Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna
Atletico Madrid edge Deportivo in tight contest
J. Álvarez's early second-half strike secures a narrow win for the hosts.
Atletico Madrid managed a slender 1-0 victory over Deportivo La Coruna thanks to J. Álvarez's goal just after the break. Despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a more comfortable 4-1 win, the actual scoreline was much closer, though the forecast for a home win was spot on.
Outcome probability
Atletico Madrid, also known as Los Colchoneros, face Deportivo La Coruna in a regular season clash where the home side's strong league form suggests a comfortable victory.
Match factors
Atletico's Defensive Solidity vs Deportivo's Moderate Attack
Atletico concedes fewer goals per game (0.88) than Deportivo (1.33), likely to limit Deportivo's scoring chances.
Aubameyang's Goal Threat for Deportivo
Aubameyang leads Deportivo with 5 goals in 7 games, a key scoring outlet despite predicted loss.
Atletico's Strong Home Scoring Streak
Atletico has scored in last 5 home games, averaging 2.5 goals per home match, supporting predicted 4 goals.
Koke's Absence Weakens Atletico Midfield Creativity
Koke is confirmed out, reducing Atletico's midfield passing and assist potential, impacting playmaking.
The context
Atletico Madrid currently sit 2nd in the league with 19 points from 8 games, boasting a +10 goal difference. Deportivo La Coruna are 8th with 10 points and a less impressive goal difference, highlighting the gap between the two sides.
Key insights
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Deportivo La Coruna
Leads Deportivo with 5 goals in 7 games, a key offensive threat despite the predicted loss.
La Liga 26/275 goals in 7 appearances, 80 avg mins per game
G. Simeone
Atletico Madrid
Consistent contributor with goals and assists, integral to Atletico's attacking play.
La Liga 26/271 goal, 2 assists in 8 games, 68 avg mins per game
J. David
Atletico Madrid
Regular starter with multiple recent goals, strong scoring record at home and away.
La Liga 26/273 goals in recent matches, 62 avg mins per game
Analysis
Atletico Madrid have been prolific at home, scoring in their last five matches with an average of 2.5 goals per game. Their defensive solidity limits Deportivo's chances, who average 1.33 goals conceded per game compared to Atletico's 0.88. Key players like G. Simeone and J. David contribute consistently, while Deportivo's main threat comes from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who leads their scoring charts with 5 goals in 7 appearances. However, Atletico's overall dominance in points per game and goal difference suggests they will control the match.
Key facts
- 1.Atletico Madrid are 2nd in the league with 19 points from 8 games (W6 D1 L1).
- 2.Deportivo La Coruna are 8th with 10 points from 8 games (W2 D4 L2).
- 3.Atletico Madrid have a +10 goal difference, significantly better than Deportivo's.
- 4.Atletico Madrid average 2.38 points per game compared to Deportivo's 1.25.
- 5.Atletico Madrid have scored in their last 5 home matches, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
- 6.Deportivo La Coruna concede 1.33 goals per game, while Atletico concede only 0.88.
- 7.Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang leads Deportivo with 5 goals in 7 games.
- 8.The predicted halftime score is 2-0, with a fulltime score of 4-1.
Prediction
We expect Atletico Madrid to lead 2-0 at halftime and extend their advantage to a 4-1 victory by full time. The match is also predicted to see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Atletico Madrid
Away — Deportivo La Coruna
The verdict
Atletico Madrid's superior form, goal difference, and home scoring streak make them clear favourites to claim all three points against Deportivo La Coruna. Expect a confident performance from Los Colchoneros, with key contributions from their attacking players.
Prediction generated 17 Oct 2026, 13:55 UTC · Fipster Model v1.164
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pubill
Yellow Card
Lookman
Barrios
Álvarez
Assist: Álex Grimaldo
Mella
Villares
Lee Kang-In
Peke
Yellow Card
Quagliata
Yellow Card
Hjulmand
Nsongo
Quagliata
Amatucci
Sørloth
Yellow Card
Álex Baena
Yellow Card
Simeone
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 7 |  Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
Match Statistics
Atletico Madrid
4-3-3Starting XI
- 7Lee Kang-InF
- 8Pablo BarriosM
- 10Álex BaenaM
- 11A. LookmanF
- 13J. OblakG
- 14Marcos LlorenteD
- 17D. HanckoD
- 18Marc PubillD
- 19J. ÁlvarezF
- 22Álex GrimaldoD
- 23M. HjulmandM
Substitutes
- 1J. MussoG
- 3O. VargasM
- 4Rodrigo MendozaM
- 9A. SørlothF
- 15J. DavidF
- 16Arnau OrtizF
- 20G. SimeoneF
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 25Salvador EsquivelG
- 27J. DominguezD
- 30Dani MartÃnezD
- 46J. CastilloM
Deportivo La Coruna
5-3-2Starting XI
- 2Adrià AltiD
- 8Diego VillaresM
- 10PekeF
- 11David MellaD
- 12G. QuagliataD
- 13Leo RománG
- 15Miguel LoureiroD
- 16L. AmatucciM
- 20J. GiménezD
- 21Mario SorianoM
- 32B. NsongoF
Substitutes
- 3Arnau ComasD
- 4L. NoubiD
- 5Dani BarciaD
- 14Riki RodríguezM
- 17AngeliñoD
- 18Jonathan Asp JensenM
- 19Luismi CruzF
- 23Ximo NavarroD
- 24Adama TraoréF
- 25Álvaro FernándezG
- 33Kevin SánchezF
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Álvarez | F | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4/6 |
| Álex Grimaldo | D | 90 | 8.0 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Oblak | G | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Hancko | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Robin Le Normand | D | 44 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Llorente | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marc Pubill | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| M. Hjulmand | M | 80 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Álex Baena | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1/4 |
| Pablo Barrios | M | 46 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| G. Simeone | F | 44 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Rodrigo Mendoza | M | 10 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Lookman | F | 46 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Sørloth | F | 23 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Lee Kang-In | F | 67 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 4/4 |
| J. Musso | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. David | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Dominguez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Castillo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Salvador Esquivel | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dani MartÃnez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arnau Ortiz | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Vargas | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Deportivo La Coruna
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Giménez | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Mario Soriano | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Adrià Alti | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| Miguel Loureiro | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| L. Amatucci | M | 84 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Kevin Sánchez | F | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Asp Jensen | M | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Adama Traoré | F | 32 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| G. Quagliata | D | 80 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Peke | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3/5 |
| Riki Rodríguez | M | 6 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luismi Cruz | F | 32 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Diego Villares | M | 58 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| David Mella | D | 58 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Nsongo | F | 80 | 6.1 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | 4/4 |
| Leo Román | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arnau Comas | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Fernández | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Angeliño | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dani Barcia | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Noubi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ximo Navarro | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Atletico Madrid to win against Deportivo La Coruna.
- What score did Fipster predict for Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Atletico Madrid 4–1 Deportivo La Coruna.
- What were the win probabilities for Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna?
- Fipster's model gave Atletico Madrid a 95% chance of winning, Deportivo La Coruna a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.