Atalanta vs Venezia
Match recap
Atalanta beat Venezia 3–1 in their Serie A fixture. Kessié, Krstović, and Krstović scored for Atalanta; Hainaut replied for Venezia. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.16 for Atalanta versus 2.44 for Venezia. Atalanta sit 13th in the Serie A table while Venezia are 20th.
Outcome probability
Atalanta, known affectionately as La Dea, face off against struggling Venezia in this Serie A regular season fixture. With both teams eager to improve their standings, expect a competitive match with Atalanta holding the upper hand.
Match factors
Atalanta missing key defender O. Kossounou
Kossounou is confirmed out with a thigh injury, weakening Atalanta's defense
Venezia's top scorers show modest goal threat
John Yeboah leads Venezia with 2 goals in last 5 games, showing some scoring potential despite team's struggles
Atalanta's defensive midfield strength
Franck Kessié's high tackle and duel win rates provide Atalanta a midfield defensive edge
Atalanta's recent home scoring consistency
Atalanta has scored in last 3 home games, supporting their predicted 2 goals at home
Venezia's creative midfielders key to attack
Gianluca Busio's assist record and passing accuracy make him a key playmaker for Venezia
The context
Atalanta currently sit 11th in the league with 6 points from 4 games, showing better form than Venezia, who are bottom with no points from 5 games. The goal difference starkly contrasts too, with Atalanta boasting +9 compared to Venezia's -9, highlighting the gulf in recent performances.
Key insights
- J
John Yeboah Zamora
Venezia
Top scorer for Venezia with 2 goals in last 5 games, showing some scoring potential despite team's struggles.
Serie A 26/272 goals in last 5 games, 0.4 average per game
- F
Franck Kessié
Atalanta
High tackle and duel win rates provide Atalanta a midfield defensive edge.
Serie A 26/272.5 tackles per game, 66.7% duel win rate
Gianluca Busio
Venezia
Creative midfielder with 2 assists in 4 games and high passing accuracy, key to Venezia's attack.
Serie A 26/272 assists in 4 games, 92% passing accuracy
Analysis
Atalanta's recent home scoring consistency and midfield strength, particularly from Franck Kessié, provide them with a tactical edge. Despite missing key defender O. Kossounou due to a thigh injury, their defensive midfield presence remains solid. Venezia's attack relies heavily on John Yeboah Zamora and creative midfielder Gianluca Busio, but their overall poor form and defensive frailties make them underdogs in this encounter.
Key facts
- 1.Atalanta rank 11th with 6 points from 4 games (W2 D0 L2).
- 2.Venezia are 20th with 0 points from 5 games (W0 D0 L5).
- 3.Atalanta have a +9 goal difference; Venezia have -9.
- 4.Atalanta average 1.50 points per game; Venezia average 0.00.
- 5.Atalanta have scored in their last 3 home games.
- 6.John Yeboah Zamora is Venezia's top scorer with 2 goals in 5 games.
- 7.Gianluca Busio leads Venezia with 2 assists in 4 games.
- 8.Atalanta's Franck Kessié has a high tackle rate of 2.5 per game.
Prediction
We predict Atalanta to lead 1-0 at halftime and ultimately secure a 2-1 victory. The match is expected to feature around three cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled game. Atalanta's superior form and goal difference suggest they will edge out Venezia in this fixture.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Atalanta
No standout top scorers flagged for Atalanta
Away — Venezia
The verdict
In summary, Atalanta's better league position, goal difference, and home scoring record make them favourites to claim all three points. Venezia will fight hard but are likely to come up short against La Dea's balanced and effective approach.
Prediction generated 20 Sep 2026, 17:55 UTC · Fipster Model v1.160
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Kessié
Assist: Krstović
Krstović
Assist: Elmas
Correia
Moreno
Yellow Card
Krstović
Hainaut
Assist: Sagrado
Juan Jesus
Yellow Card
De Ketelaere
Bellanova
Scalvini
Rowe
Kessié
Moreno
Bašić
Adams
Sohm
Card upgrade confirmed
Elmas
Red Card
Match Statistics
Atalanta
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 11J. RoweM
- 13ÉdersonM
- 16R. BellanovaD
- 17C. De KetelaereM
- 19F. KessiéM
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 31T. KristensenD
- 42G. ScalviniD
- 77D. ZappacostaD
- 90N. KrstovićF
- 99E. ElmasM
Substitutes
- 8Mario PasalicM
- 9G. ScamaccaF
- 10L. SamardžićM
- 18G. RaspadoriF
- 23S. KolašinacD
- 40R. ObriÄD
- 41J. IdeleM
- 47L. BernasconiD
- 57M. SportielloG
- 59N. ZalewskiM
- 70G. GaetanoM
Venezia
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1F. StankovićG
- 2M. MorenoD
- 10J. YeboahF
- 14Thierry CorreiaM
- 15Juan JesusD
- 18A. HainautM
- 19S. SohmM
- 25R. HalhalD
- 26T. BašićM
- 45A. AdamsF
- 71Kike PérezM
Substitutes
- 3J. SchingtienneD
- 5R. HapsD
- 7A. RrahmaniF
- 8Lamine DaboM
- 16R. MohammedD
- 20R. SagradoD
- 21Þ. HelgasonM
- 29L. LauberbachF
- 30M. DagassoM
- 55S. PanadaM
- 56K. LismanF
- 77Toni FernándezM
- 95A. GomesD
- 96L. MontipòG
Atalanta
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Krstović | F | 90 | 8.8 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1/1 |
| F. Kessié | M | 76 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| E. Elmas | M | 89 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | — |
| C. De Ketelaere | M | 60 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| R. Bellanova | D | 67 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| L. Samardžić | M | 30 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Éderson | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| M. Carnesecchi | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| G. Scalvini | D | 67 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Kristensen | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| L. Bernasconi | D | 23 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| D. Zappacosta | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| J. Rowe | M | 76 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0/2 |
| S. Kolašinac | D | 23 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Zalewski | M | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| G. Gaetano | M | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mario Pasalic | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Raspadori | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Scamacca | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Sportiello | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. ObriÄ | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Idele | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Venezia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hainaut | M | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| F. Stanković | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Sagrado | D | 82 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| Kike Pérez | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| T. Bašić | M | 83 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1/1 |
| S. Sohm | M | 87 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Rrahmani | F | 3 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| J. Yeboah | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3/5 |
| Juan Jesus | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Adams | F | 83 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| R. Halhal | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Lauberbach | F | 7 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Schingtienne | D | 7 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Þ. Helgason | M | 7 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thierry Correia | M | 8 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Moreno | D | 83 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Gomes | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Montipò | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Haps | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Panada | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Dagasso | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lamine Dabo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Lisman | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Toni Fernández | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Mohammed | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Atalanta vs Venezia?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Atalanta to win against Venezia.
- What score did Fipster predict for Atalanta vs Venezia?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Atalanta 2–1 Venezia.
- What were the win probabilities for Atalanta vs Venezia?
- Fipster's model gave Atalanta a 66% chance of winning, Venezia a 17% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 66% confidence — a high-confidence call.