Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba
Match recap
Atletico Paranaense beat Coritiba 2–0 in their Serie A fixture. Dudu and Viveros scored for Atletico Paranaense. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.86 for Atletico Paranaense versus 0.13 for Coritiba. Atletico Paranaense sit 4th in the Serie A table while Coritiba are 12th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-1 Atletico Paranaense win
Actual
2–0
Outcome probability
Atletico Paranaense and Coritiba face off in a Brazilian league regular season match where the home side is expected to flex their offensive muscles. With Atletico Paranaense sitting comfortably higher in the standings and boasting a superior goal difference, the stage is set for a dominant display.
Match factors
Atletico Paranaense's potent attack led by Kevin Viveros
Viveros' 19 goals this season and strong recent form give Atletico a clear attacking edge
Coritiba's top assister Josué drives creativity
Josué's 10 assists this season highlight his key role in creating chances for Coritiba
Atletico Paranaense missing key defender Gastón Benavídez
Benavídez's absence weakens Atletico's defense and reduces attacking support from defense
Atletico Paranaense's strong home scoring streak
Atletico has scored in last 5 home games, supporting predicted 4 goals in this match
Coritiba's Pedro Rocha key to breaking Atletico defense
Rocha's recent goals and consistent starts make him a primary threat for Coritiba
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season's eighth round in the Brazilian league. Atletico Paranaense currently rank 4th with 50 points from 29 games, while Coritiba trail behind. Historically, Atletico Paranaense have the edge in head-to-head meetings, having won 8 of their 20 encounters against Coritiba's 5 victories.
Key insights
- K
Kevin Viveros Rodallega
Atletico Paranaense
Viveros' 19 goals this season and recent scoring form give Atletico a clear attacking edge.
Serie A 26/2719 goals in 27 appearances, 0.7 goals/game
Josué
Coritiba
Josué's 10 assists highlight his key role in creating chances for Coritiba.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 26 appearances, 0.38 assists/game
Pedro Rocha
Coritiba
Rocha's recent goals and consistent starts make him a primary threat for Coritiba.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 28 appearances, 0.29 goals/game
Analysis
Atletico Paranaense's attacking threat is spearheaded by Kevin Viveros, who has netted 19 goals this season and scored in this fixture. Their home form is strong, having scored in their last five home games, which supports the prediction of a high-scoring win. Coritiba's creativity largely depends on Josué, their top assister with 10 assists, but their recent goal drought and weaker defensive record suggest they will struggle to contain Atletico's firepower. The absence of Atletico's defender Gastón Benavídez might slightly weaken their defence, but their offensive strength should more than compensate.
Key facts
- 1.Atletico Paranaense are ranked 4th in the league with 50 points from 29 games.
- 2.Atletico Paranaense have a better goal difference (+21) than Coritiba this season.
- 3.In 20 head-to-head matches, Atletico Paranaense have won 8, Coritiba 5, with 7 draws.
- 4.Kevin Viveros is Atletico Paranaense's top scorer with 19 goals this season.
- 5.Josué leads Coritiba with 10 assists, highlighting his creative role.
- 6.Atletico Paranaense have scored in their last five home games.
- 7.Predicted total cards for the match is 4, indicating moderate discipline issues.
Prediction
We predict a convincing 4-1 victory for Atletico Paranaense, with a halftime lead of 2-0. The match is expected to be competitive but ultimately dominated by the home side's superior attacking quality and form. The game will likely see around four cards, reflecting a moderately physical contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Atletico Paranaense
Away — Coritiba
The verdict
In summary, Atletico Paranaense's superior league position, goal difference, and attacking talent make them the clear favourites to win this match comfortably. Coritiba will need a near-perfect performance to upset the odds, but the signs point to a home win with plenty of goals.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:25 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Dudu
Assist: Julimar
Breno Lopes
Yellow Card
Luiz Gustavo
Viveros
Assist: Benavídez
Lucas Ronier
Breno Lopes
Wallisson
Yellow Card
Rocha
Wallisson
Julimar
Esquivel
Melo
Dudu
Card upgrade
Maicon
Red Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
Match Statistics
Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 7S. MendozaM
- 9K. ViverosF
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 16JádsonM
- 20JulimarF
- 23SantosG
- 29G. BenavídezM
- 33J. AguirreD
- 37L. EsquivelD
- 53DuduF
Substitutes
- 1MycaelG
- 3LéoD
- 5FelipinhoD
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 26ClaudinhoD
- 27J. PortillaM
- 47ChiquetiM
- 70Renan PeixotoF
Coritiba
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3MaiconD
- 8WallissonM
- 10JosuéM
- 11Lucas RonierM
- 12Pedro RangelG
- 19S. GómezM
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 44João Pedro ChermontD
- 55JacyD
- 77Breno LopesM
Substitutes
- 2TingaD
- 6Felipe JonatanD
- 7J. LavegaF
- 13KeillerG
- 20KenoF
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 28FabinhoF
- 29Willian OliveiraM
- 36Vini PaulistaF
- 39GustavoM
- 88Fernando SobralM
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dudu | F | 87 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Gastón Benavídez | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Julimar | F | 74 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Juan Felipe Aguirre | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Esquivel | D | 75 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kevin Viveros | F | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| Steven Mendoza | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Arthur Dias | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jádson | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santos(C) | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luiz Gustavo | M | 44 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Felipinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mycael | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leonardo Derik | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leozinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Cruz | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Claudinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Camilo Portilla | M | 46 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Gilberto Junior | D | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Bruno Zapelli | M | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chiqueti | M | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Coritiba
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Rangel | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Rocha | F | 68 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Josué | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Breno Lopes | M | 58 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Wallisson Luiz | M | 68 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Jacy Maranhão | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Ronier | M | 58 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| João Pedro Chermont | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Sebastian Gomez(C) | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Melo | D | 86 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maicon | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Thiago Santos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fernando Sobral | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Cóser | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Willian Oliveira | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keiller | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tinga | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vini Paulista | F | 22 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Jonatan | D | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabinho | F | 32 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keno | F | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/6 |
| Joaquín Lavega | F | 32 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Atletico Paranaense to win against Coritiba.
- What score did Fipster predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Atletico Paranaense 4–1 Coritiba.
- What were the win probabilities for Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
- Fipster's model gave Atletico Paranaense a 95% chance of winning, Coritiba a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.