Aston Villa vs Fulham
Match recap
Aston Villa and Fulham drew 1–1 in their Premier League fixture. McGinn and Jackson scored for Aston Villa; Suzuki replied for Fulham. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.74 for Aston Villa versus 2.23 for Fulham. Aston Villa sit 9th in the Premier League table while Fulham are 15th.
Outcome probability
Aston Villa and Fulham face off in what promises to be a closely contested Premier League clash. Both sides have had their moments this season, but the Villans hold a slight edge in form and league standing.
Match factors
Aston Villa missing key midfielders and defenders
Villa's midfielders Manzambi and Onana plus defenders Ruggeri and Wan-Bissaka are confirmed out, weakening squad depth and defensive options
Nicolas Jackson's strong recent scoring form
Jackson scored multiple goals in recent home matches, showing he is Villa's main attacking threat
Villa's defensive passing superiority
Lindelöf and Kamara exhibit passing accuracy and volume well above league averages for their positions, aiding Villa's build-up play
Fulham's Bassey and Iwobi key to creative and defensive balance
Bassey's defensive solidity and Iwobi's creative passing are crucial for Fulham to counter Villa's attack
Manzambi's uncertain fitness but recent impact
Manzambi is doubtful but has scored and assisted recently, potentially influencing Villa's midfield creativity if fit
The context
This match is part of the regular season's ninth round, with Aston Villa sitting comfortably in 6th place on 11 points, while Fulham struggle near the bottom at 19th with just 5 points. Historically, Villa have a slight upper hand, having won 11 of their 20 encounters against Fulham.
Key insights
- V
V. Lindelöf
Aston Villa
Exceptional passing accuracy well above league average for defenders, aiding Villa's build-up play.
Premier League 26/2791-92% passing accuracy, 32.5 passes/game avg
- B
B. Kamara
Aston Villa
Strong midfield control with high passing volume and defensive contributions, no disciplinary issues.
Premier League 26/2786-87% passing accuracy, ~47 passes/game
- N
N. Jackson
Aston Villa
Key attacking threat with multiple recent goals and high match ratings, focal point of Villa's attack.
Premier League 26/27Multiple goals in recent matches, match ratings up to 8.93
- J
J. Manzambi
Aston Villa
Doubtful status but recent goal and assist contributions could influence Villa's midfield creativity if fit.
Premier League 26/27Scored and assisted in recent games
- C
C. Bassey
Fulham
Defensive solidity with high passing volume and accuracy, crucial for Fulham's balance.
Premier League 26/27~69-70 passes/game, 89-90% accuracy, 62% duel win rate
- A
A. Iwobi
Fulham
Creative midfielder with high passing accuracy and volume, recent goal scorer and key assist provider.
Premier League 26/2791% passing accuracy, ~58-59 passes/game
Analysis
Villa's defensive stability is bolstered by the impressive passing accuracy of defenders like Victor Lindelöf and midfielder Boubacar Kamara, who help maintain possession and control the tempo. Nicolas Jackson has been a key attacking threat recently, scoring multiple goals at home. Fulham will rely on the defensive solidity of Calvin Bassey and the creativity of Alex Iwobi to counter Villa's advances. However, Villa's injury woes in midfield and defence could limit their options, making this a tight affair likely decided by a single goal.
Key facts
- 1.Aston Villa have won 11 of 20 matches against Fulham.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.5 goals per game.
- 3.Aston Villa rank 6th with 11 points from 8 games.
- 4.Fulham rank 19th with 5 points from 7 games.
- 5.Aston Villa have a points-per-game advantage of 1.38 over Fulham's 0.71.
Prediction
Expect a cautious first half with no goals, as both teams feel each other out. The breakthrough is likely to come in the second half, with Aston Villa edging out Fulham 1-0. The match should see a moderate number of cards, around three, reflecting the competitive but controlled nature of the game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Aston Villa
Away — Fulham
The verdict
In summary, Aston Villa's slight advantage in form and home conditions should see them claim a narrow victory. Fulham will make it tough, but the Villans' ability to control the midfield and capitalise on key moments should be enough to secure all three points.
Prediction generated 24 Oct 2026, 15:56 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Penalty confirmed
McGinn
Missed Penalty
Affengruber
Yellow Card
Jackson
Assist: Manzambi
Bassey
Yellow Card
Suzuki (OG)
Alysson Edward
Goretzka
Manzambi
Iwobi
Cash
Yellow Card
Cairney
Yellow Card
King
Bobb
Kamara
Castagne
García
McGinn
Match Statistics
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Z. SuzukiG
- 2M. CashD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 7J. McGinnM
- 8B. KamaraM
- 11N. JacksonF
- 14Pau TorresD
- 22I. MaatsenD
- 27L. GoretzkaM
- 44J. ManzambiM
- 47Alysson EdwardM
Substitutes
- 4T. Harwood-BellisD
- 5T. MingsD
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 17A. GarnachoF
- 19I. MbayeF
- 35João GomesM
- 39Brian MadjoF
- 40M. BizotG
Fulham
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1B. LenoG
- 3C. BasseyD
- 7Gonzalo GarcíaF
- 14Oscar BobbM
- 16S. BergeM
- 17A. IwobiM
- 19S. CharlesM
- 21T. CastagneD
- 22D. AffengruberD
- 24Joshua KingM
- 33A. RobinsonD
Substitutes
- 2K. TeteD
- 5J. AndersenD
- 8César PalaciosM
- 9Rodrigo MunizF
- 10T. CairneyM
- 11KevinF
- 15H. LarssonM
- 20Manuel ÁngelM
- 23B. LecomteG
Aston Villa
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Jackson | F | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 3/3 |
| J. Manzambi | M | 66 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/4 |
| I. Maatsen | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| V. Lindelöf | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Suzuki | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Buendía | M | 24 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| A. Garnacho | F | 3 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| I. Mbaye | F | 24 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Cash | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| B. Kamara | M | 79 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| L. Goretzka | M | 66 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Pau Torres | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| R. Barkley | M | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| João Gomes | M | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Alysson Edward | M | 66 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| J. McGinn | M | 87 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| Brian Madjo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Mings | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Bizot | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Harwood-Bellis | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Fulham
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Affengruber | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| S. Berge | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Castagne | D | 87 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| S. Charles | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Robinson | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Joshua King | M | 79 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/4 |
| B. Leno | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Muniz | F | 3 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Tete | D | 11 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Iwobi | M | 75 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Gonzalo García | F | 87 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| César Palacios | M | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Cairney | M | 15 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| H. Larsson | M | 3 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oscar Bobb | M | 79 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6/7 |
| C. Bassey | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Manuel Ángel | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Lecomte | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Andersen | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Aston Villa vs Fulham?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Aston Villa to win against Fulham.
- What score did Fipster predict for Aston Villa vs Fulham?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Aston Villa 1–0 Fulham.
- What were the win probabilities for Aston Villa vs Fulham?
- Fipster's model gave Aston Villa a 40% chance of winning, Fulham a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 40% confidence — a low-confidence call.