Alverca vs Rio Ave
Alverca nicks narrow win over Rio Ave
D. Camara's early strike secures all three points for the hosts.
Alverca edged out Rio Ave 1-0 thanks to a decisive goal from D. Camara just three minutes in. The early breakthrough set the tone for a tight contest that the home side managed to hold onto. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the exact scoreline proved a bit more modest than expected.
Outcome probability
Alverca and Rio Ave face off in what promises to be a closely contested regular season match. Both teams have had mixed fortunes so far, but recent form and league standings suggest a slight edge for Alverca.
Match factors
Alverca's home scoring streak supports predicted win
Alverca has scored in all last 5 games at home, showing strong attacking momentum
Vivaldo Semedo's strong home scoring form
Semedo has 2 goals in last 3 home games, above league average for attackers
D. Camara's impactful away scoring
Camara scored 2 goals in 2 away appearances, showing sharp form on the road
Diogo Spencer's creative threat from defense
Spencer has 2 assists in 2 away games, providing key chances from wide defensive position
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, no confirmed absences to affect lineups
The context
This fixture sees Alverca, currently 11th with 5 points, take on Rio Ave, who sit 16th with 3 points. Their head-to-head record is balanced with one win each and two draws from four meetings, averaging 2.5 goals per match. Alverca's superior goal difference of +6 compared to Rio Ave's less flattering tally adds an extra layer of intrigue.
Key insights
Vivaldo Semedo
Alverca
Semedo’s strong home scoring form makes him a key threat, with 2 goals in his last 3 home games.
Primeira Liga 26/272 goals in 6 games, 0.67 avg per home game
Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
Rio Ave
Spencer’s creativity from defence is exceptional, providing 2 assists in 2 away games.
Primeira Liga 26/272 assists in 2 games, 1.0 avg per away game
D. Camara
Rio Ave
Camara’s sharp away scoring form with 2 goals in 2 away appearances makes him a danger man on the road.
Primeira Liga 26/272 goals in 2 appearances, 1.0 avg per away game
Analysis
Alverca's home scoring streak is impressive, having found the net in all of their last five home games. Vivaldo Semedo stands out with two goals in his last three home appearances, making him a key attacking threat. Rio Ave's D. Camara has shown sharp away form, scoring twice in two away games, but overall Rio Ave's struggles on the road and weaker goal difference suggest they may find it tough to keep up. Defensively, Alverca's ability to maintain a lead at halftime, predicted here as 1-0, could be crucial in securing the win.
Key facts
- 1.Alverca and Rio Ave have met 4 times: 1 win each and 2 draws.
- 2.Their head-to-head matches average 2.5 goals per game.
- 3.Alverca currently sit 11th in the league with 5 points from 6 games.
- 4.Rio Ave are 16th with 3 points from 5 games.
- 5.Alverca have a superior goal difference of +6 compared to Rio Ave.
- 6.Alverca have scored in all of their last 5 home games.
- 7.Vivaldo Semedo has scored 2 goals in his last 3 home games.
- 8.D. Camara has scored 2 goals in 2 away games this season.
Prediction
The forecast is a 2-1 victory for Alverca, with a halftime lead of 1-0. The home side's attacking momentum and better goal difference underpin this call. Expect Vivaldo Semedo to be influential, supported by creative outlets like Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques from defence. Rio Ave will fight hard, but Alverca's consistency at home should see them through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Alverca
Away — Rio Ave
The verdict
In summary, Alverca's home advantage and recent scoring form make them favourites to claim a narrow win over Rio Ave. While the away side has its moments, the balance of form and statistics points to a 2-1 result in favour of Alverca.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Camara
Assist: Chiquinho
Galčík
Pedro Amaral
Figueiredo
Camara
João Tomé
Patricio
Nikitscher
Chiquinho
Rayan
Chissumba
Garcia
Yellow Card
Gui
Yellow Card
André Vidigal
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Alverca
3-4-3Starting XI
- 6D. GuiM
- 10ChiquinhoF
- 12I. JamesD
- 14S. BaseyaD
- 19D. CamaraF
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer MarquesM
- 21Sergi GómezD
- 22FigueiredoF
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 35RayanM
- 55Francisco ChissumbaM
Substitutes
- 4Y. BojangD
- 7André VidigalM
- 8Vasco MoreiraM
- 9Vivaldo SemedoF
- 11C. NuozziF
- 17S. MerhegF
- 18Z. KassaryM
- 26Matheus FrançaF
- 27Toni TamaritF
- 91JhonatanG
- 93Zé RafaelM
Rio Ave
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3S. GarciaD
- 5A. NtoiM
- 7Diogo BezerraM
- 11J. BlesaF
- 20João ToméD
- 23F. PetrassoD
- 24Pedro AmaralD
- 30R. GalčíkM
- 32Vitor HugoG
- 44T. NikitscherM
- 79M. PatricioM
Substitutes
- 9Tamble MonteiroF
- 17M. VrousaiF
- 19M. SelloukiM
- 21R. ŠilerF
- 22K. ChamorroG
- 27T. MedinaM
- 39Gustavo ManchaD
- 54G. LiavasM
- 60CaikeD
- 70A. WenckM
- 77D. ŠpikićF
- 80S. ClemmensenF
Alverca
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Camara | F | 68 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Chiquinho | F | 74 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1/2 |
| Sergi Gómez | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| I. James | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/5 |
| S. Baseya | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Matheus Mendes | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Gui | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| André Vidigal | M | 22 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Y. Bojang | D | 6 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Figueiredo | F | 68 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5/7 |
| Francisco Chissumba | M | 84 | 6.7 | — | — | 4 | — | 2 | — |
| Rayan | M | 84 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Zé Rafael | M | 6 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Vivaldo Semedo | F | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Matheus França | F | 16 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Z. Kassary | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jhonatan | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vasco Moreira | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Nuozzi | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Merheg | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Toni Tamarit | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rio Ave
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Hugo | G | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Vrousai | F | 31 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Tamble Monteiro | F | 21 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| M. Sellouki | M | 21 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Petrasso | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Tomé | D | 69 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Caike | D | 21 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Clemmensen | F | 31 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| A. Ntoi | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4/5 |
| S. Garcia | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Patricio | M | 69 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| J. Blesa | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| R. Galčík | M | 59 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| T. Nikitscher | M | 69 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Pedro Amaral | D | 59 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogo Bezerra | M | 90 | 5.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/7 |
| T. Medina | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Šiler | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Mancha | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Wenck | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Liavas | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Chamorro | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Špikić | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Alverca vs Rio Ave?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Alverca to win against Rio Ave.
- What score did Fipster predict for Alverca vs Rio Ave?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Alverca 2–1 Rio Ave.
- What were the win probabilities for Alverca vs Rio Ave?
- Fipster's model gave Alverca a 85% chance of winning, Rio Ave a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.