Arsenal vs Burnley
Match recap
Arsenal beat Burnley 1–0 in their Premier League fixture. Havertz scored for Arsenal. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.03 for Arsenal versus 0.21 for Burnley. Arsenal sit 1st in the Premier League table while Burnley are 19th.
Analysis
As the Premier League season nears its climax, Arsenal host Burnley in a match where the Gunners are overwhelming favourites. With Arsenal's commanding league position and Burnley's struggles, this promises to be a straightforward affair for the home side.
Arsenal sit comfortably at the top of the table with 79 points, while Burnley languish near the relegation zone with just 21 points. Historically, Arsenal have dominated this fixture, winning 14 of the last 18 encounters. Burnley's defensive frailties and disciplinary concerns add to their woes ahead of this clash.
Arsenal's attacking threat remains potent despite injuries to key players like Gyökeres and Saka. Midfield maestros like Martín Zubimendi provide defensive solidity and control, while the home scoring form of Arsenal (2.2 goals per game) dwarfs Burnley's away average (1.1). Burnley's disciplinary risk, particularly with Walker's high yellow card count, may further hamper their defensive efforts.
Prediction
We predict Arsenal to lead 1-0 at halftime and extend their dominance to a 3-0 fulltime victory. The total cards are expected to reach around four, reflecting Burnley's aggressive but ultimately ineffective resistance. Confidence in this outcome is very high at 95%.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Arsenal's key attackers injured
Top scorer Gyökeres and winger Saka are injured, potentially reducing Arsenal's attacking firepower despite predicted win.
Midfield dominance by Arsenal
Zubimendi and Rice provide strong defensive midfield presence, likely to control Burnley's attack and transition.
Superior home scoring form for Arsenal
Arsenal averages 2.2 goals at home vs Burnley's 1.1 away, supporting predicted 3-0 home win.
Burnley's poor defensive form
Burnley conceded in last 5 matches consistently, vulnerable to Arsenal's attack.
Burnley's disciplinary risk with Walker
High yellow card rate for Walker may limit defensive aggression against Arsenal's attackers.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Arsenal's superior quality, home advantage, and Burnley's ongoing struggles make a convincing 3-0 win the most likely scenario. Fans can expect a controlled performance from the Gunners, securing three points with a clean sheet to boot.
- Arsenal have won 14 of the last 18 matches against Burnley.
- Arsenal lead the league with 79 points; Burnley are 19th with 21 points.
- Arsenal average 2.2 goals per home game compared to Burnley's 1.1 away.
- Burnley have conceded in their last five matches, showing defensive vulnerability.
- Walker of Burnley has a high yellow card rate, risking suspensions or cautious play.
- The predicted halftime score is 1-0, consistent with the fulltime 3-0 outcome.
- Total cards expected in the match are around four, indicating moderate discipline issues.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Arsenal
Away — Burnley
No standout top scorers flagged for Burnley
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Mejbri
Yellow Card
Havertz
Assist: Saka
Havertz
Yellow Card
Mejbri
Ugochukwu
Calafiori
Havertz
Eze
Florentino
Tchaouna
Estève
Flemming
Yellow Card
Ødegaard
Trossard
Pires
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | +44 | 85 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | +42 | 78 |
| 18 |  West Ham | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | -19 | 39 |
| 19 |  Burnley | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | -37 | 22 |
| 20 |  Wolves | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | -41 | 20 |
Match Statistics
Arsenal
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1David RayaG
- 2W. SalibaD
- 3Cristhian MosqueraD
- 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
- 7B. SakaF
- 8M. ØdegaardM
- 10E. EzeM
- 19L. TrossardF
- 29K. HavertzF
- 33R. CalafioriD
- 41D. RiceM
Substitutes
- 5P. HincapiéD
- 9Gabriel JesusF
- 11Gabriel MartinelliF
- 13KepaG
- 14V. GyökeresF
- 20N. MaduekeF
- 36Martín ZubimendiM
- 49M. Lewis-SkellyD
- 56M. DowmanM
Burnley
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2K. WalkerD
- 5M. EstèveD
- 6A. TuanzebeD
- 8L. UgochukwuM
- 11J. AnthonyM
- 13M. WeißG
- 16FlorentinoM
- 17L. TchaounaM
- 19Z. FlemmingF
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 28H. MejbriM
Substitutes
- 1M. DúbravkaG
- 3Q. HartmanD
- 4J. WorrallD
- 7J. Bruun LarsenF
- 10M. EdwardsF
- 12B. HumphreysD
- 20J. Ward-ProwseM
- 25Z. AmdouniF
- 29J. LaurentM
Arsenal
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Rice | M | 90 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riccardo Calafiori | D | 72 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Bukayo Saka | F | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Kai Havertz | F | 73 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Leandro Trossard | F | 89 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Martin Ødegaard(C) | M | 89 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| William Saliba | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cristhian Mosquera | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| David Raya | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eberechi Eze | M | 73 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Gabriel Jesus | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kepa Arrizabalaga | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martín Zubimendi | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Martinelli | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Noni Madueke | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Dowman | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Viktor Gyökeres | F | 17 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Piero Hincapié | D | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly | D | 17 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Burnley
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lesley Ugochukwu | M | 71 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Weiss | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maxime Estève | D | 82 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Florentino Luís | M | 78 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Pires | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Zian Flemming | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kyle Walker(C) | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Axel Tuanzebe | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Loum Tchaouna | M | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Jaidon Anthony | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/6 |
| Hannibal Mejbri | M | 70 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Joe Worrall | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Dúbravka | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcus Edwards | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Quilindschy Hartman | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| James Ward-Prowse | M | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zeki Amdouni | F | 20 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Laurent | M | 19 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Bashir Humphreys | D | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen | F | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |