AS Roma vs Genoa
Roma secure solid win over Genoa
S. Castro and E. Lulli strike to give Roma a comfortable victory.
AS Roma delivered a controlled performance to beat Genoa 2-0 in Serie A, with goals from S. Castro shortly after the break and E. Lulli in the second half. While Fipster had predicted a more emphatic 4-0 scoreline, the call for a home win was spot on, reflecting Roma's dominance without the expected goal glut.
Outcome probability
AS Roma, known as I Giallorossi, face Genoa in a league stage match where the home side's recent performances and statistical advantages suggest a one-sided affair.
Match factors
AS Roma's superior attacking form
AS Roma averages 2.33 goals per game with strong home scoring (2.67), while Genoa struggles offensively with 0.6 goals per game.
Genoa's defensive vulnerabilities
Genoa concedes 2 goals per game on average and has lost 4 of last 6 matches, indicating defensive frailty against Roma's attack.
Key Genoa attackers in form despite team struggles
Milutin Osmajić and Donyell Malen have scored 3 and 3 goals respectively in last 5 games, providing focal points for Genoa's attack.
AS Roma missing key midfielders
AS Roma has 9 confirmed injuries including key midfielders, potentially weakening midfield control and creativity.
AS Roma's strong home scoring streak
Roma has scored in last 3 home games and kept 1 clean sheet, showing positive momentum at home.
The context
Roma currently sit 2nd in the league with 13 points from 5 games, boasting a strong goal difference of +11. Genoa, struggling at 16th with 4 points from 6 games and a -6 goal difference, have found it tough to keep up this season.
Key insights
- M
Milutin Osmajić
Genoa
Osmajić has scored 3 goals in the last 5 games, showing he's a key offensive threat despite Genoa's struggles.
Serie A 26/273 goals in last 5 games
- D
Donyell Malen
Genoa
Malen leads Genoa's scoring with 3 goals in 5 games, maintaining high shot volume and conversion rate.
Serie A 26/273 goals in last 5 games
- B
Bryan Cristante
AS Roma
Cristante is doubtful but influential if fit, known for his high passing volume and defensive contribution.
Serie A 26/27High passing volume and defensive contribution
Analysis
AS Roma have won 13 of their 20 meetings against Genoa, underlining their historical edge. Their attacking prowess is evident, averaging 2.33 goals per game and particularly potent at home with 2.67 goals per match. Genoa's defence, conceding 2 goals per game and having lost 4 of their last 6 matches, looks vulnerable. Despite Genoa's key attackers like Milutin Osmajić and Donyell Malen showing form with multiple goals recently, Roma's overall strength and home advantage are likely to prevail. Roma's midfield may miss Bryan Cristante, who is doubtful, but their offensive momentum remains strong.
Key facts
- 1.AS Roma have won 13 of 20 head-to-head matches against Genoa.
- 2.AS Roma rank 2nd in the league with 13 points from 5 games.
- 3.Genoa are 16th with 4 points from 6 games.
- 4.AS Roma have a +11 goal difference; Genoa have -6.
- 5.Roma average 2.33 goals per game, with 2.67 at home.
- 6.Genoa concede 2 goals per game on average.
- 7.Roma have scored in their last 3 home games, keeping 1 clean sheet.
- 8.Bryan Cristante is doubtful for Roma, potentially impacting midfield.
Prediction
Expect Roma to take control early, leading 2-0 at halftime and cruising to a 4-0 full-time victory. The predicted four goals reflect Roma's attacking dominance and Genoa's defensive frailties, with a total of four cards anticipated in a competitive but controlled match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — AS Roma
Away — Genoa
The verdict
This match looks set to reinforce AS Roma's position near the top of the table, while Genoa will need to regroup after a tough outing. Roma's clinical finishing and solid defence should secure a comfortable win.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Soulé
Yellow Card
Castro
Vásquez
Yellow Card
Mora
Koulierakis
Østigård
Yellow Card
El Shaarawy
Lulli
Pisilli
Yellow Card
Lulli
Ellertsson
Yellow Card
Junior Messias
Frendrup
Rensch
Pisilli
Match Statistics
AS Roma
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 2D. RenschM
- 3K. KoulierakisD
- 5E. NdickaD
- 9S. CastroF
- 15M. de RoonM
- 18M. SouléM
- 26L. BalerdiD
- 61N. PisilliM
- 77E. LulliM
- 86Rodrigo MoraM
- 95P. GolliniG
Substitutes
- 7L. PellegriniM
- 20N. MolinaD
- 22HermosoD
- 23G. ManciniD
- 32D. VásquezG
- 43WesleyD
- 68A. ArenaF
- 70G. De MarziG
- 87D. GhilardiD
Genoa
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1J. BijlowG
- 5L. ØstigårdD
- 10Junior MessiasM
- 18M. OsmajićF
- 22J. VásquezD
- 27A. MarcandalliD
- 31D. PuczkaM
- 32M. FrendrupM
- 71S. WiafeM
- 77M. EllertssonM
- 92S. El ShaarawyM
Substitutes
- 2M. MitajD
- 4Alexsandro AmorimM
- 8T. BaldanziM
- 9VítinhaF
- 16C. DramehD
- 20S. SabelliD
- 21Nikita SolodchenkoF
- 25H. TraorèM
- 34S. OtoaD
- 39D. SommarivaG
- 85M. VazD
- 99F. StolzG
AS Roma
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Castro | F | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| L. Balerdi | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| E. Ndicka | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Lulli | M | 78 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Hermoso | D | 27 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| D. Ghilardi | D | 2 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| K. Koulierakis | D | 63 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Soulé | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3/5 |
| L. Pellegrini | M | 27 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Wesley | D | 12 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Gollini | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Pisilli | M | 88 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| D. Rensch | M | 88 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Rodrigo Mora | M | 63 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| M. de Roon | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Molina | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Mancini | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Vásquez | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. De Marzi | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Arena | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Genoa
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Osmajić | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Marcandalli | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| S. El Shaarawy | M | 65 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/3 |
| Junior Messias | M | 83 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Vítinha | F | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Wiafe | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| J. Vásquez | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Alexsandro Amorim | M | 7 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikita Solodchenko | F | 7 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ellertsson | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Frendrup | M | 83 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Bijlow | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Puczka | M | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| L. Østigård | D | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Stolz | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Baldanzi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Otoa | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Vaz | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Drameh | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Sommariva | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Sabelli | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Traorè | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Mitaj | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win AS Roma vs Genoa?
- Fipster's AI model predicted AS Roma to win against Genoa.
- What score did Fipster predict for AS Roma vs Genoa?
- Fipster predicted a final score of AS Roma 4–0 Genoa.
- What were the win probabilities for AS Roma vs Genoa?
- Fipster's model gave AS Roma a 89% chance of winning, Genoa a 5% chance, and a 6% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 89% confidence — a high-confidence call.