Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense
Thrilling draw as Fluminense snatch late penalty
Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense share six goals in a pulsating Serie A clash.
Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense served up a six-goal spectacle ending 3-3, with Leozinho and G. Benavídez netting for the hosts and Hulk, A. Canobbio, and Ignacio replying for the visitors. The match saw Fluminense take the lead twice, only for Atletico Paranaense to equalise each time, culminating in a 90+5' penalty by K. Viveros to level the scores. This entertaining draw defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a narrow home win.
Outcome probability
Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense face off in what promises to be a closely fought battle between two sides sitting neck and neck in the league standings. Both teams have shown solid form this season, making this clash a tantalising prospect for fans of tight, tactical football.
Match factors
Viveros' scoring form vs Fluminense's defense
K. Viveros has 16 goals this season and strong recent form, likely to exploit Fluminense's defense
Benavídez's assist threat from defense
G. Benavídez leads home team with 5 assists, providing key chances from wide areas
Home scoring streak supports Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense has scored in 4 of last 5 home games, showing strong attacking momentum
Acosta's creativity for Fluminense
L. Acosta has 4 assists this season, key creative midfielder for away side
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, no confirmed absences affecting key players
The context
This fixture sees Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense, ranked third and fourth respectively with identical points, battle it out in the regular season. Their head-to-head history is perfectly balanced with eight wins apiece and four draws from 20 meetings, highlighting the competitive nature of this matchup. The average of 2.5 goals per game in their encounters suggests moderate scoring, so a cautious approach is likely.
Key insights
K. Viveros
Atletico Paranaense
League top scorer with 16 goals and strong recent form, likely to exploit Fluminense's defence.
Serie A 26/2716 goals in 23 appearances, 5 goals in last 5 games
G. Benavídez
Atletico Paranaense
Top assister with 5 assists, providing key chances from wide areas and set-pieces.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 20 appearances
L. Acosta
Fluminense
Creative midfielder with 4 assists, key playmaker for the away side.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 19 appearances
Analysis
Atletico Paranaense have the edge in recent home form, scoring in four of their last five home games, while Fluminense bring creativity through key players like L. Acosta, who has provided four assists this season. However, the standout performer is K. Viveros for Atletico Paranaense, boasting 16 goals this season and a hot streak with five goals in his last five games. Defensively, G. Benavídez’s five assists from the back add an extra dimension to Atletico’s attack. Both teams have full squads available, so expect a tactical chess match with Atletico Paranaense likely to edge it by a single goal.
Key facts
- 1.Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense have each won 8 of their 20 head-to-head matches, with 4 draws.
- 2.Their head-to-head matches average 2.5 goals, indicating moderate scoring.
- 3.Atletico Paranaense are 3rd in the league with 41 points from 23 games (12 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses).
- 4.Fluminense sit 4th with 41 points from 24 games (11 wins, 8 draws, 5 losses).
- 5.K. Viveros is the league top scorer for Atletico Paranaense with 16 goals this season.
- 6.G. Benavídez leads Atletico Paranaense with 5 assists, providing key chances from defence.
- 7.Both teams have full squads available with no confirmed injuries.
- 8.Atletico Paranaense have scored in 4 of their last 5 home games, showing strong attacking momentum.
Prediction
The prediction is a 1-0 win for Atletico Paranaense, with the home side scoring early and holding on to their lead. The halftime score is also expected to be 1-0, reflecting Atletico’s ability to start strong and maintain defensive discipline. The match is likely to see around four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Atletico Paranaense
Away — Fluminense
No standout top scorers flagged for Fluminense
The verdict
In summary, this fixture is set to be a tight affair with Atletico Paranaense’s recent scoring form and home advantage tipping the scales. Fluminense will pose threats through their creative midfield, but the home side’s defensive solidity and attacking sharpness should secure the narrow victory.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Leozinho
Assist: Mendoza
Hulk
PH Ganso
Yellow Card
Benavídez
Benavídez
Yellow Card
Soteldo
PH Ganso
Canobbio
Leozinho
Unknown
Nonato
Yellow Card
Ignacio
Assist: Hulk
Viveros
Yellow Card
Luiz Gustavo
Aguirre
Goal Disallowed - offside
Canobbio
Hulk
Viveros
Penalty
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | +26 | 56 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | +30 | 54 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | +8 | 43 |
Match Statistics
Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 7S. MendozaM
- 8João CruzF
- 9K. ViverosF
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 16JádsonM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 23SantosG
- 25DantasD
- 29G. BenavídezM
- 33J. AguirreD
Substitutes
- 1MycaelG
- 2GilbertoD
- 3LéoD
- 5FelipinhoD
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 11IsaacF
- 18K. VargasF
- 19Jorge Luis Rivaldo PintoF
- 22C. TeránD
- 53DuduM
- 63Diogo RiquelmeM
- 70Renan PeixotoF
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1FábioG
- 4IgnacioD
- 6RenêD
- 7HulkF
- 8MartinelliM
- 10PH GansoM
- 16NonatoM
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 23GugaD
- 29J. MillánD
- 30Y. SoteldoM
Substitutes
- 3Thiago SilvaD
- 11J. SavarinoF
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 14G. CanoF
- 19R. CastilloF
- 27MarceloG
- 28RiquelmeF
- 32L. AcostaM
- 44JemmesD
- 46Julio FidelisD
- 90K. SernaF
- 94OtávioM
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leozinho | F | 71 | 8.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Gastón Benavídez | M | 95 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Steven Mendoza | M | 95 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | 2/2 |
| Kevin Viveros | F | 95 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Jádson | M | 95 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Cruz | F | 71 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Luiz Gustavo | M | 83 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Dias | D | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Juan Felipe Aguirre | D | 83 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Dantas | D | 95 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Santos(C) | G | 95 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Carlos Terán | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogo Riquelme | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto Junior | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Isaac | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mycael | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kerwin Vargas | F | 24 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Bruno Zapelli | M | 12 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jorge Rivaldo | F | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Dudu | M | 24 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
Fluminense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hulk | F | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2/2 |
| Agustín Canobbio | M | 89 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Fábio | G | 95 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nonato | M | 95 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ignácio | D | 95 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Martinelli | M | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Renê | D | 95 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ganso(C) | M | 59 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Yeferson Soteldo | M | 59 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Julián Millán | D | 95 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Guga | D | 95 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Rodrigo Castillo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jemmes | D | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riquelme Felipe | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Germán Cano | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Silva | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jefferson Savarino | F | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Júlio Fidelis | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Pitaluga | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luciano Acosta | M | 36 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Kevin Serna | F | 36 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |