Arouca vs Maritimo
Arouca edge past Maritimo in tight tussle
Arouca come from behind to claim a narrow 2-1 victory at home.
Maritimo took an early lead through Martín Tejón's strike in the 27th minute, but Arouca responded just before the break with E. van Ee's equaliser. After the interval, Barbero secured the winner for Arouca in the 55th minute, sealing a hard-fought victory. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the actual scoreline was a bit more eventful than the anticipated 1-0.
Outcome probability
The new season kicks off with Arouca facing Maritimo in what promises to be a closely contested encounter. Both teams are eager to make a strong start, with Arouca looking to leverage their experience in the division against the newly promoted visitors.
Key facts
- 1.Arouca finished 8th in the Primeira Liga last season with 42 points from 34 games.
- 2.Maritimo are newly promoted to the Primeira Liga this season.
- 3.Maritimo have strengthened their squad with G. Szalai on loan and B. Limbombe on a permanent transfer.
- 4.Arouca had a points-per-game average of 1.24 last season, higher than Maritimo's 0.00 in the top flight.
- 5.The predicted final score is 1-0 in favour of Arouca.
- 6.The halftime score is also predicted to be 1-0, indicating an early goal and tight game.
- 7.Arouca's home win probability is over 70%, making them strong favourites.
The context
Arouca finished last season in 8th place in the Primeira Liga, accumulating 42 points from 34 games. Maritimo, on the other hand, are newly promoted and stepping up to this level for the first time this campaign. The visitors have bolstered their squad with the arrivals of G. Szalai on loan and B. Limbombe on a permanent transfer, aiming to make an impact in their return to the top flight.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Arouca
Away — Maritimo
Analysis
Despite Maritimo's reinforcements, Arouca's points-per-game advantage from last season suggests they hold the upper hand. The home side's ability to grind out results and maintain defensive solidity is expected to be key. The prediction of a 1-0 halftime and fulltime scoreline reflects a tight match where Arouca's experience and tactical discipline could see them edge out the newcomers.
Prediction
We anticipate Arouca to take an early lead and hold on to it, securing a 1-0 victory. The match is likely to be competitive, with a moderate number of cards expected, but ultimately the home side's steadiness should prevail.
The verdict
As the season gets underway, Arouca look poised to start on a positive note against Maritimo. The visitors will be eager to prove their worth, but the home side's familiarity with the league and solid form from last season give them the edge in this opener.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Tejón
van Ee
Assist: Trezza
Raphael Guzzo
Yellow Card
Barbero
Assist: Gozálbez
Limbombe
Trezza
Barbero
Nandín
Yellow Card
Danilović
Butzke
Gozálbez
van Ee
Djouahra
Fernandes
Javi Sánchez
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +13 | 18 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 |  SC Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 |  Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
Match Statistics
Arouca
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3José FontánD
- 6E. van EeM
- 7N. DjouahraM
- 8T. FukuiM
- 10Pablo GozálbezM
- 12I. de ArruabarrenaG
- 15Javi SánchezD
- 17BarberoF
- 18O. LebedenkoD
- 19A. TrezzaM
- 28Tiago EsgaioD
Substitutes
- 1J. VinarčíkG
- 4Diogo MonteiroD
- 5B. PopovićD
- 9F. MayuluF
- 14Lee Hyun-JuM
- 21Mateo FloresM
- 23D. NandínF
- 24B. MansillaF
- 37Mario ClimentD
- 71M. DuarteG
- 77S. ParkF
- 89Pedro SantosM
Maritimo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2Igor JuliãoD
- 4Rafael FernandesD
- 6Rodrigo AndradeM
- 10Martín TejónM
- 13Alfonso PastorG
- 14Raphael GuzzoM
- 17Adrián ButzkeF
- 18V. DanilovićM
- 23Paulo HenriqueD
- 35B. LimbombeM
- 44Romain CorreiaD
Substitutes
- 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
- 16F. SilvaM
- 21I. AlaniM
- 22G. SzalaiD
- 27S. BambaF
- 30Fran VieitesG
- 66I. AyumaM
- 68N. BatistaM
- 90Maurice Osei BoakyeF
Arouca
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. van Ee | M | 79 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Barbero | F | 70 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Pablo Gozálbez | M | 79 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | — |
| A. Trezza | M | 70 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| I. de Arruabarrena | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| B. Mansilla | F | 20 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| José Fontán | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javi Sánchez | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| T. Fukui | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| D. Nandín | F | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| N. Djouahra | M | 87 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| Mateo Flores | M | 11 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Tiago Esgaio | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| O. Lebedenko | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Pedro Santos | M | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mario Climent | D | 3 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Mayulu | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogo Monteiro | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lee Hyun-Ju | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Vinarčík | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Park | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Popović | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Duarte | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Maritimo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martín Tejón | M | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| Alfonso Pastor | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Romain Correia | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Rafael Fernandes | D | 87 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Adrián Butzke | F | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| S. Bamba | F | 28 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Maurice Osei Boakye | F | 12 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Danilović | M | 78 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Andrade | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| I. Ayuma | M | 12 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| B. Limbombe | M | 62 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Raphael Guzzo | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Igor Julião | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| I. Alani | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Szalai | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonçalo Tabuaço | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fran Vieites | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Silva | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Batista | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Arouca vs Maritimo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Arouca to win against Maritimo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Arouca vs Maritimo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Arouca 1–0 Maritimo.
- What were the win probabilities for Arouca vs Maritimo?
- Fipster's model gave Arouca a 85% chance of winning, Maritimo a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.