AS Roma vs Cagliari
Roma's firepower outguns Cagliari
A six-goal spectacle sees Roma secure a confident home victory.
AS Roma overcame an early penalty from M'Bala Nzola to take control with quickfire goals from E. Lulli and N. Pisilli in the first half. Despite a late reply from D. Maldini, Roma sealed the win with goals from Rodrigo Mora and D. Malen in the closing minutes. Fipster's high-confidence prediction for a Roma win was spot on, though the actual scoreline was more eventful than the expected 3-0.
Outcome probability
AS Roma, also known as I Giallorossi, face off against Cagliari in the ninth round of the regular season. With Roma's strong form and superior stats, this match promises a clear home advantage.
Match factors
Roma missing key attacker P. Dybala
Dybala is confirmed out with calf injury, reducing Roma's attacking options and goal threat
Roma's superior passing and defensive metrics
Roma defenders and midfielders show passing accuracy and defensive stats well above league averages, aiding control and defense
Cagliari's defensive midfielders key to disrupting Roma
Romano and Obert lead Cagliari's tackling and interceptions, crucial to counter Roma's strong midfield passing
Roma's strong home form and scoring streak
Roma have scored in last 4 home games and maintain a 71% win rate, supporting predicted 3-0 home win
Cagliari's scoring struggles limit their threat
Cagliari average 0.75 goals per game with 37.5% failed to score rate, unlikely to challenge Roma's defense effectively
The context
Roma currently sit third in the league with 17 points from 7 games, while Cagliari are eighth with 13 points from 8 matches. Historically, Roma have dominated this fixture, winning 14 of their 20 meetings against Cagliari.
Key insights
- M
Mario Hermoso
AS Roma
Hermoso's passing accuracy of 87% and duel win rate of 62% make him a key figure in Roma's defence and build-up play.
Serie A 26/27Passing accuracy 87%, duel win rate ~62%
- B
Bryan Cristante
AS Roma
Cristante's high passing volume and defensive work rate help Roma control midfield and stifle Cagliari's attacks.
Serie A 26/2768.4 average passes per game, 2.6 tackles per game
- A
Alessandro Romano
Cagliari
Romano leads Cagliari's tackling with 2.57 tackles per game, crucial for disrupting Roma's rhythm.
Serie A 26/272.57 tackles per game, 61% duel win rate
- A
Adam Obert
Cagliari
Obert's defensive contributions, including interceptions and tackles, are vital for Cagliari's resistance against Roma's attack.
Serie A 26/272.57 tackles per game, 10 interceptions total
Analysis
Roma's goal difference of +13 starkly contrasts with Cagliari's -3, highlighting their stronger offense and defense. Roma's midfield and defense boast impressive passing accuracy and duel success rates, which should help control the game. Despite missing key attacker Paulo Dybala due to a calf injury, Roma's attacking options remain potent. Cagliari's defensive midfielders, Romano and Obert, are crucial in disrupting play but face a tough challenge against Roma's fluid passing. Cagliari's scoring struggles, averaging just 0.75 goals per game, limit their threat against a solid Roma defence.
Key facts
- 1.AS Roma have won 14 of 20 meetings against Cagliari.
- 2.Roma are 3rd in the league with 17 points from 7 games.
- 3.Cagliari are 8th with 13 points from 8 games.
- 4.Roma's goal difference (+13) is significantly better than Cagliari's (-3).
- 5.Roma have scored in their last 4 home games.
- 6.Cagliari average only 0.75 goals per game this season.
- 7.Paulo Dybala is out with a calf injury, reducing Roma's attacking options.
- 8.Roma defenders and midfielders show passing accuracy well above league averages.
Prediction
We expect Roma to take a narrow 1-0 lead into halftime and then extend their advantage to a 3-0 victory by fulltime. The home side's consistent scoring streak and strong defensive record underpin this prediction.
The verdict
In summary, Roma's superior form, tactical edge, and historical dominance make them the clear favourites to secure a comfortable 3-0 win over Cagliari in this fixture.
Prediction generated 24 Oct 2026, 17:56 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Penalty confirmed
M'Bala Nzola
Penalty
Lulli
Assist: Molina
Pisilli
Assist: Lulli
Molina
Castro
de Roon
M'Bala Nzola
Lulli
Fadera
Deiola
Maldini
Assist: Obert
Mancini
Mora
Assist: Ghilardi
Malen
Adopo
Sugawara
Rodríguez
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
AS Roma
3-5-2Starting XI
- 3K. KoulierakisD
- 4B. CristanteM
- 5E. NdickaD
- 9S. CastroF
- 15M. de RoonM
- 18M. SouléF
- 20N. MolinaM
- 23G. ManciniD
- 61N. PisilliM
- 77E. LulliM
- 95P. GolliniG
Substitutes
- 2D. RenschD
- 14D. MalenF
- 22HermosoD
- 26L. BalerdiD
- 32D. VásquezG
- 43WesleyD
- 70G. De MarziG
- 86Rodrigo MoraM
- 87D. GhilardiD
Cagliari
3-5-1-1Starting XI
- 1E. CaprileG
- 2Zé PedroD
- 4A. RomanoM
- 8M. AdopoM
- 14A. DeiolaM
- 15J. RodríguezD
- 18M'Bala NzolaF
- 26Y. MinaD
- 28Y. SugawaraM
- 33A. ObertM
- 39A. FaderaM
Substitutes
- 9Kevin CarlosF
- 10J. FazziniM
- 12A. SherriG
- 19Y. TrepyF
- 20R. CiervoF
- 21R. GagliardiniM
- 22R. KoflerD
- 23B. RadunovićG
- 24G. AurelioD
- 27J. LitetaM
- 31P. MendyF
- 32Ivan Stoyanov SulevM
- 70D. MaldiniF
- 79Y. MassolinM
AS Roma
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Mora | M | 34 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1/3 |
| P. Gollini | G | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Lulli | M | 76 | 7.8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/2 |
| N. Pisilli | M | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| D. Malen | F | 34 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | — |
| N. Molina | M | 46 | 7.1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| M. Soulé | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4/4 |
| M. de Roon | M | 56 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Cristante | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| K. Koulierakis | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| E. Ndicka | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Castro | F | 56 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Wesley | D | 44 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| D. Ghilardi | D | 8 | 6.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| G. Mancini | D | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| D. Rensch | D | 14 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Vásquez | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. De Marzi | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Balerdi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hermoso | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Cagliari
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Maldini | F | 14 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| A. Obert | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | 1 | — | — | 6 | 1/1 |
| M'Bala Nzola | F | 63 | 6.8 | 1 | — | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Rodríguez | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Romano | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| P. Mendy | F | 27 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Adopo | M | 91 | 6.4 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0/1 |
| A. Fadera | M | 76 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| A. Deiola | M | 76 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Y. Mina | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Sugawara | M | 91 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| E. Caprile | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Pedro | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Liteta | M | 14 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Trepy | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| R. Kofler | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ivan Stoyanov Sulev | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Fazzini | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Massolin | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| R. Ciervo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Aurelio | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Carlos | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Radunović | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Gagliardini | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Sherri | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win AS Roma vs Cagliari?
- Fipster's AI model predicted AS Roma to win against Cagliari.
- What score did Fipster predict for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
- Fipster predicted a final score of AS Roma 3–0 Cagliari.
- What were the win probabilities for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
- Fipster's model gave AS Roma a 95% chance of winning, Cagliari a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.