Athletic Club vs Alaves
Match recap
Athletic Club and Alaves drew 0–0 in their La Liga fixture. Sancet scored for Athletic Club. Athletic Club held 69% possession to 31% for Alaves. Athletic Club sit 10th in the La Liga table while Alaves are 7th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-0 Athletic Club win
Actual
0–0
Outcome probability
Athletic Club, also known as Los Leones, face off against Alaves in what promises to be a closely contested fixture. Both sides have shown glimpses of quality this season, but the home side's recent form and attacking midfield prowess could prove decisive.
Match factors
Athletic Club's midfield creativity vs Alaves' defense
Athletic's midfielders Navarro and Sancet have strong recent scoring form, likely to exploit Alaves' defensive gaps
Lucas Boyé's prolific scoring for Alaves
Boyé leads Alaves with 5 goals in 7 games, a key threat against Athletic's defense
Athletic Club's home scoring consistency
Athletic has scored in 3 of last 4 home games, supporting predicted 1-0 win
Alaves' creative midfielders' assist potential
Angel Pérez and Mariano Díaz provide strong assist threat, could unlock Athletic's defense if allowed space
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so tactical and form factors dominate prediction
The context
This match is part of the Regular Season - 7 in league 140. Athletic Club currently sit 10th with 8 points from 6 games, while Alaves are slightly ahead in 7th place with 11 points from 8 games. Historically, their encounters have been competitive, with Athletic winning 8 of 20 meetings and Alaves 6, alongside 6 draws. The average goals per head-to-head match stand at 1.8, indicating tight affairs.
Key insights
Robert Navarro
Athletic Club
Navarro's above-average goal scoring rate for a midfielder and recent form make him a key attacking threat.
La Liga 26/272 goals in 7 apps, 0.29 goals/game
Lucas Boyé
Alaves
Boyé's prolific scoring form with 5 goals in 7 games poses a significant challenge to Athletic's defence.
La Liga 26/275 goals in 7 apps, 0.71 goals/game
Iñaki Dannis Williams
Athletic Club
Williams' role as top assister and consistent starter strengthens Athletic's attacking link-up play.
La Liga 26/272 assists in 7 apps, 0.29 assists/game
Angel Pérez
Alaves
Pérez's creativity and assist potential could unlock chances if Alaves find space.
La Liga 26/273 assists in 8 apps, 0.38 assists/game
Analysis
Athletic Club's midfield creativity, led by Robert Navarro and Oihan Sancet, has been a key factor in their recent performances, with both players contributing goals and assists. Lucas Boyé remains a significant threat for Alaves, boasting 5 goals in 7 games. However, Athletic's consistent home scoring and defensive solidity suggest they have the edge. Alaves' creative midfielders, including Angel Pérez and Mariano Díaz, offer assist potential but may struggle to unlock Los Leones' defence. Both teams have full squads available, so tactical nuances and form will be crucial.
Key facts
- 1.Athletic Club are 10th in the league with 8 points from 6 games.
- 2.Alaves sit 7th with 11 points from 8 games.
- 3.In 20 head-to-head matches, Athletic Club have won 8, Alaves 6, with 6 draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 1.8 total goals.
- 5.Lucas Boyé leads Alaves with 5 goals in 7 games.
- 6.Robert Navarro has scored 2 goals in 7 appearances for Athletic Club.
- 7.Iñaki Dannis Williams is Athletic Club's top assister with 2 assists.
- 8.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a narrow 1-0 victory for Athletic Club, with the goal likely coming in the first half. The match is expected to be competitive and disciplined, with around four cards anticipated. This outcome aligns with the home side's recent scoring consistency and the statistical edge they hold in this fixture.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Athletic Club
Away — Alaves
The verdict
In summary, expect a tight match where Athletic Club's midfield ingenuity and home advantage should see them edge past Alaves by a single goal. While Alaves possess attacking threats, breaking down Los Leones' defence will be a tough task. Fans can look forward to a disciplined and closely fought contest.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 09:11 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Louis-Jean
Williams
Jauregizar
Díaz
Rebbach
Sancet
Missed Penalty
Ruíz de Galarreta
Yellow Card
Robert Navarro
Boyé
Benavídez
Ibáñez
Yuri
Areso
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
Match Statistics
Athletic Club
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Unai SimónG
- 4Aitor ParedesD
- 8Oihan SancetM
- 9I. WilliamsF
- 10Nico WilliamsM
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 16Ruíz de GalarretaM
- 17YuriD
- 18Mikel JauregizarM
- 23Robert NavarroM
- 31J. Louis-JeanD
Substitutes
- 5YerayD
- 6Beñat PradosM
- 7Álex BerenguerF
- 12Jesús AresoD
- 13Álex PadillaG
- 15Hugo RincónD
- 20Alejandro RegoM
- 21Maroan SannadiF
- 22Nico SerranoF
- 24Beñat GerenabarrenaM
- 25Álvaro DjalóF
- 28Peio CanalesM
Alaves
5-3-2Starting XI
- 1SiveraG
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 6GuevaraM
- 9M. DíazF
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 15L. BoyéF
- 16V. KoskiD
- 17JonnyD
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 21A. RebbachD
- 23C. BenavídezM
Substitutes
- 3YusiD
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 7Angel PérezD
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 10Carles AleñáM
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 13A. GiménezG
- 22Miguel RodríguezF
- 24Selu DialloM
- 27X. OlaizD
Athletic Club
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuri | D | 86 | 7.5 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Aitor Paredes | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Aymeric Laporte | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ruíz de Galarreta | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | 3/3 |
| Mikel Jauregizar | M | 62 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Louis-Jean | D | 46 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Álex Berenguer | F | 28 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Unai Simón | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jesús Areso | D | 44 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Peio Canales | M | 15 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Nico Serrano | F | 4 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Maroan Sannadi | F | 28 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Navarro | M | 75 | 6.5 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2/3 |
| I. Williams | F | 62 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Oihan Sancet | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Nico Williams | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | — | 3 | 1/5 |
| Hugo Rincón | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álex Padilla | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yeray | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Beñat Prados | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Djaló | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Rego | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Beñat Gerenabarrena | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Alaves
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sivera | G | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yusi | D | 24 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antonio Blanco | M | 15 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Koski | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Benavídez | M | 75 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Pablo Ibáñez | M | 85 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Guevara | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carles Aleñá | M | 5 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Angel Pérez | D | 15 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Jonny | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Toni Martínez | F | 25 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Rebbach | D | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| M. Díaz | F | 65 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Boyé | F | 75 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| N. Valentini | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Tenaglia | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| A. Giménez | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Rodríguez | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Selu Diallo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Denis Suárez | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| X. Olaiz | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo Novoa | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Athletic Club vs Alaves?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Athletic Club to win against Alaves.
- What score did Fipster predict for Athletic Club vs Alaves?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Athletic Club 1–0 Alaves.
- What were the win probabilities for Athletic Club vs Alaves?
- Fipster's model gave Athletic Club a 57% chance of winning, Alaves a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 57% confidence — a medium-confidence call.