Atalanta vs Genoa
Match recap
Atalanta and Genoa drew 0–0 in their Serie A fixture. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.35 for Atalanta versus 0.54 for Genoa. Atalanta sit 7th in the Serie A table while Genoa are 16th.
Analysis
As the Serie A season nears its climax, Atalanta host Genoa in a fixture where history and current form suggest a slim home victory. Expect a tactical battle with Atalanta edging it by a single goal.
Atalanta currently sit comfortably in 7th place with 54 points, while Genoa languish in 14th with 39 points. Historically, Atalanta have dominated this matchup, winning 14 of their last 20 encounters. The match takes place at Atalanta's home ground, where they have shown solid performances this season.
Despite injuries to key attackers Scamacca and De Ketelaere, Atalanta's top scorer N. Krstović remains a potent threat, boasting 10 goals this season and excellent recent away form. Genoa's defensive frailties and the absence of creative midfielder Malinovskyi due to suspension further tip the scales. The predicted 1-0 scoreline reflects a tight contest, with Atalanta's defensive solidity and home advantage likely to be decisive.
Prediction
We forecast a 1-0 victory for Atalanta, with the goal coming in the first half. The match is expected to be disciplined with around four cards issued. Confidence in this outcome stands at 73%, supported by Atalanta's superior league position, head-to-head record, and key player performances.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Atalanta's key attackers injured
Scamacca and De Ketelaere are injured, reducing attacking options and creative supply, increasing reliance on Krstović.
Atalanta's strong away scoring form
Krstović and Scamacca have strong recent away scoring rates, likely to exploit Genoa's leaky defense.
Defensive absence weakens Atalanta
Scalvini's injury removes a key defensive and set-piece threat, potentially weakening Atalanta's defense and attack.
Genoa's defensive struggles
Genoa conceded in last 5 matches consistently, indicating vulnerability Atalanta can exploit.
Genoa missing key midfielder Malinovskyi
Malinovskyi's suspension reduces Genoa's creativity and goal threat from midfield, limiting their offensive options.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Atalanta's blend of historical dominance, home advantage, and key player form should see them edge out Genoa in a closely fought encounter. Genoa's struggles and missing personnel make an upset unlikely, so expect a narrow but deserved home win.
- Atalanta have won 14 of the last 20 matches against Genoa.
- Atalanta rank 7th with 54 points; Genoa are 14th with 39 points.
- N. Krstović is Atalanta's top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- Genoa's Malinovskyi is suspended, reducing their midfield creativity.
- Atalanta's Scamacca and De Ketelaere are injured, limiting attacking options.
- Predicted total cards for the match is 4, indicating a moderately physical game.
- The most probable fulltime scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Atalanta.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Atalanta
Away — Genoa
No standout top scorers flagged for Genoa
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Amorim
Yellow Card
Colombo
Djimsiti
Scamacca
Éderson
Yellow Card
Amorim
Ekhator
De Ketelaere
de Roon
Krstović
Yellow Card
Zappacosta
Sabelli
Vítinha
Match Statistics
Atalanta
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 9G. ScamaccaF
- 13ÉdersonM
- 15M. de RoonM
- 17C. De KetelaereF
- 19B. DjimsitiD
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 42G. ScalviniD
- 59N. ZalewskiM
- 69H. AhanorD
- 77D. ZappacostaM
- 90N. KrstovićF
Substitutes
- 3O. KossounouD
- 4I. HienD
- 5M. BakkerD
- 6Y. MusahM
- 7K. SulemanaF
- 8Mario PasalicM
- 10L. SamardžićM
- 16R. BellanovaD
- 18G. RaspadoriF
- 23S. KolašinacD
- 31F. RossiG
- 57M. SportielloG
Genoa
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 4Alexsandro AmorimM
- 5L. ØstigårdD
- 9VítinhaF
- 16J. BijlowG
- 20S. SabelliM
- 21J. EkhatorF
- 22J. VásquezD
- 27A. MarcandalliD
- 29L. ColomboF
- 32M. FrendrupM
- 77M. EllertssonM
Substitutes
- 1N. LealiG
- 3Aarón MartínD
- 10Junior MessiasF
- 13N. ZätterströmD
- 14J. OnanaM
- 17R. MalinovskyiM
- 18C. EkubanF
- 34S. OtoaD
- 39D. SommarivaG
- 70M. CornetF
- 73P. MasiniM
- 99W. L. OuedraogoD
Atalanta
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicola Zalewski | M | 97 | 8.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 3/4 |
| Charles De Ketelaere | F | 76 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1/2 |
| Honest Ahanor | D | 97 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Éderson | M | 97 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Marco Carnesecchi | G | 97 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Berat Djimsiti | D | 57 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Davide Zappacosta | M | 85 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Giorgio Scalvini | D | 97 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Marten de Roon(C) | M | 76 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gianluca Scamacca | F | 57 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Nikola Krstović | F | 97 | 5.9 | — | — | 4 | 3 | — | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Kamaldeen Sulemana | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raoul Bellanova | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Odilon Kossounou | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Sportiello | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francesco Rossi | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sead Kolašinac | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mitchel Bakker | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mario Pašalić | M | 21 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Isak Hien | D | 40 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Yunus Musah | M | 12 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giacomo Raspadori | F | 40 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Lazar Samardžić | M | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Genoa
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Bijlow | G | 97 | 8.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leo Østigård | D | 97 | 7.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Johan Vásquez(C) | D | 97 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Morten Frendrup | M | 97 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alessandro Marcandalli | D | 97 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Stefano Sabelli | M | 86 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Vitinha | F | 86 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Jeff Ekhator | F | 70 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 3/3 |
| Alexsandro Amorim | M | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Mikael Ellertsson | M | 97 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Lorenzo Colombo | F | 56 | 5.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Sebastian Otoa | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniele Sommariva | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicola Leali | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maxwel Cornet | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jean Onana | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wedtoin Latif Ouedraogo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nils Zätterström | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aarón Martín | D | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Patrizio Masini | M | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ruslan Malinovskyi | M | 27 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Junior Messias | F | 28 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caleb Ekuban | F | 41 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/4 |