AS Roma vs Real Madrid
Real Madrid snatch thrilling win at Roma
A late flurry of goals seals a 4-3 victory for the visitors in a pulsating Champions League clash.
AS Roma looked to be in control with two goals from D. Malen and an early strike by M. de Roon, but Real Madrid fought back fiercely. Kylian Mbappé sparked the comeback, and a late trio of goals from Carlos Espí, Endrick, and A. Rüdiger turned the game on its head. This 4-3 result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Roma win, delivering an unexpected thriller.
Outcome probability
AS Roma and Real Madrid face off in a group stage match that promises a competitive edge. Both teams come into this fixture without key absences, setting the stage for a full-strength battle.
Match factors
No key player absences for either team
Both AS Roma and Real Madrid have no confirmed injuries, ensuring full-strength squads for this fixture.
Balanced attacking potential but no standout scorers
Neither team has top scorers listed, indicating a more collective attacking approach rather than reliance on individual goal threats.
Limited recent form data reduces prediction certainty
Insufficient match history and missing form data for both teams limit detailed player form analysis, increasing uncertainty in individual impact predictions.
Home advantage likely key in predicted 2-1 result
AS Roma's home setting and predicted win suggest tactical edge possibly from familiarity and crowd support despite lack of standout individual stats.
The context
This group stage fixture sees I Giallorossi take on Los Blancos. Neither side has standout individual scorers this season, suggesting a collective team effort will be crucial. The lack of recent form data adds an element of unpredictability to the encounter.
Key facts
- 1.AS Roma and Real Madrid have no confirmed injuries, ensuring full-strength squads.
- 2.Home win probability for AS Roma is the highest at 39%.
- 3.The most probable fulltime scoreline is 2-1 in favour of AS Roma.
- 4.Halftime score of 1-0 aligns well with the predicted final score.
- 5.Predicted total cards in the match is four, suggesting a competitive game.
- 6.Neither team relies on standout individual scorers, indicating a collective approach.
Analysis
The prediction leans towards a home win for AS Roma, with a likely halftime lead of 1-0 and a final score of 2-1. The home advantage could be pivotal, providing tactical familiarity and crowd support. Both teams appear evenly matched in attacking potential, but Roma's slight edge at home might just tip the scales.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — AS Roma
Away — Real Madrid
Prediction
Expect AS Roma to take the lead by halftime and hold on to a narrow 2-1 victory over Real Madrid. The match is projected to feature around four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled contest.
The verdict
In summary, AS Roma's home advantage and balanced team effort are set to secure them a hard-fought 2-1 win against Real Madrid. Fans should brace for a closely contested match with moments of quality from both sides.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Koné
de Roon
Assist: Soulé
Mbappé
Assist: Diomande
Dybala
Malen
Assist: Mora
Malen
Assist: Soulé
Goal confirmed
Vinícius Júnior
Dumfries
Mancini
Yellow Card
Mancini
Soulé
Wesley
Yellow Card
Tchouaméni
Diomande
Cucurella
Hermoso
Espí
Goal confirmed
Endrick
Assist: Güler
Pellegrini
Yellow Card
Rüdiger
Assist: Güler
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 24 |  Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 |  Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 |  AS Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 |  Slovan Bratislava | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Match Statistics
AS Roma
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 5E. NdickaD
- 14D. MalenF
- 15M. de RoonM
- 17M. KonéM
- 18M. SouléM
- 20N. MolinaM
- 21P. DybalaM
- 22HermosoD
- 23G. ManciniD
- 43WesleyM
- 95P. GolliniG
Substitutes
- 2D. RenschD
- 3K. KoulierakisD
- 7L. PellegriniM
- 9S. CastroF
- 26L. BalerdiD
- 32D. VásquezG
- 61N. PisilliM
- 70G. De MarziG
- 77E. LulliD
- 86Rodrigo MoraM
- 87D. GhilardiD
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1T. CourtoisG
- 5J. BellinghamM
- 7Vinícius JúniorM
- 8F. ValverdeM
- 10Kylian MbappéF
- 14A. TchouaméniM
- 16I. KonatéD
- 17Marc CucurellaD
- 22A. RüdigerD
- 24D. DumfriesD
- 25Y. DiomandeM
Substitutes
- 4D. HuijsenD
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 9EndrickF
- 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 13A. LuninG
- 15A. GülerM
- 18Álvaro FernándezD
- 19Carlos EspíF
- 20Bernardo SilvaM
- 21Brahim DíazM
- 26Sergio MestreG
- 27Thiago PitarchM
AS Roma
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Malen | F | 90 | 8.8 | 2 | — | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1/2 |
| M. Soulé | M | 63 | 8.5 | — | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2/4 |
| M. de Roon | M | 90 | 7.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Hermoso | D | 81 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| P. Gollini | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wesley | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| N. Pisilli | M | 73 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| N. Molina | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Rodrigo Mora | M | 44 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. Ndicka | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Koné | M | 17 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| P. Dybala | M | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| K. Koulierakis | D | 9 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Pellegrini | M | 27 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| L. Balerdi | D | 27 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Mancini | D | 63 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Vásquez | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Lulli | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. De Marzi | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Rensch | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Ghilardi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Castro | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Real Madrid
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Endrick | F | 31 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 2/3 |
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 4 | 4 | — | 1/4 |
| Carlos Espí | F | 12 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Rüdiger | D | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Y. Diomande | M | 78 | 7.1 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 6/7 |
| A. Güler | M | 31 | 7.0 | — | 2 | — | — | 3 | — |
| F. Valverde | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| T. Courtois | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 78 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Bellingham | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| I. Konaté | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Tchouaméni | M | 70 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Álvaro Fernández | D | 12 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 20 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vinícius Júnior | M | 59 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| D. Dumfries | D | 59 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Camavinga | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Lunin | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Alexander-Arnold | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Huijsen | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sergio Mestre | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Pitarch | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brahim Díaz | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
- Fipster's AI model predicted AS Roma to win against Real Madrid.
- What score did Fipster predict for AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
- Fipster predicted a final score of AS Roma 2–1 Real Madrid.
- What were the win probabilities for AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
- Fipster's model gave AS Roma a 95% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.