Aston Villa vs Liverpool
Match recap
Aston Villa beat Liverpool 4–2 in their Premier League fixture. Rogers, Watkins, Watkins, and McGinn scored for Aston Villa; van Dijk and van Dijk replied for Liverpool. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.91 for Aston Villa versus 1.52 for Liverpool. Aston Villa sit 4th in the Premier League table while Liverpool are 5th.
Analysis
As the Premier League season nears its climax, Aston Villa host Liverpool in what promises to be a tightly contested encounter. Both teams sit level on points, making this clash crucial for their final standings.
Liverpool hold a superior head-to-head record with 13 wins out of 20 meetings against Villa, who have managed 4 wins and 3 draws. Both sides have shown consistent scoring ability, with an average of 3.5 goals per match in their past encounters.
Villa's attacking spearhead Ollie Watkins, despite injury doubts, remains a key threat with 11 goals this season and strong recent form at home. Liverpool, missing Mohamed Salah due to injury, will rely on their collective midfield and defensive solidity. Villa's Lucas Digne provides excellent service from wide areas, while Villa's midfield creativity is boosted by the return of John McGinn. The expected goals difference is minimal, suggesting a balanced game likely to end in a draw.
Prediction
The forecast is a 1-1 draw, with both teams expected to find the net once. The halftime score is likely to be goalless, reflecting cautious starts from both sides. The match is also predicted to see around four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled affair.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Key attackers' injury doubts affect scoring potential
Watkins (Villa) and Salah (Liverpool) are questionable, reducing top scoring threats for both sides.
Villa's wide play via Digne creates assist opportunities
Digne's crossing and set-piece skills provide Villa an edge in creating chances from wide areas.
Villa's home scoring streak vs Liverpool's consistent away scoring
Villa have scored in last 5 home games; Liverpool scored in last 5 away games, indicating offensive momentum.
Villa's midfield creativity vs Liverpool's defensive absences
Villa's McGinn return and Rogers' form contrast with Liverpool's injury-hit midfield and defense.
Recent encounters suggest balanced scoring chances
Previous matches show both teams scoring, supporting predicted 1-1 draw outcome.
Key Takeaways
In summary, this Premier League fixture is set to be a closely fought contest with neither side able to claim full dominance. Fans can expect a competitive match with goals from both teams, culminating in a fair share of points.
- Liverpool lead head-to-head with 13 wins out of 20 matches against Aston Villa.
- Aston Villa have won 4 and drawn 3 of their 20 meetings with Liverpool.
- Head-to-head matches average 3.5 goals, indicating an open game style.
- Both teams are level on 59 points in the league standings, with Liverpool having a better goal difference.
- Ollie Watkins is Aston Villa's top scorer with 11 goals this season, showing strong recent form.
- Lucas Digne leads Villa's assists with 5, excelling in crossing and set-pieces.
- Mohamed Salah's injury absence impacts Liverpool's attacking threat significantly.
- The predicted total cards for the match is 4, suggesting a moderately physical game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Aston Villa
Away — Liverpool
No standout top scorers flagged for Liverpool
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Cash
Yellow Card
Rogers
Assist: Digne
Watkins
Yellow Card
Lindelöf
van Dijk
Assist: Szoboszlai
Watkins
Assist: Rogers
Gomez
Yellow Card
Gravenberch
Gomez
McGinn
Yellow Card
Watkins
Gakpo
Buendía
McGinn
Assist: Watkins
McGinn
Tielemans
van Dijk
Assist: Szoboszlai
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | +44 | 85 |
| 3 |  Manchester United | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | +19 | 71 |
| 4 |  Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | +7 | 65 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | +10 | 60 |
| 6 |  Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | +4 | 57 |
Match Statistics
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2M. CashD
- 3V. LindelöfM
- 4E. KonsaD
- 7J. McGinnM
- 8Y. TielemansM
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 11O. WatkinsF
- 12L. DigneD
- 14Pau TorresD
- 23E. MartínezG
- 27M. RogersM
Substitutes
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 16Andrés GarcíaD
- 18T. AbrahamF
- 19J. SanchoF
- 21Douglas LuizM
- 22I. MaatsenD
- 26L. BogardeM
- 31L. BaileyF
- 40M. BizotG
Liverpool
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2J. GomezD
- 4V. van DijkD
- 5I. KonatéD
- 6M. KerkezD
- 8D. SzoboszlaiM
- 10A. Mac AllisterM
- 17C. JonesM
- 18C. GakpoF
- 25G. MamardashviliG
- 38R. GravenberchM
- 73R. NgumohaM
Substitutes
- 7F. WirtzM
- 11Mohamed SalahF
- 14F. ChiesaF
- 26A. RobertsonD
- 28F. WoodmanG
- 42T. NyoniM
- 79W. WrightF
Aston Villa
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers | M | 99 | 8.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1/1 |
| Ollie Watkins | F | 99 | 8.3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1/1 |
| John McGinn(C) | M | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Youri Tielemans | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Emiliano Martínez | G | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Digne | D | 99 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ezri Konsa | D | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Emiliano Buendía | M | 85 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Pau Torres | D | 99 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Victor Lindelöf | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matty Cash | D | 99 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Leon Bailey | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrés García | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lamare Bogarde | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Bizot | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tammy Abraham | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Barkley | M | 54 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jadon Sancho | F | 9 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Douglas Luiz | M | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ian Maatsen | D | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
Liverpool
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virgil van Dijk(C) | D | 99 | 8.3 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Giorgi Mamardashvili | G | 99 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Curtis Jones | M | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Rio Ngumoha | M | 99 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 2/5 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | M | 99 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Ryan Gravenberch | M | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Cody Gakpo | F | 74 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | M | 99 | 6.3 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0/1 |
| Ibrahima Konaté | D | 99 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miloš Kerkez | D | 99 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Joe Gomez | D | 66 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Freddie Woodman | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mor Talla Ndiaye | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Will Wright | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Trey Nyoni | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andy Robertson | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Federico Chiesa | F | 33 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Mohamed Salah | F | 25 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Florian Wirtz | M | 33 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |