Atletico-MG vs Fluminense
Atletico-MG storms past Fluminense
A dominant second-half display secures a 3-1 victory for Atletico-MG.
Atletico-MG turned the game decisively in their favour after the break, with Reinier and T. Cuello striking within two minutes of each other shortly after the hour mark. Vitão's goal further extended the lead before R. Castillo netted a consolation for Fluminense in the 90th minute. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the actual scoreline was a tad less emphatic than the forecasted 4-1.
Outcome probability
Atletico-MG and Fluminense face off in a regular season encounter where the home side looks poised to assert their attacking prowess. Both teams have shown scoring ability recently, but Atletico-MG's home form and offensive momentum give them the edge.
Match factors
Atletico-MG's home scoring streak
Atletico-MG has scored in all last 5 home games, showing strong attacking momentum
Tomás Cuello's scoring form
Cuello scored 2 goals in last 5 games, above average for attackers this season
Fluminense's consistent scoring
Fluminense has scored in last 5 away games, maintaining offensive pressure despite missing key striker
Fluminense missing top scorer John Kennedy
Kennedy is out with knee injury, reducing Fluminense's goal threat significantly
The context
Atletico-MG currently sit 8th in the league with 36 points from 25 games, while Fluminense are 5th with 42 points. Historically, Atletico-MG have a slight advantage in their head-to-head meetings, having won 8 of 20 encounters compared to Fluminense's 6 wins and 6 draws. This match is part of the regular season, round 27, and both teams will be eager to secure valuable points.
Key insights
Tomás Cuello
Atletico-MG
Cuello has been in fine form at home, scoring 2 goals in the last 5 games, making him a key offensive threat.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 20 apps, 2 goals last 5 games
Renan Lodi
Atletico-MG
Lodi is the top assister for Atletico-MG with 3 assists this season, providing strong crossing and set-piece delivery.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 21 apps, 1 assist last 5 games
- J
John Kennedy
Fluminense
Kennedy is out with a knee injury, significantly reducing Fluminense's goal threat this match.
Serie A 26/279 goals this season
Analysis
Atletico-MG have scored in all of their last five home games, showcasing a consistent attacking threat. Tomás Cuello stands out with 2 goals in his last 5 games, making him a key player to watch. Fluminense, despite missing their top scorer John Kennedy due to a knee injury, have maintained offensive pressure by scoring in their last five away matches. However, the absence of Kennedy significantly reduces their goal threat. The predicted halftime score of 2-0 aligns with Atletico-MG's strong start, and the fulltime score of 4-1 reflects their ability to extend the lead comfortably.
Key facts
- 1.Atletico-MG are 8th in the league with 36 points from 25 games (W10 D6 L9).
- 2.Fluminense are 5th in the league with 42 points from 25 games (W11 D9 L5).
- 3.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Atletico-MG have won 8, Fluminense 6, with 6 draws.
- 4.Atletico-MG have scored in all of their last 5 home games.
- 5.Tomás Cuello has scored 2 goals in his last 5 games for Atletico-MG.
- 6.Fluminense have scored in their last 5 away games despite missing their top scorer.
- 7.John Kennedy, Fluminense's top scorer with 9 goals, is out with a knee injury.
Prediction
The forecast is a confident home win for Atletico-MG with a 4-1 scoreline. The home side is expected to take control early, leading 2-0 at halftime, and continue their dominance into the second half. Fluminense may find the net once, but Atletico-MG's attacking momentum and home advantage should see them through with a comfortable margin.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Atletico-MG
Away — Fluminense
No standout top scorers flagged for Fluminense
The verdict
In summary, Atletico-MG's consistent home scoring and Fluminense's injury setbacks set the stage for a decisive home victory. Fans can anticipate an entertaining match with plenty of goals, led by Atletico-MG's key performers like Tomás Cuello and Renan Lodi.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Franco
Yellow Card
Otávio
Yellow Card
Acosta
Reinier
Assist: Cuello
Canobbio
Cuello
Franco
Castaño
Castillo
Yellow Card
Cuello
Bernard
Savarino
Otávio
Reinier
Vitão
Assist: Cassierra
Julio Fidelis
Castillo
Assist: Serna
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | +26 | 56 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | +8 | 43 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | +4 | 39 |
| 8 |  Coritiba | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 38 |
Match Statistics
Atletico-MG
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 2NatanaelD
- 7FredM
- 11BernardM
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 15K. CastañoM
- 19ReinierF
- 21A. FrancoM
- 28T. CuelloM
- 36K. PasciniD
- 40VitãoD
Substitutes
- 5AlexsanderM
- 6Renan LodiD
- 8MayconM
- 9M. CassierraF
- 10Gustavo ScarpaM
- 13LyancoD
- 17Igor GomesM
- 23A. PreciadoD
- 27A. MindaF
- 31RobertG
- 39Mamady CisseM
- 92DuduF
Fluminense
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1FábioG
- 11J. SavarinoM
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 16NonatoM
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 19R. CastilloF
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 22J. FreytesD
- 32L. AcostaF
- 46Julio FidelisD
- 94OtávioM
Substitutes
- 6RenêD
- 8MartinelliM
- 10PH GansoM
- 28RiquelmeF
- 29J. MillánD
- 34Wesley NataF
- 35HérculesM
- 44JemmesD
- 90K. SernaF
- 98Vitor EudesG
Atletico-MG
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Cuello | M | 70 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0/2 |
| Reinier | F | 78 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Vitão | D | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Natanael | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| K. Castaño | M | 65 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Fred | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| M. Cassierra | F | 12 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Vitor Hugo | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Scarpa | M | 20 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Gabriel Delfim | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Gomes | M | 20 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| K. Pascini | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Mamady Cisse | M | 25 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Franco | M | 65 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Maycon | M | 25 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bernard | M | 70 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Lyanco | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Minda | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Preciado | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexsander | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dudu | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renan Lodi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Fluminense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Castillo | F | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4/6 |
| J. Freytes | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Fábio | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riquelme | F | 18 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Igor Rabello | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| K. Serna | F | 29 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Nonato | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Savarino | M | 72 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Otávio | M | 72 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Hércules | M | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julio Fidelis | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| PH Ganso | M | 18 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| L. Acosta | F | 61 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| A. Canobbio | M | 61 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Millán | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martinelli | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wesley Nata | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Eudes | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jemmes | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renê | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |