Aston Villa vs Sunderland
Match recap
Aston Villa beat Sunderland 4–3 in their Premier League fixture. Watkins, Watkins, Rogers, Abraham, and Abraham scored for Aston Villa; Rigg, Hume, and Isidor replied for Sunderland. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.84 for Aston Villa versus 1.73 for Sunderland. Aston Villa sit 4th in the Premier League table while Sunderland are 7th.
Analysis
Aston Villa host Sunderland in what promises to be a tightly contested fixture. Both teams have shown resilience this season, and the prediction points to a stalemate with a 1-1 scoreline.
Aston Villa currently sit 4th in the league with 58 points, while Sunderland are 11th with 46 points. Historically, Villa have the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, but Sunderland have proven tricky opponents with six draws in 16 matches. The venue, Villa Park, gives the home side a slight edge, but Sunderland's fighting spirit cannot be underestimated.
Villa's attacking trio, led by Ollie Watkins with 9 goals this season, have been in good form at home, while midfielder Matty Rogers contributes both goals and assists. Sunderland rely heavily on Brobbey, their top scorer, though his fitness is uncertain. Defensive vulnerabilities on Sunderland's side and Villa's strong home scoring record suggest chances for both teams, but neither is likely to dominate fully.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, with a 35% confidence level. Both teams are expected to score once, reflecting their balanced strengths and recent performances. The match should be competitive, with neither side able to secure a decisive advantage.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Villa's attacking trio in form
Watkins, Rogers, and McGinn show strong recent scoring and assist form, likely to challenge Sunderland's defense
Villa missing key midfielders
Injuries to Buendía, McGinn, and Onana may limit creativity and midfield control
Sunderland's defensive vulnerabilities
Sunderland concedes 1.2 goals per game and has key defensive absences, Villa's attackers can exploit
Villa's strong home scoring record
Villa averages 1.6 goals at home, with recent high-scoring matches against Sunderland
Sunderland's reliance on Brobbey
Brobbey is Sunderland's main goal threat but is questionable due to injury, reducing their attacking options
Key Takeaways
In summary, fans can anticipate an entertaining match with goals from both sides but ultimately a shared point. Villa's home advantage and attacking prowess meet Sunderland's resilience, making a draw the sensible forecast.
- Aston Villa have won 7 of 16 meetings against Sunderland, with 6 draws and 3 Sunderland wins.
- Head-to-head matches average 2.6 goals per game, indicating open play.
- Aston Villa rank 4th in the league with 58 points from 33 games.
- Sunderland sit 11th with 46 points from 33 games.
- Ollie Watkins is Aston Villa's top scorer with 9 goals this season, including strong home form.
- Matty Rogers has contributed 8 goals and 5 assists, key in Villa's attack.
- Sunderland's Brobbey is their top scorer with 6 goals but has injury doubts.
- Villa average 1.6 goals per home game, showing strong attacking form at Villa Park.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Aston Villa
Away — Sunderland
No standout top scorers flagged for Sunderland
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Watkins
Assist: McGinn
Rigg
Assist: Sadiki
Watkins
Assist: Maatsen
Rogers
Assist: Watkins
Alderete
Rigg
Alderete
Rigg
Reinildo
Reinildo
Sadiki
Yellow Card
Barkley
Maatsen
McGinn
Watkins
Watkins
McGinn
Brobbey
Hume
Isidor
Assist: Le Fée
Abraham
Assist: Digne
Mukiele
Yellow Card
Ballard
Yellow Card
Onana
Yellow Card
Abraham
Assist: Digne
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | +44 | 85 |
| 3 |  Manchester United | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | +19 | 71 |
| 4 |  Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | +7 | 65 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | +10 | 60 |
| 6 |  Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | +4 | 57 |
| 7 |  Sunderland | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | -6 | 54 |
| 8 |  Brighton | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | +6 | 53 |
Match Statistics
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2M. CashD
- 4E. KonsaD
- 5T. MingsD
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 8Y. TielemansM
- 11O. WatkinsF
- 22I. MaatsenD
- 23E. MartínezG
- 24A. OnanaM
- 27M. RogersM
Substitutes
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 12L. DigneD
- 18T. AbrahamF
- 19J. SanchoF
- 21Douglas LuizM
- 26L. BogardeM
- 31L. BaileyF
- 40M. BizotG
Sunderland
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 9B. BrobbeyF
- 11C. RiggM
- 13L. O'NienD
- 15O. AldereteD
- 17ReinildoD
- 19H. DiarraM
- 20N. MukieleD
- 22R. RoefsG
- 27N. SadikiM
- 28E. Le FéeM
- 34G. XhakaM
Substitutes
- 3D. CirkinD
- 5D. BallardD
- 6L. GeertruidaD
- 7C. TalbiF
- 12Eliezer MayendaF
- 18W. IsidorF
- 31M. EllborgG
- 32T. HumeD
- 50Harrison JonesM
Aston Villa
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers | M | 90 | 9.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Ollie Watkins | F | 80 | 8.6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0/1 |
| John McGinn(C) | M | 80 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | 2/4 |
| Youri Tielemans | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emiliano Martinez | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Amadou Onana | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Ian Maatsen | D | 70 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Ross Barkley | M | 70 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Ezri Konsa | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matty Cash | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Tyrone Mings | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Victor Lindelof | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leon Bailey | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Bizot | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Douglas Luiz | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lamare Bogarde | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tammy Abraham | F | 10 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Digne | D | 20 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Emiliano Buendía | M | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| Jadon Sancho | F | 10 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Sunderland
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rigg | M | 63 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Enzo Le Fée | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Luke O'Nien | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Granit Xhaka(C) | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Noah Sadiki | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| Habib Diarra | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Brian Brobbey | F | 84 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Omar Alderete | D | 63 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nordi Mukiele | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Reinildo Mandava | D | 63 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Robin Roefs | G | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Eliezer Mayenda | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Harrison Jones | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Melker Ellborg | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dennis Cirkin | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lutsharel Geertruida | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Trai Hume | D | 27 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Wilson Isidor | F | 14 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Daniel Ballard | D | 27 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chemsdine Talbi | F | 27 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |