AZ Alkmaar vs Twente
Twente snatch late win at AZ Alkmaar
Two late strikes from S. Ørjasæter and Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink secure a surprise victory.
Twente overturned expectations with a 2-0 victory over AZ Alkmaar, thanks to goals in the 84th and stoppage time by S. Ørjasæter and Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink respectively. The home side were left frustrated as their high-confidence prediction of a 2-1 win failed to materialise, making this result a notable upset against Fipster's call.
Outcome probability
AZ Alkmaar and Twente face off in a promising Eredivisie encounter, with both sides showing solid form this season. Expect a competitive match with goals from key players shaping the outcome.
Match factors
AZ's midfield scoring edge
Ro-Zangelo Daal's 4 goals from midfield provide AZ a scoring threat beyond forwards
Mateo Chávez's dual role impact
Chávez leads AZ in assists (3) and is strong defensively, balancing attack and defense
Meerdink's recent scoring form
Mexx Meerdink scored 3 goals in last 5 games, showing strong finishing form
AZ missing Hornkamp and Smit weakens attack and midfield
Confirmed outs Hornkamp (attacker) and Smit (midfielder) reduce AZ's depth and creativity
Weghorst's consistent scoring for Twente
Wout Weghorst's 4 goals and 2 assists make him Twente's key attacking focal point
The context
AZ Alkmaar currently sit second in the league with 20 points from 9 games, while Twente are fifth with 17 points from 8 games. Historically, AZ have the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, having won 11 of their 20 encounters against Twente.
Key insights
Ro-Zangelo Daal
AZ Alkmaar
Daal's 4 goals from midfield provide AZ a significant scoring threat beyond their forwards.
Eredivisie 26/274 goals in 8 appearances, 0.5 goals/game
- M
Mateo Chávez García
AZ Alkmaar
Chávez leads AZ in assists with 3 and contributes defensively with 24 tackles and 6 interceptions, balancing attack and defence.
Eredivisie 26/273 assists in 8 appearances, 0.375 assists/game
Mexx Meerdink
AZ Alkmaar
Meerdink has scored 3 goals in his last 5 games, showing strong finishing form and consistency.
Eredivisie 26/273 goals in 8 appearances, 0.375 goals/game
Wout Weghorst
Twente
Weghorst is Twente's key attacking focal point with 4 goals and 2 assists, consistently delivering.
Eredivisie 26/274 goals in 8 appearances, 0.5 goals/game
Analysis
AZ Alkmaar's midfield dynamo Ro-Zangelo Daal has been a standout performer, netting 4 goals in 8 appearances and providing a scoring threat beyond the forwards. Mateo Chávez García balances attack and defence with 3 assists and strong defensive stats, making him a key player in AZ's setup. Twente rely heavily on Wout Weghorst, who leads their scoring charts with 4 goals and also chips in with assists. Despite missing Hornkamp and Smit, AZ's attacking depth remains formidable, and their home advantage should see them maintain control.
Key facts
- 1.AZ Alkmaar have won 11 of 20 meetings against Twente.
- 2.AZ Alkmaar are 2nd in the league with 20 points from 9 games.
- 3.Twente are 5th with 17 points from 8 games.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 3.0 goals, supporting a higher scoring game.
- 5.Ro-Zangelo Daal has scored 4 goals in 8 appearances for AZ.
- 6.Mateo Chávez García leads AZ with 3 assists and strong defensive stats.
- 7.Wout Weghorst is Twente's top scorer with 4 goals and 2 assists.
- 8.AZ Alkmaar are missing Hornkamp and Smit due to injury.
Prediction
We predict AZ Alkmaar to take an early lead, going 1-0 up by halftime, and ultimately secure a 2-1 victory. The match is expected to feature around four cards, reflecting a competitive but fair contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — AZ Alkmaar
Away — Twente
The verdict
With solid form, key players firing, and a favourable head-to-head record, AZ Alkmaar look set to claim all three points in this tightly contested Eredivisie fixture.
Prediction generated 18 Oct 2026, 19:57 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Daal
Yellow Card
Dijkstra
Yellow Card
Pröpper
Yellow Card
Weidmann
Yellow Card
Hoedt
Daal
Oufkir
Yellow Card
van Rooij
Weghorst
Dijkstra
Byskov
Ørjasæter
Assist: Taha
Ørjasæter
Taha
Chávez
Weidmann
Red Card
Vennegoor of Hesselink
Assist: Drommel
Rots
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +25 | 26 |
| 3 |  Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +17 | 25 |
| 4 |  Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +18 | 24 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |  Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 21 |
Match Statistics
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4L. SchoutenD
- 5M. ChávezD
- 6P. KoopmeinersM
- 7Weslley PatatiM
- 9M. MeerdinkF
- 11R. DaalM
- 17V. ByskovM
- 21D. KwakmanM
- 22E. DijkstraD
- 28J. De BusserG
- 29W. HoedtD
Substitutes
- 1R. Owusu-OduroG
- 2S. MaikumaD
- 8J. ClasieM
- 14C. StengsM
- 18B. KovacsF
- 24A. OufkirF
- 30D. KasiusD
- 31R. IchiharaD
- 34M. de WitD
- 75H. de WitM
Twente
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3R. PröpperD
- 4R. NijstadD
- 6R. ZerroukiM
- 8D. WeidmannM
- 9W. WeghorstF
- 10Y. TahaM
- 11D. RotsM
- 16J. DrommelG
- 27S. ØrjasæterM
- 28B. van RooijD
- 29A. AdelgaardD
Substitutes
- 2M. RosiakD
- 7M. PjacaF
- 14K. HlynssonM
- 18Jordy BawuahM
- 20T. van den BeltM
- 22R. PasveerG
- 25Lucas Vennegoor of HesselinkF
- 31Yannick GerritsenG
- 39J. MeilinkD
AZ Alkmaar
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kwakman | M | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2/3 |
| Weslley Patati | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| W. Hoedt | D | 63 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Schouten | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| V. Byskov | M | 75 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| A. Oufkir | F | 27 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| C. Stengs | M | 15 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| M. Chávez | D | 87 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| E. Dijkstra | D | 75 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| B. Kovacs | F | 3 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Kasius | D | 15 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Clasie | M | 27 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. De Busser | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Koopmeiners | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. Daal | M | 63 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 4/4 |
| M. Meerdink | F | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | 4 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| M. de Wit | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. de Wit | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Ichihara | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Owusu-Oduro | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Maikuma | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Twente
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ørjasæter | M | 85 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4/7 |
| Y. Taha | M | 85 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 3 | 2/3 |
| J. Drommel | G | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Adelgaard | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| R. Pröpper | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| R. Nijstad | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| B. van Rooij | D | 73 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| M. Rosiak | D | 17 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| T. van den Belt | M | 5 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Zerrouki | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink | F | 17 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Pjaca | F | 5 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Rots | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. Weidmann | M | 88 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| W. Weghorst | F | 73 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Jordy Bawuah | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yannick Gerritsen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Pasveer | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Meilink | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Hlynsson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
- Fipster's AI model predicted AZ Alkmaar to win against Twente.
- What score did Fipster predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
- Fipster predicted a final score of AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Twente.
- What were the win probabilities for AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?
- Fipster's model gave AZ Alkmaar a 76% chance of winning, Twente a 12% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 76% confidence — a high-confidence call.