Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
Match recap
Azerbaijan beat Lithuania 1–0 in their UEFA Nations League fixture. Xaybulayev scored for Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan held 38% possession to 62% for Lithuania.
Outcome probability
Azerbaijan and Lithuania face off in a League D encounter that promises a tight contest. Both teams have shown resilience in their recent matches, setting the stage for a competitive battle.
Match factors
Azerbaijan's Emreli vs Lithuania's defense
Emreli scored in last away match vs Lithuania, showing ability to exploit their defense
Lithuania's attacking consistency
Lithuania scored in both recent matches, showing strong offensive form
Mütəllimov's assist form
Mütəllimov assisted in last away match and maintains high assist rate for defender
Full squads available
No confirmed injuries or suspensions for either team, full squads likely
The context
In this league phase, Azerbaijan have played two matches without a win, drawing both and scoring once while conceding once. Lithuania, meanwhile, have a slightly better record with one win and one draw, netting three goals and conceding just one. Their previous head-to-head meeting ended in a draw, adding an extra layer of intrigue to this fixture.
Key insights
M. Emreli
Azerbaijan
Emreli scored in the last away fixture versus Lithuania, showing his knack for troubling their defence.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 1 appearance this season, 0.5 goals per game last 5
A. Kučys
Lithuania
Kučys scored a penalty and provided an assist recently, highlighting his key role in Lithuania's attack.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 2 appearances, 0.5 goals per game last 5
T. Mütəllimov
Azerbaijan
Mütəllimov has a high assist rate for a defender and provided an assist in the last away match, boosting Azerbaijan's attacking options.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 assist in 1 appearance, 0.5 assists per game last 5
Analysis
The probabilities lean slightly towards an away win for Lithuania, with a predicted 2-1 scoreline. The first half is expected to be cagey, likely ending goalless, before Lithuania find their rhythm in the second half. Key players such as M. Emreli for Azerbaijan, who scored in their last encounter, and Lithuania's A. Kučys, who has been involved in goals recently, will be pivotal. Both sides have full squads available, so expect a tactical and physical contest with a few cards along the way.
Key facts
- 1.Azerbaijan have played 2 matches in this competition (W0 D2 L0, GF 1 / GA 1).
- 2.Lithuania have played 2 matches in this competition (W1 D1 L0, GF 3 / GA 1).
- 3.Previous head-to-head meeting ended in a draw.
- 4.Predicted halftime score is 0-0, indicating a tight first half.
- 5.Most probable fulltime score is 1-2 in favor of Lithuania.
- 6.Total cards predicted in the match are 4.
- 7.M. Emreli scored in the last away match against Lithuania.
- 8.A. Kučys scored a penalty and provided an assist recently for Lithuania.
Prediction
We anticipate a 0-0 halftime score, with Lithuania edging out Azerbaijan 2-1 by fulltime. The away side's attacking consistency and recent form give them the slight edge in what should be a closely fought match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Azerbaijan
Away — Lithuania
The verdict
While the match could swing either way, Lithuania's ability to break the deadlock in the second half is likely to be the difference. Fans should brace for a competitive game with moments of quality from key players on both sides.
Prediction generated 1 Oct 2026, 17:54 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Xaybulayev
Assist: Bayramov
Xaybulayev
Yellow Card
Vorobjovas
Yellow Card
Utkus
Bayramov
Vorobjovas
Abbasov
Yellow Card
Red card cancelled
Dolžnikov
Yellow Card
İsgəndərli
Yellow Card
Məmmədov
Xaybulayev
Lickūnas
Slivka
Isaev
Lekiatas
Mütəllimov
Bədəlov
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Azerbaijan
3-4-3Starting XI
- 1E. BalayevG
- 2R. DaşdəmirovD
- 3R. AbbasovM
- 4R. MəmmədovD
- 6A. XaybulayevM
- 7T. BayramovF
- 10M. EmreliF
- 15B. HüseynovD
- 19T. MütəllimovM
- 20A. IsaevM
Substitutes
- 5A. KrivotsyukD
- 8E. MahmudovM
- 9R. DadashovF
- 11A. NuriyevM
- 12A. BayramovG
- 13E. SəfərovM
- 14E. BədəlovD
- 17V. İsgəndərliF
- 21R. AbdullazadəM
- 22M. QurbanlıF
- 23R. MirzəmmədovG
Lithuania
3-4-3Starting XI
- 3E. UtkusD
- 6M. VorobjovasM
- 7A. DolžnikovF
- 10A. KučysF
- 12T. ŠvedkauskasG
- 13J. LasickasM
- 14V. SlivkaF
- 15G. GineitisM
- 18V. ArmalasD
- 20R. LekiatasD
- 21A. LickūnasM
Substitutes
- 1L. PaukštėG
- 2A. TutyškinasD
- 4F. SteponavičiusF
- 5K. KažukolovasD
- 8D. ŠlutaM
- 9M. RuzgisF
- 11E. JankauskasF
- 16Lukas MichelbrinkM
- 17D. MalžinskasD
- 19I. VenckusF
- 22M. BurbaF
- 23D. BartkusG
Azerbaijan
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Xaybulayev | M | 64 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| B. Hüseynov | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Bayramov | F | 46 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| M. Emreli | F | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1/5 |
| R. Daşdəmirov | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| E. Səfərov | M | 26 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Abbasov | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| E. Bədəlov | D | 2 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Məmmədov | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Balayev | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Mütəllimov | M | 88 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| R. Dadashov | F | 26 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/3 |
| V. İsgəndərli | F | 44 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Isaev | M | 80 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Qurbanlı | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Mahmudov | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Krivotsyuk | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Mirzəmmədov | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bayramov | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Abdullazadə | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Nuriyev | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Lithuania
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Švedkauskas | G | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| R. Lekiatas | D | 83 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Kučys | F | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0/2 |
| V. Armalas | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Utkus | D | 46 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| K. Kažukolovas | D | 44 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lukas Michelbrink | M | 44 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| E. Jankauskas | F | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| I. Venckus | F | 7 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Dolžnikov | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/4 |
| M. Burba | F | 23 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| G. Gineitis | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| A. Lickūnas | M | 67 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/7 |
| V. Slivka | F | 68 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| M. Vorobjovas | M | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Lasickas | M | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| D. Šluta | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ruzgis | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Malžinskas | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Steponavičius | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Tutyškinas | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Bartkus | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Paukštė | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Lithuania to win against Azerbaijan.
- What score did Fipster predict for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Azerbaijan 1–2 Lithuania.
- What were the win probabilities for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
- Fipster's model gave Azerbaijan a 31% chance of winning, Lithuania a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 37% confidence — a low-confidence call.