Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
Athletic Club edge Real Sociedad in tight clash
Berenguer's penalty seals a narrow home victory in a spirited Basque derby.
Athletic Club secured a 2-1 win over Real Sociedad in La Liga thanks to early strikes from I. Williams and a penalty from Álex Berenguer just before half-time. L. Sučić pulled one back for Sociedad, but it wasn't enough to prevent the home side from taking all three points. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the exact scoreline proved a bit optimistic.
Outcome probability
Athletic Club, known as Los Leones, are poised to extend their solid home performances with a confident win over Real Sociedad, La Real. This clash in the regular season's 11th round promises goals and tactical intrigue.
Match factors
Key Defensive Absences for Both Teams
Athletic Club misses Laporte and others; Real Sociedad without Aramburu and Herrera weakens defense
Athletic Club's Strong Home Scoring Form
Athletic Club scored in 4 of last 5 home games, including 4 goals vs Getafe
Real Sociedad's Passing and Creativity
Carlos Soler leads with 44.3 passes per game and consistent assists, boosting attacking threat
Athletic Club's Defensive Solidity at Home
High clean sheet percentage (60%) at home supports predicted 3-1 win
Potential Vulnerability in Real Sociedad Defense
Real Sociedad concedes in all last 5 away games, increasing Athletic's scoring chances
The context
Athletic Club currently sit 10th in the league with 8 points from 6 games, while Real Sociedad hold 6th place with 13 points from 8 matches. Both teams have had their share of ups and downs, but Athletic's home form and Real Sociedad's defensive vulnerabilities set the stage for an entertaining encounter.
Key insights
- Á
Álex Berenguer
Athletic Club
Top recent scorer with multiple goals and assists in last home match, driving Athletic's attack.
La Liga 26/27High rating (9.75) and involvement in 4 goals vs Getafe in competition 140 this season.
- Y
Yuri
Athletic Club
Strong defensive presence with high tackle and interception rates, also contributing goals.
La Liga 26/27High duel win rate (69.7%) and recent goals in competition 140 this season.
- C
Carlos Soler
Real Sociedad
Creative engine for La Real, leading with high pass volume and regular assists.
La Liga 26/2744.3 average passes per game and consistent assists in competition 140 this season.
Analysis
Athletic Club's home scoring form is impressive, having found the net in 4 of their last 5 home games, including a notable 4-goal haul against Getafe. Key players like Álex Berenguer have been instrumental, boasting a high rating of 9.75 and involvement in 4 goals in their last home match. Defensively, Los Leones maintain solidity with a 60% clean sheet rate at home, aided by defenders Yuri and Aitor Paredes, who contribute both defensively and offensively. Real Sociedad, meanwhile, face challenges with key defensive absences such as J. Aramburu and Y. Herrera, weakening their backline. Although Carlos Soler leads their creative efforts with an average of 44.3 passes per game and regular assists, their defence has conceded in all of their last 5 away games, making them vulnerable to Athletic's attack.
Key facts
- 1.Athletic Club are 10th with 8 points from 6 games (W2 D2 L2).
- 2.Real Sociedad are 6th with 13 points from 8 games (W4 D1 L3).
- 3.Athletic Club scored in 4 of their last 5 home games.
- 4.Real Sociedad have conceded in all of their last 5 away games.
- 5.Álex Berenguer rated 9.75 in last home match with involvement in 4 goals.
- 6.Yuri has a duel win rate of 69.7% and scored recently.
- 7.Carlos Soler averages 44.3 passes per game for Real Sociedad.
- 8.Most probable total cards in the match is 4, indicating moderate discipline.
Prediction
The prediction favours Athletic Club to take a 1-0 lead by halftime and extend this to a 3-1 victory by fulltime. The expected total of 4 cards suggests a moderately physical game, but Athletic's home advantage and attacking momentum should see them comfortably through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Athletic Club
Away — Real Sociedad
The verdict
In summary, Athletic Club's blend of home scoring prowess and defensive resilience, combined with Real Sociedad's defensive frailties, points to a decisive 3-1 win for Los Leones. Fans can expect a lively match with goals and tactical battles, but ultimately a home victory.
Prediction generated 25 Oct 2026, 19:23 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Sannadi
Williams
Assist: Nico Williams
Sučić
Álex Berenguer
Penalty
Williams
Yellow Card
Oyarzabal
Yellow Card
Barrenetxea
Sarr
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Aramburu
Yellow Card
Sučić
Gorrotxategi
Canales
Rincón
Yellow Card
Aramburu
Yuri
Nico Williams
Robert Navarro
Gonçalo Guedes
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
Match Statistics
Athletic Club
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1Unai SimónG
- 3Dani VivianD
- 7Álex BerenguerM
- 9I. WilliamsF
- 10Nico WilliamsM
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 15Hugo RincónD
- 17YuriD
- 21Maroan SannadiF
- 24Beñat GerenabarrenaM
- 28Peio CanalesM
Substitutes
- 4Aitor ParedesD
- 5YerayD
- 6Beñat PradosM
- 8Oihan SancetM
- 12Jesús AresoD
- 13Álex PadillaG
- 18Mikel JauregizarM
- 20Alejandro RegoM
- 22Nico SerranoF
- 23Robert NavarroM
- 31J. Louis-JeanD
Real Sociedad
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1Álex RemiroG
- 2J. AramburuD
- 4Jon GorrotxategiM
- 6Jon MartínD
- 7BarrenetxeaM
- 10Mikel OyarzabalF
- 11Gonçalo GuedesM
- 17Sergio GómezD
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 19M. SarrD
- 24L. SučićF
Substitutes
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 5ZubeldiaD
- 8Beñat TurrientesM
- 9O. ÓskarssonF
- 12J. OchiengF
- 13Unai MarreroG
- 14T. KuboF
- 15Pablo MarínM
- 16Jon PachecoD
- 21Y. HerreraM
- 22Héctor FortD
- 32Aitor FragaG
Athletic Club
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Williams | F | 90 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/4 |
| Robert Navarro | M | 83 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 0/4 |
| Nico Williams | M | 89 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 3 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Dani Vivian | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Álex Berenguer | M | 90 | 6.8 | 1 | — | 5 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Oihan Sancet | M | 1 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Yuri | D | 89 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo Rincón | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Unai Simón | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Peio Canales | M | 77 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Beñat Gerenabarrena | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yeray | D | 1 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aymeric Laporte | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maroan Sannadi | F | 6 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Louis-Jean | D | 1 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Beñat Prados | M | 13 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aitor Paredes | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nico Serrano | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jesús Areso | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álex Padilla | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mikel Jauregizar | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Rego | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Sučić | F | 75 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| Carlos Soler | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 4 | — |
| T. Kubo | F | 15 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Jon Martín | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Sarr | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Óskarsson | F | 29 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Sergio Gómez | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Jon Gorrotxategi | M | 75 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Ochieng | F | 1 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álex Remiro | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Héctor Fort | D | 2 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Beñat Turrientes | M | 15 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Aramburu | D | 88 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Barrenetxea | M | 61 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Gonçalo Guedes | M | 89 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Aihen Muñoz | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jon Pacheco | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Unai Marrero | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Herrera | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Marín | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aitor Fraga | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zubeldia | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Athletic Club to win against Real Sociedad.
- What score did Fipster predict for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Athletic Club 3–1 Real Sociedad.
- What were the win probabilities for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
- Fipster's model gave Athletic Club a 95% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.