Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama storms back for away win
A second-half surge overturns Atletico Paranaense's early lead.
Atletico Paranaense looked set for victory after S. Mendoza's early strike, but Vasco DA Gama turned the game on its head with three goals after the break, including an own goal by J. Aguirre and strikes from Bruno Duarte and Gabriel Pereira. The 3-1 result defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a home win, delivering a surprise triumph for the visitors.
Outcome probability
Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama face off in the 34th round of the regular season, promising a competitive encounter. Both teams have shown moments of quality this season, but Atletico's stronger league position and goal difference suggest they hold the upper hand.
Match factors
Kevin Viveros' scoring prowess to lead Atletico attack
Viveros leads with 21 goals this season, significantly above league average for attackers, making him a key threat.
Atletico's strong home scoring form
Atletico averages 1.69 goals per home game, higher than league average, supporting predicted 2 goals.
Defensive gap for Atletico due to Benavídez's absence
Benavídez, a key defender and assister, is out injured, weakening Atletico's defense and creative outlet from back.
Leozinho's improving form as impact substitute
Leozinho has scored recently and shows strong ratings off the bench, adding attacking depth for Atletico.
Lucas Esquivel's dual defensive and creative role
Esquivel combines solid defensive stats with 5 assists, key for Atletico's build-up and set-pieces.
The context
Atletico Paranaense currently sit 4th in the league with 54 points, boasting a +12 goal difference, while Vasco DA Gama are 13th with 38 points and a -9 goal difference. Historically, Atletico have a slight edge in head-to-head meetings, winning 9 of 20 matches compared to Vasco's 6 wins, with 5 draws.
Key insights
- K
Kevin Viveros Rodallega
Atletico Paranaense
Viveros leads the league with 21 goals, making him a crucial threat for Atletico's attack this season.
Serie A 26/2721 goals in 30 games, 0.7 avg per game
Lucas Esquivel
Atletico Paranaense
Esquivel combines solid defensive work with 5 assists, playing a key role in Atletico's build-up and set-pieces.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 23 games, 0.22 avg per game
- G
Gastón Benavídez
Atletico Paranaense
Benavídez's absence due to injury weakens Atletico's defence and creative options from the back.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 28 games
Leozinho
Atletico Paranaense
Leozinho's recent form off the bench adds attacking depth and goal threat for Atletico.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 32 games, 0.16 avg per game
- C
Carlos Gómez Hinestroza
Vasco DA Gama
Top scorer for Vasco with 5 goals, though lacking recent goals, he remains a key creative presence.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 27 games, 0.18 avg per game
Analysis
The match is expected to be tightly contested, with a predicted 1-1 scoreline at halftime reflecting a balanced first half. Atletico's attack is spearheaded by Kevin Viveros Rodallega, who has netted 21 goals this season and is in strong form. Despite the absence of key defender Gastón Benavídez due to injury, Atletico's creative outlets like Lucas Esquivel and Leozinho provide attacking depth. Vasco's Carlos Gómez Hinestroza leads their scoring charts but has struggled for recent goals, which may limit Vasco's offensive threat.
Key facts
- 1.Atletico Paranaense rank 4th with 54 points; Vasco DA Gama are 13th with 38 points.
- 2.Atletico Paranaense have a +12 goal difference; Vasco DA Gama have -9.
- 3.In 20 head-to-head matches, Atletico have 9 wins, Vasco 6, with 5 draws.
- 4.Kevin Viveros Rodallega is the league's top scorer with 21 goals this season.
- 5.Atletico average 1.69 goals per home game, above the league average.
- 6.Gastón Benavídez is out injured, impacting Atletico's defensive stability.
- 7.Lucas Esquivel leads Atletico with 5 assists this season.
Prediction
We anticipate Atletico Paranaense to secure a 2-1 victory by fulltime, edging out Vasco DA Gama after a competitive first half. The home side's superior goal difference and attacking prowess should prove decisive in this encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Atletico Paranaense
Away — Vasco DA Gama
The verdict
This fixture promises an entertaining contest with Atletico Paranaense narrowly prevailing. Fans can expect a lively game with goals from key attackers and tactical battles across the pitch.
Prediction generated 30 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Jádson
Yellow Card
Mendoza
Assist: Luiz Gustavo
Sosa
Brenner
Mendoza
Lescano
Yellow Card
Aguirre (OG)
Assist: Cuiabano
Duarte
Assist: Rodríguez
Pereira
Assist: Colidio
Aguirre
Jádson
Lescano
Gómez
Viveros
Red Card
Vargas
Benavídez
Rodríguez
Dantas
Yellow Card
Dias
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | +42 | 76 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | +10 | 54 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | +5 | 53 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -9 | 40 |
Match Statistics
Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1MycaelG
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 7S. MendozaF
- 9K. ViverosF
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 16JádsonM
- 18K. VargasF
- 25DantasD
- 29G. BenavídezM
- 33J. AguirreD
- 37L. EsquivelM
Substitutes
- 5FelipinhoD
- 6DerikD
- 8João CruzM
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 12GilbertoD
- 19Jorge Luis Rivaldo PintoF
- 21LeozinhoF
- 23SantosG
- 27J. PortillaM
- 53DuduM
- 55Bruno BaldiniD
- 70RenanF
Vasco DA Gama
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1Léo JardimG
- 2J. RodríguezM
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 5S. SosaM
- 11A. GómezF
- 20BrennerF
- 22A. LescanoM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 30Robert RenanD
- 55Gabriel PereiraD
- 66CuiabanoM
Substitutes
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 7DavidF
- 8JairM
- 9F. ColidioF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 19Bruno DuarteF
- 28AdsonF
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Mendoza | F | 45 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | — | — |
| Lucas Esquivel | M | 86 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Luiz Gustavo(C) | M | 86 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Jádson | M | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Kerwin Vargas | F | 86 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/4 |
| Gastón Benavídez | M | 86 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Dias | D | 86 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Dantas | D | 86 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Viveros | F | 77 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/4 |
| Mycael | G | 86 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Felipe Aguirre | D | 69 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Santos | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Baldini | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dudu | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge Rivaldo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leonardo Derik | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Zapelli | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Portilla | M | 17 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leozinho | F | 17 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Cruz | M | 41 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
Vasco DA Gama
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiabano | M | 86 | 7.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| Gabriel Pereira | D | 86 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Alan Saldivia | D | 86 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Puma Rodríguez | M | 86 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Santiago Sosa | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Alan Lescano | M | 75 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Thiago Mendes(C) | M | 86 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brenner | F | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Renan | D | 86 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Léo Jardim | G | 86 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrés Gómez | F | 75 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Daniel Fuzato | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tchê Tchê | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Piton | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paulo Henrique | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nuno Moreira | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Freitas | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adson | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Duarte | F | 41 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Facundo Colidio | F | 41 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Jair | M | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramon Rique | M | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Atletico Paranaense to win against Vasco DA Gama.
- What score did Fipster predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Vasco DA Gama.
- What were the win probabilities for Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster's model gave Atletico Paranaense a 55% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 55% confidence — a medium-confidence call.