Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG
Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG share spoils
A late flurry of goals sees both sides snatch a point in a thrilling Serie A draw.
Atletico Paranaense looked set for victory after K. Vargas opened the scoring early and K. Viveros struck deep into stoppage time, only for Atletico-MG to snatch a draw with Bernard's first-half equaliser and Lyanco's last-gasp goal. The 2-2 draw defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a narrow home win, proving this fixture was far too close to call.
Outcome probability
As the regular season nears its climax, Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG face off in what promises to be a competitive encounter. Both sides have shown glimpses of quality, but the home side's recent form and goal-scoring prowess give them the upper hand.
Match factors
Kevin Viveros' scoring prowess at home
Viveros has a high goal rate at home (0.69 goals/game) and is in strong recent form, giving Atletico Paranaense a key attacking edge.
Home team’s strong scoring streak
Atletico Paranaense has scored in their last 5 home games, showing consistent offensive output supporting the predicted 2-1 win.
João Cruz’s creative form
João Cruz has 5 assists this season with recent assists in last 5 games, boosting home team’s chance to create scoring opportunities.
Defensive playmakers Benavídez and Esquivel
Both defenders exceed league averages in assists and passing, providing Atletico Paranaense with attacking width and defensive solidity.
Tomás Cuello’s impact for Atletico-MG
Cuello leads Atletico-MG scorers with 5 goals and good recent form, posing a threat despite away disadvantage.
The context
Atletico Paranaense currently sit 4th in the league with 46 points, while Atletico-MG are 7th with 40 points. The home team boasts a superior goal difference of +10 compared to Atletico-MG's +4, reflecting their stronger offensive and defensive balance this season.
Key insights
- K
Kevin Viveros Rodallega
Atletico Paranaense
Viveros has a high goal rate at home (0.69 goals/game) and is in strong recent form, giving Atletico Paranaense a key attacking edge.
Serie A 26/2718 goals in 26 apps, 0.69 goals/game
João Cruz
Atletico Paranaense
João Cruz has 5 assists this season with recent assists in last 5 games, boosting home team’s chance to create scoring opportunities.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 27 apps, 0.19 assists/game
Gastón Benavídez
Atletico Paranaense
Benavídez provides attacking width and defensive solidity with 5 assists and strong tackling stats.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 22 apps, 0.23 assists/game
Lucas Esquivel
Atletico Paranaense
Esquivel contributes both defensively and offensively with 5 assists and high passing accuracy.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 19 apps, 0.26 assists/game
Tomás Cuello
Atletico-MG
Cuello leads Atletico-MG scorers with 5 goals and good recent form, posing a threat despite away disadvantage.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 23 apps, 0.22 goals/game
Analysis
Despite Atletico-MG's historical edge in head-to-head wins, Atletico Paranaense have been the more consistent side this season, especially at home where they've scored in their last five matches. Kevin Viveros Rodallega leads the charge with 18 goals, thriving particularly well on home turf. Creative forces like João Cruz and the attacking contributions from defenders Gastón Benavídez and Lucas Esquivel add further depth. Atletico-MG's main threat comes from Tomás Cuello, their top scorer with 5 goals, but the visitors may struggle to contain the home side's attacking variety.
Key facts
- 1.Atletico Paranaense rank 4th with 46 points from 27 games (W13 D7 L7).
- 2.Atletico-MG rank 7th with 40 points from 27 games (W11 D7 L9).
- 3.Atletico Paranaense have a +10 goal difference, better than Atletico-MG's +4.
- 4.In 20 head-to-head matches, Atletico Paranaense have won 6, Atletico-MG 13, with 1 draw.
- 5.Atletico Paranaense have scored in their last 5 home games.
- 6.Kevin Viveros Rodallega is the league's top scorer with 18 goals this season.
- 7.João Cruz leads Atletico Paranaense with 5 assists this season.
- 8.Tomás Cuello is Atletico-MG's top scorer with 5 goals.
Prediction
We anticipate Atletico Paranaense to take an early lead, going into halftime 1-0. The home side should maintain their momentum to secure a 2-1 victory by full time. Expect a competitive match with around four cards shown, reflecting the intensity of this league phase fixture.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Atletico Paranaense
Away — Atletico-MG
The verdict
In summary, Atletico Paranaense's superior form, goal difference, and key player performances make them favourites to claim all three points. Atletico-MG will provide a stern test, but the home advantage and attacking firepower should see the hosts through.
Prediction generated 21 Sep 2026, 00:37 UTC · Fipster Model v1.161
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Vargas
Assist: Gilberto
Bernard
Fred
Gilberto
João Cruz
Goal cancelled
Cuello
Yellow Card
Maycon
Mamady Cisse
Card upgrade confirmed
Pérez
Red Card
Castaño
Yellow Card
Reinier
Bernard
Luiz Gustavo
Terán
Viveros
Lyanco
Assist: Borbas
Esquivel
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | +32 | 61 |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | +12 | 51 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | +11 | 50 |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | +4 | 48 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | +7 | 46 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | +5 | 44 |
| 8 |  Santos | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | +2 | 42 |
Match Statistics
Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1MycaelG
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 7S. MendozaM
- 8João CruzM
- 9K. ViverosF
- 12GilbertoM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 16JádsonM
- 18K. VargasM
- 22C. TeránD
- 37L. EsquivelD
Substitutes
- 2GilbertoD
- 3LéoD
- 5FelipinhoD
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 19Jorge Luis Rivaldo PintoF
- 21LeozinhoF
- 23SantosG
- 26ClaudinhoD
- 47ChiquetiM
- 53DuduM
- 63Diogo RiquelmeM
- 70RenanF
Atletico-MG
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 2NatanaelD
- 6Renan LodiD
- 7FredM
- 8MayconM
- 11BernardM
- 13LyancoD
- 19ReinierF
- 28T. CuelloM
- 39Mamady CisseM
- 40VitãoD
Substitutes
- 3Léo DuarteD
- 5AlexsanderM
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 15K. CastañoM
- 17Igor GomesM
- 18T. BorbasF
- 25T. PérezM
- 30Victor HugoM
- 31RobertG
- 36K. PasciniD
- 92DuduF
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vargas | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2/3 |
| K. Viveros | F | 90 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/2 |
| L. Esquivel | D | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 6 | 0/1 |
| Mycael | G | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leozinho | F | 29 | 7.1 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Jádson | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | — |
| Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto | F | 9 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Arthur Dias | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Luiz Gustavo | M | 81 | 6.7 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | — |
| S. Mendoza | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Gilberto | M | 61 | 6.5 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| C. Terán | D | 81 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| João Cruz | M | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Claudinho | D | 29 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| B. Zapelli | M | 9 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Chiqueti | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dudu | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renan | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipinho | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santos | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogo Riquelme | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Atletico-MG
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Delfim | G | 90 | 8.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Bernard | M | 76 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Lyanco | D | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Renan Lodi | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Natanael | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| T. Borbas | F | 14 | 6.8 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Vitão | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| T. Cuello | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1/4 |
| Victor Hugo | M | 52 | 6.5 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Reinier | F | 76 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Fred | M | 38 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Maycon | M | 67 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Mamady Cisse | M | 68 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Gomes | M | 14 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Castaño | M | 22 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Pérez | M | 6 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexsander | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Pascini | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dudu | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo Duarte | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Hugo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Atletico Paranaense to win against Atletico-MG.
- What score did Fipster predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Atletico-MG.
- What were the win probabilities for Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
- Fipster's model gave Atletico Paranaense a 95% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.