Atalanta vs Parma
Parma stroll past Atalanta with clinical display
A commanding 3-0 victory for Parma silences the home crowd.
Parma delivered a surprising and convincing 3-0 win over Atalanta, with G. Fabbian opening the scoring just before half-time. An own goal by D. Zappacosta early in the second half and a strike from S. Lontani sealed the deal. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 4-1 home win, proving Parma's dominance on the day.
Outcome probability
Atalanta, affectionately known as La Dea, are poised to deliver a commanding performance against Parma in this regular season clash. With a strong attacking line-up and Parma struggling for form, the stage is set for a high-scoring encounter.
Match factors
Atalanta missing key attackers due to injury
Atalanta's top attackers Raspadori and Scamacca are confirmed out, reducing scoring options
Atalanta's superior attacking form at home
Atalanta averages 2.2 goals per home game, well above Parma's 0.5 away scoring rate
Parma's defensive reliance on Troilo
Troilo's strong defensive stats are crucial to contain Atalanta's attack but may be overwhelmed
Nikola Krstović's recent scoring streak
Krstović has scored multiple goals in recent matches, showing strong form and confidence
The context
Atalanta currently sit 12th in the league with 10 points from 8 games, while Parma languish in 18th place with just 5 points from 9 matches. Historically, Atalanta have the upper hand, having won 11 of their 19 meetings against Parma. Their head-to-head matches typically produce an average of 3.5 goals, suggesting an entertaining fixture ahead.
Key insights
- N
Nikola Krstović
Atalanta
Krstović has been in excellent form, scoring multiple goals recently and providing a key attacking threat for Atalanta.
Serie A 26/27Multiple goals in recent matches, top scorer for Atalanta
- M
Mariano Troilo
Parma
Troilo is Parma's defensive linchpin, leading in tackles and interceptions, but may struggle against Atalanta's potent attack.
Serie A 26/27Leads Parma in tackles and interceptions with above-average duel win rate
Analysis
Atalanta's attacking prowess at home is notable, averaging 2.2 goals per game, significantly higher than Parma's 0.5 goals away. Nikola Krstović has been in fine form recently, scoring multiple goals and providing a key threat up front. Parma will rely heavily on defender Mariano Troilo, who leads the team in tackles and interceptions, but containing Atalanta's attack will be a tough task. The absence of Atalanta's other top attackers due to injury slightly tempers their options but does not diminish their overall strength.
Key facts
- 1.Atalanta have won 11 of 19 head-to-head matches against Parma.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 3.5 total goals.
- 3.Atalanta rank 12th with 10 points from 8 games.
- 4.Parma rank 18th with 5 points from 9 games.
- 5.Atalanta average 2.2 goals per home game.
- 6.Parma average 0.5 goals per away game.
- 7.Nikola Krstović has scored multiple goals recently for Atalanta.
- 8.Mariano Troilo leads Parma in tackles and interceptions.
Prediction
We expect Atalanta to take an early lead, reflected in a predicted halftime score of 2-0. Their dominance should continue into the second half, culminating in a 4-1 victory. The match is also likely to see around four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Atalanta
Away — Parma
The verdict
In summary, Atalanta's superior form, home advantage, and attacking firepower make them clear favourites to secure a comfortable win over Parma. Fans can anticipate a lively match with plenty of goals and spirited play.
Prediction generated 29 Oct 2026, 21:49 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Fabbian
Assist: Sierro
Drobnic
Zappacosta (OG)
Lontani
Assist: Fabbian
Éderson
Rowe
Lontani
Touré
Fabbian
Zappacosta
Zalewski
Sierro
Match Statistics
Atalanta
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 8Mario PasalicM
- 11J. RoweM
- 13ÉdersonM
- 17C. De KetelaereM
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 40R. ObriÄD
- 42G. ScalviniD
- 47L. BernasconiD
- 59N. ZalewskiM
- 77D. ZappacostaD
- 90N. KrstovićF
Substitutes
- 7K. SulemanaF
- 10L. SamardžićM
- 41J. IdeleM
- 51M. SonzogniG
- 53M. PlaiaD
- 57M. SportielloG
- 99E. ElmasM
Parma
3-5-2Starting XI
- 4V. SierroM
- 14E. ValeriM
- 15E. Del PratoD
- 16M. KeitaM
- 19E. TouréF
- 27S. BritschgiM
- 30G. DaffaraG
- 37M. TroiloD
- 72D. DrobnicD
- 76S. LontaniF
- 80G. FabbianM
Substitutes
- 3A. N'DiayeD
- 7Ousmane DialloF
- 8B. CremaschiM
- 9D. RomeroF
- 11P. AlmqvistF
- 20M. FriganF
- 22S. GhidottiG
- 23N. ElphegeF
- 29F. CarboniD
- 32C. OrdoñezM
- 34Diego CarlosD
- 40E. CorviG
- 41H. NicolussiM
- 47Abdou KonateM
Atalanta
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. ObriÄ | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Zalewski | M | 76 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| K. Sulemana | F | 23 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| E. Elmas | M | 28 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| G. Scalvini | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Rowe | M | 67 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2/2 |
| Mario Pasalic | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| C. De Ketelaere | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3/8 |
| L. Bernasconi | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Éderson | M | 62 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| L. Samardžić | M | 14 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| N. Krstović | F | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 6 | 3 | — | — |
| J. Idele | M | 14 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Carnesecchi | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Zappacosta | D | 76 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| M. Plaia | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Sportiello | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Sonzogni | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Parma
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Daffara | G | 90 | 8.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Fabbian | M | 74 | 8.6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| S. Lontani | F | 67 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| V. Sierro | M | 89 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | — |
| C. Ordoñez | M | 23 | 7.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. N'Diaye | D | 44 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Nicolussi | M | 1 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| D. Drobnic | D | 46 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Frigan | F | 16 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| E. Del Prato | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Britschgi | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Keita | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Troilo | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Valeri | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| N. Elphege | F | 16 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Touré | F | 74 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Abdou Konate | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Carlos | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Ghidotti | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Almqvist | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Corvi | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Romero | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Carboni | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Cremaschi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ousmane Diallo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Atalanta vs Parma?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Atalanta to win against Parma.
- What score did Fipster predict for Atalanta vs Parma?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Atalanta 4–1 Parma.
- What were the win probabilities for Atalanta vs Parma?
- Fipster's model gave Atalanta a 95% chance of winning, Parma a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.