Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo
Match recap
Athletic Club and Celta Vigo drew 1–1 in their La Liga fixture. Williams scored for Athletic Club; Swedberg replied for Celta Vigo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.53 for Athletic Club versus 0.15 for Celta Vigo. Athletic Club sit 12th in the La Liga table while Celta Vigo are 6th.
Analysis
Athletic Club host Celta Vigo in what promises to be a tightly contested La Liga fixture. Both teams have shown resilience this season, and with key players missing, a balanced game is on the cards.
Athletic Club sit 9th with 44 points, while Celta Vigo are 6th with 50 points. Celta's superior goal difference (+17 vs -13) highlights their stronger overall performance. The match is part of the 37th round of the regular season, with both teams eager to secure valuable points.
Injuries to key attackers like Gorka Guruzeta and Nico Williams for Athletic Club reduce their offensive threat, while Celta Vigo's better recent scoring form suggests a slight edge. However, Athletic's home advantage and creative influence from players like Yuri balance the scales. The predicted 1-1 scoreline reflects this equilibrium, supported by statistical probabilities favouring a draw.
Prediction
The highest probability outcome is a 1-1 draw, with a halftime score of 0-0. Expect a disciplined match with around three cards issued. Both teams are likely to share the spoils, reflecting their closely matched strengths and current form.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Key attackers missing for Athletic Club
Gorka Guruzeta and Nico Williams are injured, reducing scoring options and offensive threat.
Yuri's creative influence is significant
Yuri leads assists and passing accuracy among defenders, crucial for set-pieces and build-up.
Athletic Club's midfield defensive gap
Absence of Ruiz de Galarreta weakens midfield defense, may expose team to Celta's attackers.
Celta Vigo's better recent scoring form
Celta averages 1.4 goals/game vs Athletic's 1.1, indicating stronger offensive momentum.
Balanced scoring likelihood supports draw
Both teams have multiple contributors but key injuries balance scoring chances, favoring draw.
Key Takeaways
With key players sidelined and both teams evenly matched, a draw seems the fairest result. Fans can anticipate a competitive game with moments of quality from both sides, ending in a 1-1 stalemate.
- Athletic Club are 9th with 44 points from 36 games (W13 D5 L18).
- Celta Vigo are 6th with 50 points from 36 games (W13 D11 L12).
- Celta Vigo have a significantly better goal difference (+17) than Athletic Club (-13).
- Draw scorelines (1-1 and 2-2) have a combined probability of 0.31, the highest among outcomes.
- Gorka Guruzeta is Athletic Club's top scorer with 9 goals but is currently injured.
- Yuri leads Athletic Club in assists with 5 and has a high passing accuracy of 87%.
- The predicted total number of cards in the match is 3.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Athletic Club
Away — Celta Vigo
No standout top scorers flagged for Celta Vigo
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Swedberg
Assist: Moriba
Javi Rueda
Yellow Card
Yuri
Yellow Card
Radu
Yellow Card
Gómez
Javi Rueda
Williams
Assist: Yuri
Jutglà
Iglesias
Aymeric Laporte
Yellow Card
Jauregizar
Swedberg
Guruzeta
Álex Berenguer
Williams
Fer López
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | +59 | 94 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | +11 | 60 |
| 6 |  Celta Vigo | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | +5 | 54 |
| 7 |  Getafe | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | -6 | 51 |
| 11 |  Espanyol | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | -12 | 46 |
| 12 |  Athletic Club | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | -15 | 45 |
| 13 |  Sevilla | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | -14 | 43 |
Match Statistics
Athletic Club
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Unai SimónG
- 2GorosabelD
- 5YerayD
- 7Álex BerenguerM
- 9I. WilliamsM
- 11Gorka GuruzetaF
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 16Ruíz de GalarretaM
- 17YuriD
- 18Mikel JauregizarM
- 20Unai GómezM
Substitutes
- 4Aitor ParedesD
- 6Mikel VesgaM
- 12Jesús AresoD
- 15LekueD
- 19A. BoiroD
- 21Maroan SannadiF
- 22Nico SerranoF
- 23Robert NavarroM
- 25Urko IzetaF
- 27Álex PadillaG
- 30Alejandro RegoM
- 44S. SanchezM
Celta Vigo
3-4-3Starting XI
- 5Sergio CarreiraM
- 6I. MoribaM
- 7Borja IglesiasF
- 8Fer LópezM
- 9Ferran JutglàF
- 13I. RaduG
- 17Javi RuedaM
- 19W. SwedbergF
- 20Marcos AlonsoD
- 29Yoel LagoD
- 32Javi RodríguezD
Substitutes
- 1Iván VillarG
- 3Óscar MinguezaD
- 4J. AidooD
- 10Iago AspasF
- 12Manu FernándezD
- 14Álvaro NúñezD
- 15M. VecinoM
- 18Pablo DuránF
- 21M. RistićD
- 22Hugo SoteloM
- 23Hugo ÁlvarezM
- 39J. El AbdellaouiF
Athletic Club
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuri Berchiche | D | 90 | 9.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| Andoni Gorosabel | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Yeray Álvarez | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 | — |
| Iñaki Williams(C) | M | 86 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Unai Simón | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aymeric Laporte | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álex Berenguer | M | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Mikel Jauregizar | M | 71 | 6.2 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Unai Gómez | M | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | 5 | 3 | — | — |
| Gorka Guruzeta | F | 82 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Aitor Paredes | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Padilla | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adama Boiro | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Selton Sanchez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Íñigo Lekue | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mikel Vesga | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jesús Areso | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Rego Mora | M | 19 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Nico Serrano | F | 8 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Robert Navarro | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Maroan Sannadi | F | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Urko Izeta | F | 11 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Celta Vigo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ionuț Radu | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Williot Swedberg | F | 74 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Javi Rodríguez | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Marcos Alonso | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Fer López | M | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Ilaix Moriba | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Ferran Jutglà | F | 59 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Javier Rueda | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Borja Iglesias(C) | F | 59 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sergio Carreira | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yoel Lago | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Alvaro Núñez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matías Vecino | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Jones El-Abdellaoui | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joseph Aidoo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo Sotelo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Manu Fernández | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iván Villar | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mihailo Ristić | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iago Aspas | F | 31 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Pablo Durán | F | 31 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Hugo Álvarez | M | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Óscar Mingueza | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |