Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc
Match recap
Atletico Paranaense beat Chapecoense-sc 2–0 in their Serie A fixture. Mendoza and Viveros scored for Atletico Paranaense. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.23 for Atletico Paranaense versus 0.18 for Chapecoense-sc. Atletico Paranaense sit 4th in the Serie A table while Chapecoense-sc are 20th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-1 Atletico Paranaense win
Actual
2–0
Outcome probability
Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc face off in the 11th round of the regular season, with Atletico Paranaense expected to continue their strong league form against a struggling Chapecoense-sc side.
Match factors
Kevin Viveros' scoring prowess vs Chapecoense defense
Viveros leads Atletico Paranaense with 19 goals, exploiting Chapecoense's weak defense likely to be decisive
Atletico Paranaense's strong home scoring form
Atletico Paranaense averages 1.8 goals per home game, above league average, supporting predicted 4 goals
João Cruz's creative form boosts Atletico attack
João Cruz has 5 assists this season and recent key passes, enhancing goal chances for teammates
Chapecoense's limited scoring threats
Chapecoense's top scorer Marcinho has 5 goals with moderate recent form, limiting their offensive threat
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so no impact from missing key players
The context
Atletico Paranaense currently sit 3rd in the league with 53 points from 30 games, boasting a healthy goal difference of +45. Chapecoense-sc, on the other hand, are 20th with 18 points from 29 games, highlighting a significant gap in performance between the two sides.
Key insights
- K
Kevin Viveros Rodallega
Atletico Paranaense
Viveros leads Atletico Paranaense with 19 goals this season, including 4 in the last 5 matches, making him a constant threat to Chapecoense-sc's defence.
Serie A 26/2719 goals in 27 apps, 0.7 goals/game
João Cruz
Atletico Paranaense
Creative midfielder João Cruz has 5 assists this season, providing key passes that boost Atletico Paranaense's attacking options.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 22 apps, 0.23 assists/game
- M
Marcinho
Chapecoense-sc
Marcinho is Chapecoense-sc's top scorer with 5 goals, but his moderate form limits the team's offensive threat.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 20 apps, 0.25 goals/game
Analysis
Atletico Paranaense have the edge in this fixture, having won 5 of their 19 head-to-head meetings against Chapecoense-sc, who have only won twice, with the rest ending in draws. The home side's attacking threat is spearheaded by Kevin Viveros Rodallega, the league's top scorer with 19 goals this season, including a strong recent run of 4 goals in the last 5 matches. Creative midfielder João Cruz, with 5 assists, is also key to unlocking Chapecoense-sc's defence. Meanwhile, Chapecoense-sc's offensive threat is limited, with their top scorer Marcinho netting just 5 goals this season.
Key facts
- 1.Atletico Paranaense are 3rd in the league with 53 points from 30 games.
- 2.Chapecoense-sc are 20th with 18 points from 29 games.
- 3.Atletico Paranaense have a goal difference of +45, significantly better than Chapecoense-sc.
- 4.In 19 head-to-head matches, Atletico Paranaense have 5 wins, Chapecoense-sc 2, and 12 draws.
- 5.Kevin Viveros Rodallega is the league's top scorer with 19 goals this season.
- 6.João Cruz has provided 5 assists for Atletico Paranaense this season.
- 7.Predicted halftime score is 2-0 in favour of Atletico Paranaense.
- 8.Total cards predicted in the match are 4.
Prediction
The prediction is a confident 4-1 victory for Atletico Paranaense. They are expected to take an early lead, reflected in the predicted 2-0 halftime score, and continue to dominate throughout the match. The total number of cards is expected to be around four, indicating a competitive but controlled game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Atletico Paranaense
Away — Chapecoense-sc
No standout top scorers flagged for Chapecoense-sc
The verdict
In summary, Atletico Paranaense's superior league position, goal-scoring prowess, and home advantage make them strong favourites to claim a convincing win over Chapecoense-sc. Fans can anticipate an entertaining match with plenty of goals and a clear winner by full time.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:18 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bolasie
Yellow Card
Julimar
Yellow Card
Portilla
Julimar
Bolasie
Mendoza
Neto Pessoa
Yellow Card
Doma
Yellow Card
Dudu
Bruno Leonardo
Yellow Card
Ênio
Italo
Zapelli
Yellow Card
Higor Meritão
João Vitor
Viveros
Mendoza
Viveros
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
Match Statistics
Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 7S. MendozaM
- 9K. ViverosF
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 20JulimarF
- 23SantosG
- 27J. PortillaM
- 33J. AguirreD
- 37L. EsquivelD
- 53DuduF
Substitutes
- 1MycaelG
- 3LéoD
- 5FelipinhoD
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 16JádsonM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 26ClaudinhoD
- 48BruninhoM
- 70Renan PeixotoF
Chapecoense-sc
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Rafael SantosG
- 2Marcos ViníciusD
- 3DomaD
- 5João VitorM
- 11Y. BolasieF
- 22Higor MeritãoM
- 27CamiloM
- 33Bruno LeonardoD
- 77ItaloM
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 97ÊnioM
Substitutes
- 4João PauloD
- 7MarcinhoF
- 17Vinicius BalieiroM
- 18Neto PessoaF
- 19David AntunesM
- 20Jean CarlosM
- 25Victor CaetanoD
- 31GarcezF
- 37W. ClarD
- 70RubensM
- 98AndersonG
- 99Rafael CarvalheiraF
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Dias | D | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Steven Mendoza | M | 86 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Kevin Viveros | F | 86 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| Lucas Esquivel | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Gilberto Junior | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Luiz Gustavo | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Camilo Portilla | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Santos(C) | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Felipe Aguirre | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dudu | F | 62 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Julimar | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Claudinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mycael | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jádson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leozinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Isaac | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leonardo Derik | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Zapelli | M | 45 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Felipinho | D | 10 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| João Cruz | M | 28 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Bruno Braga Ramos | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 4/7 |
| Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno | F | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Chapecoense-sc
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Doma | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Ênio | M | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Bruno Leonardo(C) | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Vinícius | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Higor Meritão | M | 78 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| Bruno Pacheco | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| João Vitor | M | 78 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| Yannick Bolasie | F | 56 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Camilo | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Rafael Santos | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Italo | M | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| David Antunes | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walter Clar | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anderson | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Paulo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vinicius Balieiro | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rubens Tadeu | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Caetano | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Carvalheira | F | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maurício Garcez | F | 21 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Jean Carlos | M | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neto Pessoa | F | 34 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Marcinho | F | 21 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Atletico Paranaense to win against Chapecoense-sc.
- What score did Fipster predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Atletico Paranaense 4–1 Chapecoense-sc.
- What were the win probabilities for Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Fipster's model gave Atletico Paranaense a 85% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.