AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II
Willem II snatch draw at AZ Alkmaar
A late strike from D. Haen earns Willem II a valuable point on the road.
AZ Alkmaar looked set for a comfortable win after J. Clasie put them ahead in the first half, but Willem II fought back with a crucial goal from D. Haen in the 81st minute to level the score. The 1-1 draw defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 3-0 home win, proving that football can still surprise even the sharpest forecasts.
Outcome probability
The new Eredivisie season kicks off with AZ Alkmaar facing newly promoted Willem II. Both teams are eager to make a strong start, but the visitors will find it tough to contain AZ's attacking prowess.
Key facts
- 1.AZ Alkmaar finished 7th last season with 52 points from 34 games.
- 2.Willem II are newly promoted to the Eredivisie this season.
- 3.AZ Alkmaar have a significantly better goal difference than Willem II.
- 4.AZ Alkmaar average 1.53 points per game compared to Willem II's 0.00 in the top flight.
- 5.AZ Alkmaar have strengthened their squad with three new signings this summer.
- 6.The predicted halftime score is 1-0 in favour of AZ Alkmaar.
- 7.The most probable fulltime score is 3-0 to AZ Alkmaar.
- 8.The match is expected to feature around four yellow cards.
The context
AZ Alkmaar finished 7th last season with 52 points from 34 games, showcasing a solid campaign. Willem II, on the other hand, are stepping up after promotion and will be looking to adjust to the top flight's demands. AZ's summer signings, including J. De Busser, S. Resink, and J. Hornkamp, add fresh options to their squad, while they have parted ways with S. Mijnans, T. Parrott, and Alexandre Penetra (on loan). Willem II have made no notable moves this summer.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — AZ Alkmaar
Away — Willem II
Analysis
The statistical outlook heavily favours AZ Alkmaar, with a 92% probability of a home win. Their goal difference advantage and points-per-game superiority underline their strength. The predicted halftime score of 1-0 aligns with a fulltime 3-0 result, suggesting AZ will control the match from the start. Willem II's challenge will be to withstand early pressure, but the gulf in quality and experience is expected to show.
Prediction
Expect AZ Alkmaar to take an early lead and maintain control throughout, finishing comfortably with a 3-0 victory. The match is also predicted to see around four cards, indicating a competitive but disciplined encounter.
The verdict
AZ Alkmaar look set to start their campaign on a high note, capitalising on their summer reinforcements and home advantage. Willem II face a tough baptism in the Eredivisie, but this match will provide valuable experience as they settle into the top tier.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Vilhena
Yellow Card
Clasie
Assist: Meerdink
Stengs
Clasie
van Loon
Vilhena
Meerdink
Haen
Assist: Uriel van Aalst
Kwakman
Daal
Slory
Dekker
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 19 |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +18 | 17 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -14 | 2 |
Match Statistics
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3W. GoesD
- 4L. SchoutenD
- 5M. ChávezD
- 6P. KoopmeinersM
- 8J. ClasieM
- 9M. MeerdinkF
- 11R. DaalM
- 14C. StengsM
- 21D. KwakmanM
- 22E. DijkstraD
- 28J. De BusserG
Substitutes
- 1R. Owusu-OduroG
- 2S. MaikumaD
- 7Weslley PatatiF
- 12H. VerhulstG
- 17V. ByskovM
- 18B. KovacsF
- 19J. HornkampF
- 24A. OufkirF
- 29W. HoedtD
- 31R. IchiharaD
- 34M. de WitD
Willem II
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3F. StamD
- 5H. ter AvestD
- 6C. TwigtM
- 7J. SloryM
- 9D. HaenF
- 19Uriel van AalstM
- 22Per van LoonM
- 23M. DekkerD
- 24N. Tjoe-A-OnD
- 26M. DelangheG
- 52T. VilhenaM
Substitutes
- 2A. CiranniD
- 8K. BoogaardM
- 14Jens MathijsenD
- 15A. Et-TaïbiD
- 17O. MartinF
- 21W. van der SteenG
- 28T. VerheydtF
- 31K. de LeeuwG
- 50E. GürbüzF
- 83M. LemmensD
AZ Alkmaar
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Clasie | M | 64 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Chávez | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| P. Koopmeiners | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 1/1 |
| W. Goes | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| R. Daal | M | 87 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6/7 |
| M. Meerdink | F | 78 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 5 | — | 1 | — |
| L. Schouten | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. De Busser | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Weslley Patati | F | 26 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| E. Dijkstra | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| A. Oufkir | F | 3 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Byskov | M | 26 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Hornkamp | F | 12 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| B. Kovacs | F | 3 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Stengs | M | 64 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 2/2 |
| D. Kwakman | M | 87 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| M. de Wit | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Verhulst | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Hoedt | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Maikuma | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Owusu-Oduro | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Ichihara | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Willem II
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Haen | F | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Uriel van Aalst | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/3 |
| M. Dekker | D | 89 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| N. Tjoe-A-On | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Delanghe | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Verheydt | F | 2 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Vilhena | M | 70 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Per van Loon | M | 70 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| J. Slory | M | 88 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| C. Twigt | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| H. ter Avest | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| K. Boogaard | M | 20 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Ciranni | D | 20 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Stam | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Gürbüz | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jens Mathijsen | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. de Leeuw | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Lemmens | D | 1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Martin | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Et-Taïbi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. van der Steen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
- Fipster's AI model predicted AZ Alkmaar to win against Willem II.
- What score did Fipster predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
- Fipster predicted a final score of AZ Alkmaar 3–0 Willem II.
- What were the win probabilities for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
- Fipster's model gave AZ Alkmaar a 95% chance of winning, Willem II a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.