Atalanta vs Bologna
Match recap
Bologna beat Atalanta 1–0 in their Serie A fixture. Orsolini scored for Bologna. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.79 for Atalanta versus 0.70 for Bologna. Atalanta sit 7th in the Serie A table while Bologna are 8th.
Analysis
As the Serie A season nears its climax, Atalanta host Bologna in what promises to be a closely contested affair. Both teams have their sights set on crucial points, but the home side's recent form and historical edge suggest a slim victory.
Atalanta and Bologna have met 20 times recently, with Atalanta winning 12 of those encounters. Currently sitting 7th in the league, Atalanta boast a superior goal difference and points tally compared to 8th-placed Bologna, setting the stage for a competitive match at Gewiss Stadium.
Atalanta's attack will rely heavily on N. Krstović, who leads the team with 10 goals and 5 assists this season, showing excellent recent form. Injuries to key attackers Scamacca and Raspadori limit options, but Krstović's dual threat role is pivotal. Bologna's main threat comes from R. Orsolini, who has netted 8 goals this season. Defensive injuries for Atalanta may offer Bologna chances, but the home side's overall solidity and tactical setup should prevail.
Prediction
The prediction is a 1-0 win for Atalanta, with the only goal likely coming in the first half. The match is expected to be tight, with a total of four cards anticipated, reflecting a competitive but controlled game. Confidence in this outcome stands at 60%, supported by statistical trends and player form.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Atalanta's key attackers unavailable
Scamacca, Raspadori, and De Ketelaere are injured, limiting attacking options and shifting burden to Krstović.
Krstović's dual threat role
Krstović leads in goals and assists, central to Atalanta's attack and likely focal point against Bologna's defense.
Atalanta's defensive solidity challenged by injuries
Injuries to defenders Djimsiti and Bernasconi may weaken defense, offering Bologna chances to exploit.
Krstović and Orsolini in good recent form
Both players have scored recently, increasing likelihood of goal contributions in this match.
Bologna's Orsolini as key offensive threat
Orsolini's consistent scoring and minutes make him Bologna's main goal threat to watch.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Atalanta's home advantage, combined with Krstović's form and a solid league position, make them favourites to edge out Bologna by a single goal. Expect a disciplined match with few goals but plenty of tactical intrigue.
- Atalanta have won 12 of 20 head-to-head matches against Bologna.
- Head-to-head matches average 2.4 goals, aligning with a low-scoring prediction.
- Atalanta currently rank 7th with 58 points, ahead of Bologna's 8th place and 52 points.
- Atalanta's goal difference is significantly better (+14) than Bologna's this season.
- N. Krstović leads Atalanta with 10 goals and 5 assists this season.
- Bologna's R. Orsolini is their top scorer with 8 goals this campaign.
- Injuries to Atalanta's Scamacca and Raspadori reduce attacking options.
- Prediction confidence for a 1-0 Atalanta win is 60%.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Atalanta
Away — Bologna
No standout top scorers flagged for Bologna
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pobega
Yellow Card
Zalewski
de Roon
Raspadori
Castro
Bernardeschi
Pobega
Pasalic
Yellow Card
Orsolini
Assist: Rowe
De Ketelaere
Zappacosta
Rowe
Match Statistics
Atalanta
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 13ÉdersonM
- 15M. de RoonM
- 17C. De KetelaereF
- 18G. RaspadoriF
- 19B. DjimsitiD
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 42G. ScalviniD
- 59N. ZalewskiM
- 69H. AhanorD
- 77D. ZappacostaM
- 90N. KrstovićF
Substitutes
- 5M. BakkerD
- 6Y. MusahM
- 7K. SulemanaF
- 8Mario PasalicM
- 9G. ScamaccaF
- 10L. SamardžićM
- 16R. BellanovaD
- 23S. KolašinacD
- 31F. RossiG
- 40R. ObriÄD
- 45D. VavassoriF
- 57M. SportielloG
Bologna
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Ł. SkorupskiG
- 4T. PobegaM
- 5E. HellandD
- 8R. FreulerM
- 9S. CastroF
- 10F. BernardeschiM
- 11J. RoweM
- 14T. HeggemD
- 17João MárioD
- 19L. FergusonM
- 33Juan MirandaD
Substitutes
- 6N. MoroM
- 7R. OrsoliniF
- 13F. RavagliaG
- 15B. TomaševićD
- 20N. ZorteaD
- 21J. OdgaardF
- 22C. LykogiannisD
- 23S. SohmM
- 24T. DallingaF
- 25M. PessinaG
- 29L. De SilvestriD
- 30B. DomínguezF
Atalanta
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles De Ketelaere | F | 82 | 7.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Nicola Zalewski | M | 63 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Giorgio Scalvini | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marten de Roon(C) | M | 63 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Marco Carnesecchi | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Éderson | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Davide Zappacosta | M | 88 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Honest Ahanor | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giacomo Raspadori | F | 64 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Nikola Krstović | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Berat Djimsiti | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Dominic Vavassori | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sead Kolašinac | D | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francesco Rossi | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gianluca Scamacca | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Sportiello | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raoul Bellanova | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lazar Samardžić | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Relja Obrić | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yunus Musah | M | 27 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Mario Pašalić | M | 27 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Mitchel Bakker | D | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana | F | 26 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
Bologna
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Miranda | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Łukasz Skorupski | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Torbjørn Heggem | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eivind Helland | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| João Mário | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Tommaso Pobega | M | 69 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Jonathan Rowe | M | 88 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3/9 |
| Lewis Ferguson(C) | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Santiago Castro | F | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Remo Freuler | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Federico Bernardeschi | M | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/5 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Massimo Pessina | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bodin Tomašević | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamín Domínguez | F | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nadir Zortea | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Federico Ravaglia | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Charalampos Lykogiannis | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jens Odgaard | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lorenzo De Silvestri | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Simon Sohm | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riccardo Orsolini | F | 21 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Nikola Moro | M | 21 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Thijs Dallinga | F | 21 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |