AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda
Match recap
AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda drew 3–3 in their Eredivisie fixture. Mijnans, Chávez, and Meerdink scored for AZ Alkmaar; Soumano, Soumano, and Talvitie replied for NAC Breda. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.45 for AZ Alkmaar versus 2.08 for NAC Breda. AZ Alkmaar sit 7th in the Eredivisie table while NAC Breda are 17th.
Analysis
As the Eredivisie season nears its climax, AZ Alkmaar host NAC Breda in what promises to be a competitive fixture. With both teams eager to finish strong, the home side's recent form and historical edge set the stage for an intriguing encounter.
AZ Alkmaar have demonstrated superior form this season, averaging 1.55 points per game compared to NAC Breda's 0.85. Historically, AZ have won half of their 18 meetings with NAC, underscoring their dominance. The match takes place at AZ's home ground, where they boast a strong scoring record.
AZ's attacking prowess is spearheaded by Troy Parrott, who has netted 10 goals in his last 10 games, maintaining a 1.2 goals per 90 minutes rate. Midfielder Sven Mijnans supports the frontline with 6 recent goals and solid passing stats. NAC Breda's defence has struggled away from home, conceding over two goals per game, which AZ are likely to exploit. The predicted halftime score of 1-0 aligns with AZ's tendency to start strong, while the fulltime 2-1 scoreline reflects NAC's resilience but ultimate shortfall.
Prediction
We confidently predict a 2-1 home win for AZ Alkmaar, with a halftime lead of 1-0. The match is expected to feature four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled game. AZ's superior form, home advantage, and key players' contributions make them favourites to secure all three points.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Home Attack vs Away Defense Mismatch
AZ's in-form forwards exploit NAC's weak away defense conceding 2+ goals per game
Superior Home Scoring Rate
AZ averages 2.25 goals at home vs NAC's 0.75 away, favoring home win
AZ's Positive Scoring Streak
AZ scored in last 5 home games, showing strong offensive momentum
Parrott's Consistent Scoring Against Lower Teams
Parrott has scored multiple goals against bottom-table teams this season
No Significant Injuries for AZ
AZ has full squad availability, maintaining tactical consistency
Key Takeaways
In summary, AZ Alkmaar's consistent scoring, solid defence, and home advantage should see them edge out NAC Breda in a closely fought match. Fans can expect an entertaining game with moments of quality and competitive spirit, culminating in a deserved home victory.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 9 of 18 meetings against NAC Breda.
- AZ Alkmaar's goal difference this season is +7; NAC Breda's is -23.
- AZ Alkmaar average 1.55 points per game, nearly double NAC Breda's 0.85.
- AZ Alkmaar score an average of 2.25 goals at home compared to NAC's 0.75 away.
- Troy Parrott has scored 10 goals in his last 10 games for AZ Alkmaar.
- NAC Breda concede over 2 goals per away game this season.
- The predicted total cards for the match is 4, indicating a competitive game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — AZ Alkmaar
Away — NAC Breda
No standout top scorers flagged for NAC Breda
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Mijnans
Assist: Parrott
Chávez
Assist: Mijnans
Parrott
Sowah
Reulen
Mahmutović
Chávez
Jensen
Hillen
Yellow Card
Soumano
Assist: Valerius
Ghalidi
Leemans
Clasie
Daal
Soumano
Assist: Oldrup Jensen
Meerdink
Yellow Card
Talvitie
Assist: Valerius
Meerdink
Assist: Patati
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 34 | 27 | 3 | 4 | +56 | 84 |
| 6 |  Utrecht | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | +13 | 53 |
| 7 |  AZ Alkmaar | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | +7 | 52 |
| 8 |  Heerenveen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +4 | 51 |
| 16 |  FC Volendam | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | -20 | 32 |
| 17 |  NAC Breda | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -23 | 29 |
| 18 |  Heracles | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | -50 | 19 |
Match Statistics
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Rome-Jayden Owusu-OduroG
- 3Wouter GoesD
- 5Alexandre PenetraD
- 6Peer KoopmeinersM
- 8Jordy ClasieM
- 9Troy Daniel ParrottF
- 10Sven MijnansM
- 15Mateo Chávez GarcíaD
- 17Isak Steiner JensenM
- 22Elijah DijkstraD
- 27Ro-Zangelo DaalM
Substitutes
- 2Seiya MaikumaD
- 7Weslley PatatiF
- 11Ibrahim SadiqF
- 18Rion IchiharaD
- 20Kasper BoogaardM
- 23Billy van DuijlD
- 24Ayoub OufkirF
- 30Denso KasiusD
- 33Matěj ŠínM
- 35Mexx MeerdinkF
- 41Jeroen ZoetG
- 45B. KovacsF
NAC Breda
4-4-2Starting XI
- 8Clint LeemansM
- 9Moussa SoumanoF
- 14Kamal Deen SowahM
- 15Enes MahmutovićD
- 16Maximilien BalardM
- 20Fredrik Oldrup JensenD
- 22Rio HillenD
- 25Cherrion ValeriusD
- 26Pepijn ReulenF
- 55Brahim GhalidiM
- 99Daniel BielicaG
Substitutes
- 1Roy KortsmitG
- 4Boy KemperD
- 7Charles-Andreas BrymF
- 21Jayden CandelariaD
- 24André Morgan Rami AyewF
- 31Konstantinos LamprouG
- 32Juho Jaakko TalvitieF
- 44T. GoosG
- 90Lewis Harry HoltbyM
AZ Alkmaar
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro | G | 90 | 8.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sven Mijnans | M | 90 | 8.6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Mateo Chávez | D | 57 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Jordy Clasie(C) | M | 70 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Alexandre Penetra | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Ro-Zangelo Daal | M | 70 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/5 |
| Troy Parrott | F | 37 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Elijah Dijkstra | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Isak Steiner Jensen | M | 57 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/5 |
| Peer Koopmeiners | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Wouter Goes | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Rion Ichihara | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bendegúz Kovács | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Billy van Duijl | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ibrahim Sadiq | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seiya Maikuma | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matěj Šín | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jeroen Zoet | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Weslley Patati | F | 33 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Mexx Meerdink | F | 53 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| Ayoub Oufkir | F | 20 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Denso Kasius | D | 33 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Kasper Boogaard | M | 20 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
NAC Breda
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moussa Soumano | F | 90 | 8.3 | 2 | — | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Cherrion Valerius | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | 2 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Clint Leemans(C) | M | 68 | 7.3 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Daniel Bielica | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kamal Sowah | M | 54 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Rio Hillen | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Maximilien Balard | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| Fredrik Jensen | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Brahim Ghalidi | M | 68 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| Pepijn Reulen | F | 55 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Enes Mahmutović | D | 55 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Boy Kemper | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Roy Kortsmit | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kostas Lamprou | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thomas Goos | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juho Talvitie | F | 35 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2/3 |
| Charles-Andreas Brym | F | 35 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Jayden Candelaria | D | 36 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Lewis Holtby | M | 22 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Ayew | F | 22 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |