Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Forest edge Villa in tight contest
Nottingham Forest's L. Delap and Igor Jesus secure a narrow win at Villa Park.
Nottingham Forest claimed a narrow 2-1 victory over Aston Villa in a closely fought Premier League encounter. L. Delap struck just after the break to give Forest the lead, before Alysson Edward pulled Villa level in the 74th minute. However, Igor Jesus restored Forest's advantage late on to seal the win. Fipster's prediction of an away win was on the money, though the exact scoreline proved more eventful than expected.
Outcome probability
The new season kicks off with Aston Villa facing Nottingham Forest in what promises to be a closely contested encounter. Both sides have reshaped their squads over the summer, aiming to start the campaign on a positive note.
Key facts
- 1.Aston Villa have added J. Manzambi, João Gomes, and L. Goretzka to their squad this summer.
- 2.Nottingham Forest have signed Gustavo Sá, X. Schlager, and O. Diomande ahead of the new season.
- 3.Aston Villa finished last season with a better goal difference than Nottingham Forest.
- 4.Aston Villa averaged 1.71 points per game last season compared to Nottingham Forest's 1.16.
- 5.The predicted final score is 0-1 in favour of Nottingham Forest.
- 6.The halftime score is also predicted to be 0-1, indicating an early lead for Forest.
- 7.Three cards are expected in the match, suggesting a competitive encounter.
The context
Aston Villa have strengthened their ranks with the arrivals of J. Manzambi, João Gomes, and L. Goretzka, while parting ways with O. Watkins, M. Rogers, and L. Digne. Nottingham Forest have bolstered their squad by signing Gustavo Sá, X. Schlager, and O. Diomande, but have lost E. Anderson. These changes set the stage for an intriguing battle between two teams eager to make their mark.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Aston Villa
Away — Nottingham Forest
Analysis
Despite Aston Villa's stronger points-per-game average and superior goal difference last season, the prediction leans towards a Nottingham Forest win. The modal scoreline of 0-1 suggests a tight match where Forest's defence might just hold firm. The halftime score prediction of 0-1 aligns with the full-time result, indicating Forest could take an early lead and maintain it. The expected three cards hint at a competitive but controlled game.
Prediction
The forecast is for Nottingham Forest to clinch a narrow 1-0 victory over Aston Villa. Forest's summer signings could provide the edge needed to overcome the Villans, who will be looking to integrate their new players effectively. Expect a disciplined performance from Forest to secure all three points.
The verdict
As the season opener unfolds, Nottingham Forest appear poised to start with a win, capitalising on their summer reinforcements and a solid defensive approach. Aston Villa will need to find cohesion quickly if they are to respond in the matches ahead.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Torres
Ndoye
Yellow Card
Murillo
Yellow Card
Jackson
Hemmings
Jackson
Yellow Card
Delap
Assist: Murillo
Schlager
Yellow Card
Barkley
Buendía
Alysson Edward
Assist: McGinn
Delap
Yellow Card
Ndoye
McAtee
Yellow Card
McAtee
Igor Jesus
Assist: Gibbs-White
Delap
Mings
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 11 |  Ipswich | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 |  Nottingham Forest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 |  Manchester United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 |  Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
Match Statistics
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Z. SuzukiG
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 8B. KamaraM
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 11N. JacksonF
- 14Pau TorresD
- 22I. MaatsenD
- 29A. Wan-BissakaD
- 53George HemmingsM
Substitutes
- 5T. MingsD
- 13M. RuggeriD
- 17A. GarnachoF
- 18T. AbrahamF
- 19I. MbayeF
- 26L. BogardeM
- 40M. BizotG
- 44J. ManzambiM
- 47Alysson EdwardF
Nottingham Forest
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 2O. DiomandeD
- 3N. WilliamsM
- 5MurilloD
- 10M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 14D. NdoyeM
- 19L. DelapF
- 21X. SchlagerM
- 24J. McAteeM
- 26M. SelsG
- 27D. MuñozM
- 34O. AinaD
Substitutes
- 6I. SangaréM
- 7C. Hudson-OdoiF
- 8N. DomínguezM
- 9C. WoodF
- 11Igor JesusF
- 12JohnG
- 15A. KalimuendoF
- 22R. YatesM
- 25L. NetzD
Aston Villa
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alysson Edward | F | 44 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| J. McGinn | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| A. Wan-Bissaka | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Z. Suzuki | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pau Torres | D | 25 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Barkley | M | 63 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| T. Mings | D | 65 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| I. Mbaye | F | 27 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| I. Maatsen | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/3 |
| V. Lindelöf | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| B. Kamara | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| T. Abraham | F | 44 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| George Hemmings | M | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| J. Manzambi | M | 27 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| N. Jackson | F | 46 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| E. Buendía | M | 63 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Bizot | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ruggeri | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Garnacho | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Bogarde | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Sels | G | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Jesus | F | 15 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| L. Delap | F | 91 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| M. Gibbs-White | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0/1 |
| D. Muñoz | M | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0/2 |
| X. Schlager | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| O. Diomande | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| O. Aina | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Murillo | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| N. Williams | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| I. Sangaré | M | 8 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| D. Ndoye | M | 75 | 6.4 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. McAtee | M | 82 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| C. Wood | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Kalimuendo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Domínguez | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Netz | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Hudson-Odoi | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Yates | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Nottingham Forest to win against Aston Villa.
- What score did Fipster predict for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Aston Villa 0–1 Nottingham Forest.
- What were the win probabilities for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
- Fipster's model gave Aston Villa a 24% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 51% confidence — a medium-confidence call.