AS Roma vs Atalanta
Roma rally past Atalanta in stoppage-time thriller
A late brace from Hermoso and Soulé seals a dramatic comeback for the home side.
Atalanta struck first just after the break through Éderson, putting Roma on the back foot. However, the hosts staged a stirring late fightback with Hermoso equalising in the 89th minute before Soulé clinched the winner deep into stoppage time. Fipster's prediction of a Roma win was on the money, though the drama of the late turnaround added far more spice than the modest 1-0 forecast suggested.
Outcome probability
The new Serie A season kicks off with AS Roma facing Atalanta in what promises to be a tactical battle. Both sides have refreshed their squads over the summer, setting the stage for an intriguing encounter as the campaign begins.
Key facts
- 1.AS Roma have signed K. Koulierakis and S. Castro ahead of the new season.
- 2.Atalanta have brought in T. Kristensen on loan, F. Kessié on a free transfer, and G. Gaetano.
- 3.AS Roma have loaned out A. Dovbyk and T. Baldanzi and released Z. Çelik.
- 4.Atalanta have transferred out B. Djimsiti.
- 5.The highest probability outcome is a home win for AS Roma.
- 6.The most likely fulltime score is 1-0 in favour of AS Roma.
- 7.The predicted halftime score is also 1-0, consistent with the fulltime prediction.
- 8.Four cards are expected in the match, indicating a competitive encounter.
The context
AS Roma have strengthened their ranks with the arrivals of K. Koulierakis and S. Castro, while loaning out A. Dovbyk and T. Baldanzi and releasing Z. Çelik. Atalanta, meanwhile, have welcomed T. Kristensen on loan, signed F. Kessié on a free transfer, and added G. Gaetano, but have parted ways with B. Djimsiti through a transfer. These changes will shape how both teams approach this season opener.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — AS Roma
Away — Atalanta
Analysis
Looking at the probabilities, a home win is the most likely outcome with a 54% chance when combining all home win scorelines. The 1-0 scoreline stands out as the most probable result, reflecting a match where Roma's defence and attack edge out Atalanta's efforts. The predicted halftime score of 1-0 aligns with this, suggesting Roma may take an early lead and hold on. The expected four cards indicate a competitive but controlled game.
Prediction
We anticipate AS Roma to clinch a narrow 1-0 victory over Atalanta. The Giallorossi's summer reinforcements should help them maintain a solid defensive shape while capitalising on key chances. Atalanta will pose a threat but may struggle to break down Roma's organised backline.
The verdict
This season opener sets the tone for both sides, with Roma looking to build momentum from a hard-fought win. Atalanta will be eager to respond in their next fixtures, but for now, the advantage lies with the home side in what should be a closely contested match.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Yellow Card
Scamacca
Éderson
Lulli
Mora
Yellow Card
Mancini
Malen
Samardžić
Elmas
Ndicka
Kolašinac
Éderson
Bellanova
Yellow Card
Hermoso
Assist: Soulé
Soulé
Assist: Dybala
Match Statistics
AS Roma
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 4B. CristanteM
- 5E. NdickaD
- 14D. MalenF
- 17M. KonéM
- 21P. DybalaF
- 22HermosoD
- 23G. ManciniD
- 43WesleyM
- 77E. LulliM
- 86Rodrigo MoraM
- 99M. SvilarG
Substitutes
- 2D. RenschD
- 3K. KoulierakisD
- 9S. CastroF
- 15M. de RoonM
- 18M. SouléF
- 20N. MolinaD
- 26L. BalerdiD
- 61N. PisilliM
- 68A. ArenaF
- 70G. De MarziG
- 87D. GhilardiD
- 95P. GolliniG
Atalanta
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3O. KossounouD
- 9G. ScamaccaF
- 10L. SamardžićM
- 13ÉdersonM
- 16R. BellanovaD
- 17C. De KetelaereF
- 23S. KolašinacD
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 42G. ScalviniD
- 70G. GaetanoM
- 99E. ElmasF
Substitutes
- 8Mario PasalicM
- 11J. RoweF
- 18G. RaspadoriF
- 19F. KessiéM
- 31T. KristensenD
- 40R. ObriÄD
- 47L. BernasconiD
- 57M. SportielloG
- 59N. ZalewskiM
- 77D. ZappacostaD
- 90N. KrstovićF
AS Roma
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Soulé | F | 36 | 8.4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0/2 |
| Hermoso | D | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 4 | — |
| P. Dybala | F | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 0/1 |
| N. Molina | D | 36 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 5 | 1/1 |
| D. Ghilardi | D | 28 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Wesley | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 9 | 0/1 |
| B. Cristante | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| E. Lulli | M | 54 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. Koné | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 2 | — |
| E. Ndicka | D | 67 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Mora | M | 54 | 6.9 | — | — | 6 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| G. Mancini | D | 62 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| D. Malen | F | 63 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3/4 |
| M. Svilar | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Castro | F | 27 | 6.6 | — | — | 4 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| L. Balerdi | D | 23 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Rensch | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Pisilli | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Koulierakis | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. De Marzi | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Arena | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. de Roon | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Gollini | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Atalanta
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Carnesecchi | G | 90 | 8.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Éderson | M | 79 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| G. Scalvini | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Kossounou | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Kolašinac | D | 73 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Bellanova | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| G. Scamacca | F | 46 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| L. Samardžić | M | 66 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| G. Gaetano | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| D. Zappacosta | D | 17 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| E. Elmas | F | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. De Ketelaere | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/3 |
| F. Kessié | M | 11 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mario Pasalic | M | 24 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| N. Krstović | F | 44 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| N. Zalewski | M | 24 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. ObriÄ | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Raspadori | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Sportiello | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Bernasconi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Rowe | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Kristensen | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win AS Roma vs Atalanta?
- Fipster's AI model predicted AS Roma to win against Atalanta.
- What score did Fipster predict for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
- Fipster predicted a final score of AS Roma 1–0 Atalanta.
- What were the win probabilities for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
- Fipster's model gave AS Roma a 52% chance of winning, Atalanta a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 52% confidence — a medium-confidence call.