Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians
Match recap
Corinthians beat Atletico Paranaense 1–0 in their Serie A fixture. Garro scored for Corinthians. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.10 for Atletico Paranaense versus 0.12 for Corinthians. Atletico Paranaense sit 4th in the Serie A table while Corinthians are 17th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-1 Atletico Paranaense win
Actual
0–1
Outcome probability
Atletico Paranaense and Corinthians face off in the second round of the regular season, with Atletico Paranaense looking to assert their dominance after a strong start to the campaign.
Match factors
Atletico Paranaense's attacking edge through Viveros
Kevin Viveros leads with 19 goals this season, significantly outscoring any Corinthians player, providing a clear attacking focal point.
Corinthians weakened by key attacker suspension
Rodrigo Garro, top assister with 6 assists, is confirmed out due to suspension, reducing creative options for Corinthians.
Atletico's superior assist contribution from defenders and midfielders
Lucas Esquivel and João Cruz provide high assist rates (5 each), exceeding league averages for their positions, boosting Atletico's chance creation.
Atletico Paranaense's strong home scoring streak
Atletico have scored in their last 5 home games, indicating strong offensive momentum at home.
Corinthians defensive solidity challenged by Atletico's pace
Atletico's attackers, led by Viveros, have pace and finishing ability that could exploit Corinthians' defense, especially with some defensive absences.
The context
Atletico Paranaense currently sit 4th in the league with 50 points from 29 games, boasting a positive goal difference of +11. Corinthians, on the other hand, are struggling in 16th place with 32 points and a -4 goal difference. Historically, Corinthians have had the upper hand in head-to-head meetings, but recent form clearly favours Atletico Paranaense.
Key insights
- K
Kevin Viveros Rodallega
Atletico Paranaense
League top scorer with 19 goals, well above positional average, and strong recent form with 3 goals in last 5 games.
Serie A 26/2719 goals in 27 apps, 0.7 goals/game
Lucas Esquivel
Atletico Paranaense
Top assister with 5 assists, strong recent form, and key wide defender contributing to attack.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 21 apps, 0.24 assists/game
João Cruz
Atletico Paranaense
Creative midfielder with 5 assists this season, good key pass rate, and strong connection with top scorer Viveros.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 28 apps, 0.18 assists/game
- R
Rodrigo Garro
Corinthians
Key attacker and top assister with 6 assists is suspended, weakening Corinthians' attacking options.
Serie A 26/276 assists in 27 apps
Analysis
Atletico Paranaense's attacking threat is spearheaded by Kevin Viveros Rodallega, who has netted 19 goals this season and is in fine form with three goals in his last five outings. The home side's creativity is further boosted by Lucas Esquivel and João Cruz, both contributing five assists each. Corinthians will miss key attacker Rodrigo Garro due to suspension, which significantly weakens their offensive options. Atletico's pace and clinical finishing are expected to exploit Corinthians' defensive vulnerabilities, especially given their current league struggles.
Key facts
- 1.Atletico Paranaense are 4th in the league with 50 points from 29 games.
- 2.Corinthians sit 16th with 32 points from 29 games.
- 3.Atletico Paranaense have a goal difference of +11; Corinthians have -4.
- 4.Kevin Viveros Rodallega leads Atletico with 19 goals this season.
- 5.Rodrigo Garro is suspended for Corinthians, reducing their attacking threat.
- 6.Lucas Esquivel and João Cruz each have 5 assists, boosting Atletico's creativity.
- 7.Atletico Paranaense have scored in their last 5 home games.
- 8.The predicted halftime score is 2-0, with a fulltime score of 4-1.
Prediction
We anticipate Atletico Paranaense to take control early, reflected in a predicted halftime lead of 2-0. Their dominance should continue into the second half, culminating in a comprehensive 4-1 victory. The match is also expected to feature moderate disciplinary action, with around four cards likely to be shown.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Atletico Paranaense
Away — Corinthians
The verdict
All signs point to a strong performance from Atletico Paranaense, who have the form, firepower, and tactical edge to secure a convincing win over Corinthians. Fans can expect an entertaining display with plenty of goals and attacking flair.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:39 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bidu
Yellow Card
Matheuzinho
Yellow Card
Garro
Viveros
Yellow Card
Santos
Yellow Card
Portilla
Charles
Garro
Vitinho
Julimar
Gabriel Paulista
Yellow Card
Esquivel
Pereira
Depay
Mendoza
Zapelli
João Cruz
Yellow Card
Souza
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
Match Statistics
Atletico Paranaense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 7S. MendozaM
- 9K. ViverosF
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 13C. TeránD
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 20JulimarM
- 23SantosG
- 27J. PortillaM
- 29G. BenavídezD
- 37L. EsquivelD
Substitutes
- 1MycaelG
- 3LéoD
- 5FelipinhoD
- 16JádsonM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 33J. AguirreD
- 47ChiquetiM
- 48BruninhoM
- 53Dudu
Corinthians
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 8R. GarroM
- 10M. DepayF
- 11VitinhoM
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 14RanieleM
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 23Matheus PereiraM
- 35CharlesM
Substitutes
- 4João PedroD
- 5André RamalhoD
- 18Pedro RaulF
- 19A. CarrilloM
- 20P. MilansD
- 29AllanM
- 31KaykeF
- 40Felipe LongoG
- 49AndreM
- 54Luiz GustavoM
- 56Guilherme InácioF
- 61DieguinhoM
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Dias | D | 104 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Carlos Terán | D | 104 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Luiz Gustavo | M | 104 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | 2/2 |
| Stiven Mendoza | M | 82 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Lucas Esquivel | D | 70 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Gastón Benavídez | D | 104 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Camilo Portilla | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Zapelli | M | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Kevin Viveros | F | 104 | 6.2 | — | — | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1/5 |
| Santos(C) | G | 104 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Julimar | M | 67 | 5.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jádson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto Junior | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leozinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Felipe Aguirre | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mycael | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leonardo Derik | D | 34 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chiqueti | M | 59 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Dudu | D | 22 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruninho Braga Ramos | M | 37 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| João Cruz | M | 22 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Corinthians
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Garro(C) | M | 61 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Gabriel Paulista | D | 104 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Henrique | D | 104 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raniele | M | 104 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Matheuzinho | D | 104 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo Souza | G | 104 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 75 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitinho | M | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Charles | M | 61 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Bidu | D | 104 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Memphis Depay | F | 82 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Dieguinho | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Milans | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bahia | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Longo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro Tchoca | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kayke Ferrari | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Raul | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Ramalho | D | 29 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Carrillo | M | 22 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| André Luiz | M | 43 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Allan | M | 43 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gui Negão | F | 43 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Atletico Paranaense to win against Corinthians.
- What score did Fipster predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Atletico Paranaense 4–1 Corinthians.
- What were the win probabilities for Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians?
- Fipster's model gave Atletico Paranaense a 91% chance of winning, Corinthians a 4% chance, and a 5% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 91% confidence — a high-confidence call.