AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen
AZ Alkmaar snatch thriller against Groningen
A seven-goal spectacle sees AZ overturn an early deficit to edge Groningen in a nail-biter.
Groningen started brightly with an early strike from J. Ondrejka, and despite taking a two-goal lead after the break through B. Willumsson and T. van Bergen, they couldn't hold on. M. Meerdink starred for AZ Alkmaar, scoring twice including a crucial stoppage-time penalty, while A. Oufkir and M. Chávez also found the net to complete the comeback. This 4-3 victory defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a narrow away win for Groningen, delivering an entertaining upset instead.
Outcome probability
AZ Alkmaar and Groningen are set for a lively clash in the regular season, with both sides eager to climb the league table. Expect a match full of attacking intent and tactical battles.
Match factors
AZ's midfield scoring edge
Ro-Zangelo Daal leads AZ with 5 goals, providing midfield threat that can exploit Groningen's defense
Mateo Chávez's dual role impact
Chávez excels defensively with 28 tackles and offensively with 3 assists, boosting AZ's transition play
Groningen's scoring streak
Groningen has scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong attacking form despite defensive vulnerabilities
Groningen's defensive absences
Confirmed outs Tyrique Mercera and M. Jeng weaken Groningen's defense, increasing AZ's scoring chances
The context
AZ Alkmaar currently sit 5th with 20 points from 11 games, while Groningen are 8th with 15 points from 10 matches. Historically, AZ have had the upper hand, winning 11 of their 19 meetings, but Groningen have shown resilience and goal-scoring form recently.
Key insights
Ro-Zangelo Daal
AZ Alkmaar
Leads AZ's scoring with 5 goals, providing a crucial midfield threat to exploit Groningen's defence.
Eredivisie 26/275 goals in 10 appearances, 0.5 avg per game
- M
Mateo Chávez García
AZ Alkmaar
Combines defensive solidity with attacking support, leading with 28 tackles and 3 assists.
Eredivisie 26/2728 tackles and 3 assists in 10 appearances
- B
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
Groningen
Top scorer for Groningen, contributing goals and assists, key to their recent scoring streak.
Eredivisie 26/27Multiple goals and assists in recent matches
Analysis
The first half is likely to be tightly contested, with a predicted 1-1 scoreline reflecting balanced play. AZ's midfield dynamo Ro-Zangelo Daal leads their scoring charts with 5 goals, providing a key threat. Defender Mateo Chávez García contributes both defensively and offensively, with 28 tackles and 3 assists, underpinning AZ's transition play. Groningen, despite defensive absences, have scored in their last five matches, showing attacking momentum. Their top scorer Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson has been influential, linking well with midfield and contributing goals.
Key facts
- 1.AZ Alkmaar have won 11 of 19 meetings against Groningen.
- 2.AZ Alkmaar rank 5th with 20 points from 11 games (W6 D2 L3).
- 3.Groningen are 8th with 15 points from 10 games (W4 D3 L3).
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 2.6 goals, aligning with the predicted 2-3 scoreline.
- 5.Ro-Zangelo Daal leads AZ with 5 goals in 10 appearances.
- 6.Mateo Chávez García has 28 tackles and 3 assists in 10 games.
- 7.Groningen have scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong attacking form.
- 8.Groningen face defensive challenges due to confirmed absences.
Prediction
The forecast is for Groningen to edge out AZ Alkmaar 3-2 in a high-scoring affair. After a competitive first half ending 1-1, Groningen are expected to pull ahead in the second half, capitalising on AZ's defensive vulnerabilities and their own attacking streak.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — AZ Alkmaar
Away — Groningen
No standout top scorers flagged for Groningen
The verdict
This encounter promises goals and drama, with Groningen's recent form and resilience likely to see them snatch a narrow victory. AZ Alkmaar will need to tighten up defensively and rely on key players like Daal and Chávez García to turn the tide.
Prediction generated 1 Nov 2026, 17:39 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Ondrejka
Meerdink
Assist: Daal
Willumsson
Assist: Ondrejka
van Bergen
Penalty confirmed
Rente
Yellow Card
Meerdink
Missed Penalty
Goes
Byskov
Clement
Yellow Card
Oufkir
Assist: Meerdink
Ondrejka
Csinger
Chávez
Schreuders
Dijkstra
Daal
Vaessen
Yellow Card
Vaessen
Red Card
Meerdink
Penalty
Koopmeiners
Yellow Card
Chávez
Hateboer
Red Card
Willumsson
de Jonge
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +25 | 26 |
| 4 |  Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +18 | 24 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |  Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 21 |
| 8 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 |  Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Cambuur | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
Match Statistics
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3W. GoesD
- 5M. ChávezD
- 6P. KoopmeinersM
- 9M. MeerdinkF
- 11R. DaalM
- 17V. ByskovM
- 21D. KwakmanM
- 22E. DijkstraD
- 24A. OufkirM
- 28J. De BusserG
- 29W. HoedtD
Substitutes
- 1R. Owusu-OduroG
- 2S. MaikumaD
- 8J. ClasieM
- 10K. SmitM
- 12H. VerhulstG
- 14C. StengsM
- 18B. KovacsF
- 20A. NataliD
- 30D. KasiusD
- 31R. IchiharaD
- 34M. de WitD
Groningen
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1E. VaessenG
- 3T. BlokzijlD
- 4M. CsingerD
- 5M. RenteD
- 8T. de JongeM
- 9B. WillumssonM
- 11J. OndrejkaM
- 14J. SchreudersM
- 24P. ClementM
- 26T. van BergenF
- 33H. HateboerD
Substitutes
- 2Wouter PrinsD
- 12M. BrandisD
- 13L. ŠtubljarG
- 15E. van der LaanD
- 16A. NordinM
- 18T. LandM
- 19O. ZawadaF
- 20Nils EggensF
- 29Tyrique MerceraD
- 30P. BoevinkG
- 42J. MosselaarD
- 44Besnik MashukuM
AZ Alkmaar
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Meerdink | F | 90 | 9.0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | — |
| A. Oufkir | M | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1/1 |
| R. Daal | M | 84 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 4 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| W. Hoedt | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Chávez | D | 96 | 6.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| D. Kwakman | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| W. Goes | D | 60 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| E. Dijkstra | D | 84 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| P. Koopmeiners | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Clasie | M | 30 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Byskov | M | 60 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| D. Kasius | D | 6 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| C. Stengs | M | 6 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. De Busser | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Smit | M | 30 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| R. Owusu-Oduro | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. de Wit | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Ichihara | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Natali | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Kovacs | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Verhulst | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Maikuma | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Groningen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Ondrejka | M | 73 | 7.9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2/4 |
| T. van Bergen | F | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| B. Willumsson | M | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Schreuders | M | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Blokzijl | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wouter Prins | D | 17 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| E. Vaessen | G | 88 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| H. Hateboer | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Land | M | 17 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. de Jonge | M | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Rente | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Csinger | D | 73 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyrique Mercera | D | 11 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Clement | M | 90 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Mosselaar | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Boevink | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Zawada | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Štubljar | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Brandis | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nils Eggens | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Nordin | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. van der Laan | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Besnik Mashuku | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Groningen to win against AZ Alkmaar.
- What score did Fipster predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
- Fipster predicted a final score of AZ Alkmaar 2–3 Groningen.
- What were the win probabilities for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
- Fipster's model gave AZ Alkmaar a 29% chance of winning, Groningen a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 41% confidence — a low-confidence call.