Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar cruise past Ararat-Armenia
A commanding 4-0 victory with Patati starring for the Dutch side.
AZ Alkmaar delivered a dominant performance away at Ararat-Armenia, cruising to a 4-0 win in the UEFA Europa League. Weslley Patati was the standout, netting twice including a crucial second-half strike, while V. Byskov and M. Meerdink also found the net. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a narrow home win, proving the Dutch visitors were far too strong on the night.
Outcome probability
This Group Stage encounter between Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar promises a competitive fixture with both sides eager to make their mark early in the competition.
Match factors
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have no confirmed absences, so full squads available for selection.
Ararat-Armenia positive scoring streak
Ararat-Armenia have scored in their last 2 matches and kept a clean sheet at home recently, indicating good attacking and defensive form.
Low data availability limits player-specific predictions
No top scorers or assisters data available for either team, restricting individual player impact analysis.
The context
Ararat-Armenia have played two matches in this competition so far, securing one win and one draw, scoring twice and conceding once. Their recent home victory in the Play-offs against Universitatea Craiova (1-0) highlights their capability to perform under pressure. AZ Alkmaar, meanwhile, come into this match without any confirmed injuries but with limited data on their recent form in this competition.
Key facts
- 1.Ararat-Armenia have played 2 matches in this competition (W1 D1 L0, GF 2 / GA 1).
- 2.Ararat-Armenia won their recent Play-offs home match 1-0 against Universitatea Craiova.
- 3.Draw probability in this fixture is about 23%, with 1-1 as the most likely draw scoreline.
- 4.No confirmed injuries for either team; full squads available.
- 5.Ararat-Armenia have scored in their last 2 matches and kept a clean sheet at home recently.
- 6.Aggregate probabilities favour a home win at 42%, compared to 23% for a draw and 19% for an away win.
- 7.The most probable fulltime scoreline is 2-1 in favour of Ararat-Armenia.
Analysis
The aggregate probabilities favour a home win for Ararat-Armenia, with a 42% likelihood compared to 23% for a draw and 19% for an away win. The most probable fulltime scoreline is 2-1 in favour of Ararat-Armenia, narrowly edging out the 1-1 draw. Ararat-Armenia have shown positive momentum, scoring in their last two matches and keeping a clean sheet at home recently, suggesting a balanced attacking and defensive performance. Both teams have full squads available, so it will come down to tactical execution and seizing key moments.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Ararat-Armenia
Away — AZ Alkmaar
Prediction
We predict Ararat-Armenia to secure a 2-1 victory over AZ Alkmaar. While the confidence in this call is cautious due to limited data, the home side's recent form and statistical edge make them the most likely winners in this encounter.
The verdict
Expect a closely fought match with Ararat-Armenia just shading it 2-1. Both teams have the players available to make an impact, but the home side's recent scoring streak and defensive solidity could prove decisive.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Byskov
Bruno Wilson
Yellow Card
Patati
Assist: Maikuma
Ambartsumyan
Yellow Card
Oufkir
Ambartsumyan
Maikuma
Kovacs
Grigoryan
Sandro Lima
Balanta
Shaghoyan
Patati
Assist: Daal
Meerdink
Assist: Patati
Byskov
Hoedt
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 30 |  AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 |  Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 35 |  AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Match Statistics
Ararat-Armenia
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2Hugo OliveiraD
- 7Z. ShaghoyanM
- 8J. BalantaM
- 10A. AmbartsumyanM
- 16E. GrigoryanD
- 17M. CarlierM
- 43Bruno WilsonD
- 47A. MalisD
- 77A. SerobyanM
- 91Sandro LimaF
- 98João BravimG
Substitutes
- 1A. NersesyanG
- 5Luís FelipeD
- 9A. EloyanM
- 14Bruno PereiraD
- 19K. MuradyanM
- 25A. NdourF
- 70B. OliveiraM
- 95FrançaF
AZ Alkmaar
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2S. MaikumaD
- 4L. SchoutenD
- 6P. KoopmeinersM
- 7Weslley PatatiF
- 17V. ByskovM
- 18B. KovacsF
- 21D. KwakmanM
- 24A. OufkirF
- 28J. De BusserG
- 29W. HoedtD
- 34M. de WitD
Substitutes
- 1R. Owusu-OduroG
- 5M. ChávezD
- 9M. MeerdinkF
- 11R. DaalF
- 12H. VerhulstG
- 14C. StengsM
- 22E. DijkstraD
- 30D. KasiusD
- 31R. IchiharaD
- 75H. de WitM
Ararat-Armenia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Balanta | M | 73 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Carlier | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Malis | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| João Bravim | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| França | F | 17 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Z. Shaghoyan | M | 73 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Sandro Lima | F | 73 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Oliveira | M | 17 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Bruno Pereira | D | 17 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| K. Muradyan | M | 33 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Ambartsumyan | M | 57 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo Oliveira | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| A. Eloyan | M | 17 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Wilson | D | 90 | 5.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Serobyan | M | 90 | 5.2 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| E. Grigoryan | D | 73 | 4.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| A. Nersesyan | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luís Felipe | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Ndour | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
AZ Alkmaar
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weslley Patati | F | 90 | 9.3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4/7 |
| V. Byskov | M | 80 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| M. de Wit | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| W. Hoedt | D | 80 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Daal | F | 44 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1/1 |
| J. De Busser | G | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Schouten | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| S. Maikuma | D | 65 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. Meerdink | F | 25 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| D. Kwakman | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| D. Kasius | D | 25 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| R. Ichihara | D | 10 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Koopmeiners | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| H. de Wit | M | 10 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Oufkir | F | 46 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| B. Kovacs | F | 65 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/2 |
| R. Owusu-Oduro | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Dijkstra | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Verhulst | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Chávez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Stengs | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Ararat-Armenia to win against AZ Alkmaar.
- What score did Fipster predict for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Ararat-Armenia 2–1 AZ Alkmaar.
- What were the win probabilities for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
- Fipster's model gave Ararat-Armenia a 35% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.