Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc stuns Atletico-MG with draw
A resilient Chapecoense-sc side held Atletico-MG to a 1-1 stalemate despite the hosts' high expectations.
Chapecoense-sc took the lead just before half-time, only for M. Cassierra to level for Atletico-MG after the break. The 1-1 draw defied Fipster's confident prediction of a dominant home win, proving this Serie A fixture was far tighter than anticipated.
Outcome probability
Atletico-MG face Chapecoense-sc in a Brazilian Serie A clash where the home side's superior form and goal-scoring prowess set the stage for a commanding performance.
Match factors
Atletico-MG's potent home attack
Atletico-MG scores 1.83 goals per home game, above league average, boosting their scoring chances
Tomás Cuello's recent scoring surge
Cuello has scored 3 goals in last 5 matches, showing strong form and finishing ability
Chapecoense missing key midfielder Rafael Carvalheira
Carvalheira is confirmed out with knee injury, weakening Chapecoense's midfield creativity
Hulk's assist threat from set-pieces
Hulk leads Atletico-MG with 3 assists, often from set-pieces, increasing goal creation chances
Chapecoense's reliance on Marcinho for goals
Marcinho is Chapecoense's top scorer with 5 goals, key to their attacking threat
The context
Atletico-MG currently sit 8th in the league with 36 points from 25 games, showing a positive goal difference of +2. In contrast, Chapecoense-sc struggle near the bottom at 20th place with just 17 points and a -23 goal difference. Historically, Atletico-MG have won 6 of their 16 encounters against Chapecoense-sc, underscoring their edge in this fixture.
Key insights
Tomás Cuello
Atletico-MG
Cuello’s recent scoring surge with 3 goals in last 5 matches makes him a key threat at home.
Serie A 26/273 goals in last 5 matches, 3 goals in 3 home games
Hulk
Atletico-MG
Hulk’s set-piece prowess and 3 assists boost Atletico-MG’s goal creation chances.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 12 apps
Marcinho
Chapecoense-sc
Marcinho is Chapecoense-sc’s main attacking outlet with 5 goals this season.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 24 apps
Reinier
Atletico-MG
Reinier’s good home form with 2 goals in last 5 games adds to Atletico-MG’s attacking options.
Serie A 26/272 goals in last 5 home games
Analysis
Atletico-MG's attacking threat is bolstered by Tomás Cuello, who has netted 3 goals in his last 5 matches and boasts a perfect home scoring record this season with 3 goals in 3 home games. Reinier also adds firepower with 2 goals in recent home outings. Hulk's set-piece expertise and 3 assists this season provide additional creative spark. Chapecoense-sc rely heavily on Marcinho, their top scorer with 5 goals, but the absence of key midfielder Rafael Carvalheira due to a knee injury weakens their midfield creativity. Atletico-MG's home scoring average of 1.83 goals per game further highlights their offensive advantage.
Key facts
- 1.Atletico-MG are 8th with 36 points; Chapecoense-sc are 20th with 17 points.
- 2.Atletico-MG have a +2 goal difference; Chapecoense-sc have -23.
- 3.Atletico-MG have won 6 of 16 head-to-head matches against Chapecoense-sc.
- 4.Tomás Cuello has scored 3 goals in his last 5 matches, all 3 at home.
- 5.Hulk leads Atletico-MG with 3 assists, often from set-pieces.
- 6.Chapecoense-sc's key midfielder Rafael Carvalheira is out with a knee injury.
- 7.Predicted halftime score is 2-0 in favour of Atletico-MG.
- 8.Predicted fulltime score is 4-1 to Atletico-MG.
Prediction
Expect Atletico-MG to take control early, leading 2-0 at halftime before extending their lead to a 4-1 victory by full time. The match is likely to feature moderate discipline with around 4 cards shown, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Atletico-MG
Away — Chapecoense-sc
The verdict
With superior form, key players in fine fettle, and a tactical edge, Atletico-MG look set to deliver a comprehensive win over Chapecoense-sc. Fans can anticipate an entertaining display with plenty of goals and attacking intent from the home side.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Goal
Vitor Hugo
Yellow Card
Alexsander
Minda
Pascini
Cassierra
Unknown
Unknown
Maycon
Vitão
Yellow Card
Unknown
Unknown
Unknown
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | +32 | 60 |
| 7 |  Santos | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 41 |
| 8 |  Atletico-MG | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 9 |  Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 19 |  Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Match Statistics
Atletico-MG
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 2NatanaelD
- 5AlexsanderM
- 7FredM
- 8MayconM
- 11BernardM
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 27A. MindaF
- 28T. CuelloM
- 36K. PasciniD
- 40VitãoD
Substitutes
- 3Léo DuarteD
- 6Renan LodiD
- 9M. CassierraF
- 13LyancoD
- 15K. CastañoM
- 17Igor GomesM
- 21A. FrancoM
- 23A. PreciadoD
- 25T. PérezM
- 31RobertG
- 39Mamady CisseM
- 92DuduF
Chapecoense-sc
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3DomaD
- 7MarcinhoM
- 10Giovanni AugustoM
- 21Kauan Faria GomesD
- 23DuduD
- 27CamiloM
- 31GarcezM
- 88Yago FelipeM
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 98AndersonG
Substitutes
- 11Y. BolasieF
- 12FernandoD
- 15Rafael ThyereD
- 16Bruno MatiasM
- 19David AntunesM
- 30Matheus AurélioG
- 70RubensM
- 77D. BorreroF
- 80Miguel CarvalhoM
Atletico-MG
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Cassierra | F | 32 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Natanael | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 5 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Fred | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/3 |
| T. Cuello | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 7 | 2 | 5 | 6/9 |
| Bernard | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3/3 |
| Renan Lodi | D | 32 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| K. Castaño | M | 9 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Maycon | M | 81 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| K. Pascini | D | 58 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Dudu | F | 32 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Vitor Hugo | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitão | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Minda | F | 58 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Alexsander | M | 58 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Gabriel Delfim | G | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Pérez | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Preciado | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Franco | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mamady Cisse | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lyanco | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo Duarte | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Gomes | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Atletico-MG to win against Chapecoense-sc.
- What score did Fipster predict for Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Atletico-MG 4–1 Chapecoense-sc.
- What were the win probabilities for Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Fipster's model gave Atletico-MG a 95% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.