Atalanta vs Cagliari
Cagliari stuns Atalanta with late penalty win
A spirited Cagliari side snatches victory at Atalanta despite early setbacks.
Cagliari secured a 2-1 victory over Atalanta in Serie A, overturning expectations with goals from P. Mendy and a decisive penalty by D. Maldini after the break. G. Scamacca's first-half strike for Atalanta offered hope for the hosts, but it wasn't enough to prevent the upset. This result defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a narrow home win, proving the visitors' resilience on the road.
Outcome probability
The new Serie A season kicks off with Atalanta facing Cagliari in what promises to be a closely contested encounter. Both teams have refreshed their squads over the summer, aiming to start the campaign on a positive note.
Key facts
- 1.Atalanta have signed T. Kristensen (loan), F. Kessié (free agent), and G. Gaetano (transfer) this summer.
- 2.Atalanta have released B. Djimsiti ahead of the new season.
- 3.Cagliari have signed H. Winks and Y. Sugawara (loan) this summer.
- 4.Cagliari have lost G. Gaetano (transfer) and M. Prati (loan).
- 5.The most probable fulltime scoreline is 1-0 in favour of Atalanta.
- 6.Halftime score is also predicted to be 1-0, consistent with the fulltime result.
- 7.Four cards are expected in the match, indicating a competitive game.
- 8.Atalanta finished last season ranked 7th with a significantly better goal difference than Cagliari, who finished 14th.
The context
Atalanta have strengthened their ranks with the arrivals of T. Kristensen on loan, F. Kessié as a free agent, and G. Gaetano on a permanent transfer, while parting ways with B. Djimsiti. Cagliari, meanwhile, have brought in H. Winks and Y. Sugawara (on loan), but have seen G. Gaetano leave and M. Prati go out on loan. These changes will shape the tactical approaches and squad depth for both sides as they begin their league journeys.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Atalanta
Away — Cagliari
Analysis
Looking at the probabilities, Atalanta hold the advantage with a 45% chance of winning, the most likely scoreline being 1-0. The halftime score is also expected to be 1-0, indicating a tight first half with Atalanta taking an early lead and then managing the game effectively. Cagliari will be aiming to break down a well-organised La Dea defence, but the visitors' goal difference and league position from last season suggest they might struggle to find the net here. The match is also expected to be competitive with around four cards likely, reflecting a spirited contest.
Prediction
The prediction is a 1-0 victory for Atalanta, with the home side scoring early and holding on to their lead. This result aligns with the statistical likelihoods and the squad strengths shaped by the summer transfer activity.
The verdict
As the season opener, this match sets the tone for both teams. Atalanta look poised to start strongly, leveraging their summer reinforcements and home advantage. Cagliari will need to be resilient and perhaps look to build on this experience as the season progresses.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Mendy
Assist: Adopo
Scamacca
Assist: De Ketelaere
Fazzini
Maldini
Penalty
Zé Pedro
Scamacca
Kolašinac
Samardžić
Mendy
Maldini
Kessié
Match Statistics
Atalanta
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3O. KossounouD
- 9G. ScamaccaF
- 10L. SamardžićM
- 11J. RoweF
- 13ÉdersonM
- 16R. BellanovaD
- 17C. De KetelaereF
- 19F. KessiéM
- 23S. KolašinacD
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 42G. ScalviniD
Substitutes
- 8Mario PasalicM
- 18G. RaspadoriF
- 22T. PompeiG
- 31T. KristensenD
- 40R. ObriÄD
- 47L. BernasconiD
- 57M. SportielloG
- 59N. ZalewskiM
- 77D. ZappacostaD
- 90N. KrstovićF
- 99E. ElmasM
Cagliari
4-4-1-1Starting XI
- 1E. CaprileG
- 2Zé PedroD
- 4A. RomanoM
- 6H. WinksM
- 8M. AdopoM
- 10J. FazziniM
- 14A. DeiolaD
- 15J. RodríguezD
- 31P. MendyF
- 33A. ObertD
- 70D. MaldiniF
Substitutes
- 9Kevin CarlosF
- 12A. SherriG
- 20R. CiervoF
- 21R. GagliardiniM
- 22R. KoflerD
- 23B. RadunovićG
- 24G. AurelioD
- 26Y. MinaD
- 27J. LitetaM
- 28Y. SugawaraD
- 30A. AkarakiriM
- 32Ivan Stoyanov SulevM
- 39A. FaderaF
- 79Y. MassolinM
Atalanta
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franck Kessié | M | 86 | 7.7 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| Gianluca Scamacca | F | 68 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Jonathan Rowe | F | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 3/5 |
| Lazar Samardžić | M | 76 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 5/5 |
| Éderson(C) | M | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Odilon Kossounou | D | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giorgio Scalvini | D | 95 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Charles De Ketelaere | F | 95 | 6.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 1/5 |
| Marco Carnesecchi | G | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raoul Bellanova | D | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Sead Kolašinac | D | 68 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Thomas Pompei | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eljif Elmas | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Relja Obrić | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thomas Kristensen | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicola Zalewski | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Sportiello | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Davide Zappacosta | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giacomo Raspadori | F | 19 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi | D | 27 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Mario Pašalić | M | 9 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikola Krstović | F | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
Cagliari
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elia Caprile | G | 95 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alessandro Deiola(C) | D | 95 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Harry Winks | M | 95 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Mendy | F | 79 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Juan Rodríguez | D | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Michel Adopo | M | 95 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Daniel Maldini | F | 79 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 2/5 |
| Zé Pedro | D | 68 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Adam Obert | D | 95 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Alessandro Romano | M | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/3 |
| Jacopo Fazzini | M | 57 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Demi Akarakiri | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gagliardini | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yerry Mina | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alen Sherri | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ivan Sulev | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joseph Liteta | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Boris Radunović | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giuseppe Aurelio | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riccardo Ciervo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yanis Massolin | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raphael Kofler | D | 16 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alieu Fadera | F | 38 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kevin Carlos Omoruyi | F | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yukinari Sugawara | D | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Atalanta vs Cagliari?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Atalanta to win against Cagliari.
- What score did Fipster predict for Atalanta vs Cagliari?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Atalanta 1–0 Cagliari.
- What were the win probabilities for Atalanta vs Cagliari?
- Fipster's model gave Atalanta a 57% chance of winning, Cagliari a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 57% confidence — a medium-confidence call.