 23SantosG
- 29G. BenavídezM
- 33J. AguirreD
- 53DuduF
Substitutes
- 1MycaelG
- 5FelipinhoD
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 26ClaudinhoD
- 27J. PortillaM
- 48BruninhoM
- 70Renan PeixotoF
Bahia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everaldo | F | 85 | 9.2 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Luciano Juba | D | 90 | 8.6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jean Lucas | M | 90 | 7.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Cristian Olivera | F | 85 | 7.5 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2/4 |
| Santiago Ramos Mingo | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Léo Vieira | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Duarte | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Acevedo | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick Pulga | F | 68 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Alexandre | M | 60 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Everton Ribeiro(C) | M | 68 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Rodrigo Nestor | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Paulo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Victor | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Xavier | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Román Gómez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dell | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Michel Araújo | M | 22 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iago Borduchi | D | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick | M | 30 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ademir | F | 22 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Willian José | F | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dudu | F | 78 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Luiz Gustavo | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julimar | F | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Steven Mendoza | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Carlos Terán | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jádson | M | 66 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gastón Benavídez | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Kevin Viveros | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Santos(C) | G | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Juan Felipe Aguirre | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Felipinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Claudinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto Junior | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leozinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Isaac | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mycael | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Camilo Portilla | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| João Cruz | M | 24 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Bruno Zapelli | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Leonardo Derik | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3/5 |
| Bruno Braga Ramos | M | 12 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Bahia to win against Atletico Paranaense.
- What score did Fipster predict for Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Bahia 3–1 Atletico Paranaense.
- What were the win probabilities for Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Fipster's model gave Bahia a 85% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.