Atletico Paranaense vs Santos
Match recap
Atletico Paranaense beat Santos 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Julimar and Viveros scored for Atletico Paranaense; Thaciano replied for Santos. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.08 for Atletico Paranaense versus 0.73 for Santos. Atletico Paranaense sit 4th in the Serie A table while Santos are 8th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-3 Santos win
Actual
2–1
Outcome probability
Atletico Paranaense and Santos face off in what promises to be an entertaining clash in the regular season. Both teams have shown attacking intent, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter.
Match factors
Kevin Viveros' scoring threat vs Santos defense
Viveros leads Atletico Paranaense with 19 goals, exploiting Santos' defensive vulnerabilities
Gabriel Barbosa's prolific away scoring form
Barbosa scored 5 goals in last 5 away games, boosting Santos' attack potential
Benavídez's absence weakens Atletico Paranaense defense
Benavídez, a key defender and assister, is confirmed out with muscle injury
Santos' strong recent away scoring streak
Santos scored in last 5 away matches, supporting predicted 3 goals
Neymar's creative influence and set-piece role
Neymar provides key assists and set-piece threat, enhancing Santos' attack
The context
This match is part of the regular season's third round, with Atletico Paranaense sitting 4th in the league and Santos 8th. Historically, their head-to-head record is almost even, with Santos holding a slight edge in wins.
Key insights
- K
Kevin Viveros Rodallega
Atletico Paranaense
Viveros leads Atletico Paranaense with 19 goals, exploiting Santos' defensive vulnerabilities.
Serie A 26/2719 goals in 27 appearances, 0.7 goals/game
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
Barbosa scored 5 goals in last 5 away games, boosting Santos' attack potential.
Serie A 26/2713 goals in 22 appearances, 0.59 goals/game
- G
Gastón Benavídez
Atletico Paranaense
Benavídez, a key defender and assister, is out with a muscle injury, weakening Atletico's defence.
Neymar
Santos
Neymar provides key assists and set-piece threat, enhancing Santos' attacking play.
Serie A 26/278 goals and 3 assists in 13 appearances, 0.62 goals/game
Analysis
Atletico Paranaense boasts the league's top scorer, Kevin Viveros Rodallega, who has netted 19 goals this season and is a constant threat. However, Santos' Gabriel Barbosa has been prolific away from home, scoring five goals in his last five away matches. Neymar's creative influence and set-piece prowess add further firepower to Santos' attack. The absence of Atletico's key defender Gastón Benavídez due to injury could weaken their defensive stability, potentially tipping the scales in Santos' favour. Both teams have a history of close encounters, but Santos' recent away form and attacking depth suggest they will edge this one.
Key facts
- 1.Atletico Paranaense and Santos have nearly equal wins historically (8 vs 9) with 3 draws in 20 matches.
- 2.Atletico Paranaense ranks 4th in the league with 50 points from 29 games (W14 D8 L7).
- 3.Santos are 8th with 42 points from 29 games (W11 D9 L9).
- 4.Kevin Viveros leads Atletico Paranaense with 19 goals this season.
- 5.Gabriel Barbosa has scored 5 goals in his last 5 away games for Santos.
- 6.Gastón Benavídez is out injured, weakening Atletico Paranaense's defence.
- 7.Neymar contributes both goals and assists, enhancing Santos' attack.
Prediction
We predict a 3-2 victory for Santos, with their attacking trio making the difference despite Atletico Paranaense's strong home performance and Viveros' goal threat.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Atletico Paranaense
Away — Santos
The verdict
Expect an open, attacking game with plenty of goals. Santos' ability to score on the road and Atletico's defensive concerns make this a finely balanced contest, but the visitors should just come out on top.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Penalty confirmed
Julimar
Penalty
Thaciano
Gabriel Bontempo
Yellow Card
Portilla
Julimar
Unknown
Gabriel Bontempo
Terceros
Igor Vinicius
Yellow Card
Chiqueti
Yellow Card
Thaciano
Rony
Mendoza
Zapelli
Lira
Yellow Card
Lira
Viveros
Assist: Esquivel
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
Match Statistics
Atletico Paranaense
3-4-3Starting XI
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 7S. MendozaF
- 9K. ViverosF
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 13C. TeránD
- 20JulimarF
- 23SantosG
- 27J. PortillaM
- 29G. BenavídezM
- 37L. EsquivelD
Substitutes
- 1MycaelG
- 3LéoD
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 16JádsonM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 33J. AguirreD
- 47ChiquetiM
- 48BruninhoM
- 53Dudu
- 63Diogo RiquelmeM
Santos
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2Zé IvaldoD
- 3Vinicius LiraD
- 5João SchmidtM
- 11RonyF
- 14Luan PeresD
- 16ThacianoF
- 18Igor ViniciusD
- 25Gabriel MeninoM
- 30M. TercerosF
- 49Gabriel BontempoM
- 77Gabriel BrazãoG
Substitutes
- 1DiógenesG
- 7Nikita SolodchenkoF
- 8T. RincónM
- 12MaykeD
- 13João BassoD
- 19L. DíazF
- 21MoisésF
- 22Á. BarrealM
- 26João Paulo AnaniasD
- 31G. EscobarD
- 32B. RollheiserF
- 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Viveros | F | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/4 |
| Leonardo Derik | M | 67 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Bruno Zapelli | M | 89 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Lucas Esquivel | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Julimar | F | 67 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/5 |
| Santos(C) | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gastón Benavídez | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Carlos Terán | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Dias | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Camilo Portilla | M | 42 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Steven Mendoza | F | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Leozinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mycael | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Felipe Aguirre | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogo Riquelme | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto Junior | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Cruz | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dudu | D | 23 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Luiz Gustavo | M | 48 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Chiqueti | M | 23 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Bruninho Braga Ramos | M | 8 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jádson | M | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Santos
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thaciano | F | 88 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Luan Peres | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Ivaldo | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Schmidt(C) | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gabriel Menino | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Rony | F | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Brazão | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Bontempo | M | 68 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Miguelito | F | 68 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2/3 |
| Vinicius Rodrigues Lira | D | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Igor Vinícius | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/4 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| João Paulo Ananias | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamín Rollheiser | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Robinho Júnior | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogenes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Henrique Pereira | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Escobar | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mayke | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Rincón | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Barreal | M | 22 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Moisés | F | 22 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| João Basso | D | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lautaro Díaz | F | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Atletico Paranaense vs Santos?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Santos to win against Atletico Paranaense.
- What score did Fipster predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Santos?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Atletico Paranaense 2–3 Santos.
- What were the win probabilities for Atletico Paranaense vs Santos?
- Fipster's model gave Atletico Paranaense a 32% chance of winning, Santos a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.