Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo
Match recap
Atletico Paranaense beat Botafogo 4–1 in their Serie A fixture. Viveros, Viveros, Aguirre, and Esquivel scored for Atletico Paranaense; Edenílson replied for Botafogo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.34 for Atletico Paranaense versus 0.81 for Botafogo. Atletico Paranaense sit 4th in the Serie A table while Botafogo are 11th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-1 Atletico Paranaense win
Actual
4–1
Outcome probability
Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo face off in the fifth round of the regular season, with the home side looking to extend their strong run of form against a struggling Botafogo.
Match factors
Atletico Paranaense's attacking trio in strong form
Kevin Viveros leads with 19 goals and strong recent form, supported by creative midfielders providing assists.
Botafogo's reliance on Danilo Santos for goals
Danilo Santos is Botafogo's top scorer with 9 goals and good recent scoring form, key to their attack.
Atletico Paranaense's home scoring streak
Atletico Paranaense has scored in their last 5 home games, indicating strong offensive momentum at home.
Full squad availability for both teams
No confirmed injuries or suspensions for either team, allowing full-strength lineups and tactical plans.
The context
Atletico Paranaense currently sit third in the league with 53 points, boasting a healthy goal difference of +14. Botafogo, on the other hand, find themselves 13th with 36 points and a negative goal difference of -5. Historically, Atletico Paranaense have the upper hand, winning half of their last 20 encounters with Botafogo.
Key insights
- K
Kevin Viveros Rodallega
Atletico Paranaense
League top scorer with 19 goals, well above average for attackers, and in strong recent form.
Serie A 26/2719 goals in 27 apps, 0.7 goals/game
Danilo Santos
Botafogo
Top scorer for Botafogo with 9 goals and good recent scoring form, key to their attack.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 22 apps, 0.41 goals/game
Gastón Benavídez
Atletico Paranaense
Top assister with 5 assists this season, strong recent form, key wide player in attack.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 22 apps, 0.23 assists/game
Lucas Esquivel
Atletico Paranaense
Top assister among defenders with 5 assists, strong passing and crossing from defense.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 20 apps, 0.25 assists/game
Analysis
Atletico Paranaense's attacking trio is in fine fettle, led by Kevin Viveros Rodallega, the league's top scorer with 19 goals this season. Supported by creative players like Gastón Benavídez and Lucas Esquivel, they have the firepower to dismantle Botafogo's defence. Botafogo rely heavily on Danilo Santos for goals, but their overall form and defensive frailties suggest they will struggle to keep up. The predicted halftime score of 2-0 aligns well with the fulltime forecast of 4-1, indicating a dominant home performance throughout.
Key facts
- 1.Atletico Paranaense rank 3rd with 53 points from 30 games.
- 2.Botafogo rank 13th with 36 points from 30 games.
- 3.Atletico Paranaense have a goal difference of +14; Botafogo have -5.
- 4.Atletico Paranaense have won 10 of their last 20 matches against Botafogo.
- 5.Kevin Viveros Rodallega is the league top scorer with 19 goals.
- 6.Predicted halftime score is 2-0 in favour of Atletico Paranaense.
- 7.Predicted fulltime score is 4-1 to Atletico Paranaense.
- 8.Expected total cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
Expect Atletico Paranaense to assert their dominance early, leading 2-0 at halftime and cruising to a 4-1 victory by fulltime. The match should see a moderate level of discipline with around four cards shown, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Atletico Paranaense
Away — Botafogo
The verdict
In summary, Atletico Paranaense's superior league position, goal difference, and attacking form make them clear favourites to secure a comfortable win over Botafogo. Their home scoring streak and key players' contributions should ensure they leave no doubt on the night.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Viveros
Assist: Dudu
Luiz Gustavo
Yellow Card
Medina
Yellow Card
Edenílson
Viveros
Assist: Benavídez
Barboza
Yellow Card
Aguirre
Assist: Esquivel
Dias
Yellow Card
Rodríguez
Matheus Martins
Dias
Julimar
Cabral
Edenílson
Esquivel
Dudu
Júnior Santos
Yellow Card
Viveros
Mendoza
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
Match Statistics
Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 7S. MendozaM
- 9K. ViverosF
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 16JádsonM
- 20JulimarF
- 23SantosG
- 29G. BenavídezM
- 33J. AguirreD
- 37L. EsquivelD
- 53DuduF
Substitutes
- 1MycaelG
- 3LéoD
- 5FelipinhoD
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 13C. TeránD
- 21LeozinhoF
- 26ClaudinhoD
- 27J. PortillaM
- 70Renan PeixotoF
Botafogo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1RaulG
- 2VitinhoD
- 6C. MedinaM
- 10Álvaro MontoroM
- 11Matheus MartinsM
- 13Alex TellesD
- 15Bartolomeu Jacinto QuissangaD
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 20A. BarbozaD
- 23S. RodríguezM
- 88EdenílsonM
Substitutes
- 3YthalloD
- 4M. PonteD
- 14J. BarreraM
- 16Nathan FernandesF
- 17Júnior SantosF
- 24Léo LinckG
- 27Caio RoqueD
- 34G. JustinoM
- 42Kadu SantosD
- 45Caio ValleF
- 55Wallace IIM
- 77L. VillalbaF
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Esquivel | D | 90 | 9.6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | — |
| Kevin Viveros | F | 89 | 9.3 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/3 |
| Luiz Gustavo | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Felipe Aguirre | D | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Gastón Benavídez | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Santos(C) | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Steven Mendoza | M | 89 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Dudu | F | 88 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Arthur Dias | D | 61 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jádson | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Julimar | F | 61 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Léo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Claudinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto Junior | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Cruz | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leozinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leonardo Derik | D | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Mycael | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Terán | D | 29 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Zapelli | M | 29 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Camilo Portilla | M | 8 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Botafogo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edenilson | M | 75 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Alexander Barboza | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Cristian Medina | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Montoro | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3/3 |
| Matheus Martins | M | 58 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/4 |
| Alex Telles(C) | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Raul | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Cabral | F | 74 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Rodríguez | M | 58 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Bastos | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitinho | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Léo Linck | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Ponte | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ythallo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wallace Davi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Valle | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Justino | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kadu Santos | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Roque | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Barrera | M | 15 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Nathan Fernandes | F | 16 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Villalba | F | 32 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Júnior Santos | F | 32 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Atletico Paranaense to win against Botafogo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Atletico Paranaense 4–1 Botafogo.
- What were the win probabilities for Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
- Fipster's model gave Atletico Paranaense a 95% chance of winning, Botafogo a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.