Alverca vs Arouca
Arouca sneak past Alverca
T. Fukui's first-half strike secures a narrow win away from home.
Arouca edged out Alverca 1-0 thanks to T. Fukui's 24th-minute goal, proving decisive in a tight contest. Despite Fipster's low-confidence prediction favouring an Alverca win, the visitors claimed all three points in a classic upset.
Outcome probability
This upcoming clash between Alverca and Arouca promises a tight contest, with both sides eager to climb the league standings. Expect a tactical battle where a single goal could decide the outcome.
Match factors
Alverca's attacking trio in good scoring form
Dawda Camara leads with 3 goals in 3 games, supported by Semedo and Chiquinho's recent contributions
Arouca's Näis Djouahra excels in assists
Djouahra has 5 assists this season, significantly above league average for midfielders
Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques provides creative threat from defense
His 3 assists in last 5 games and high passing accuracy give Alverca an edge in build-up
Alverca's positive scoring streak at home
Alverca has scored in their last 4 home games, showing attacking consistency
Defensive solidity from José Fontán for Arouca
Fontán's tackling and passing stats help stabilize Arouca's defense and contribute goals
The context
Alverca sit 10th with 8 points from 7 games, while Arouca are a bit higher in 5th place with 14 points from 8 matches. The two teams have met twice before this season, each winning once, so there's no clear dominance in their head-to-head record.
Key insights
- D
Dawda Camara Sankharé
Alverca
Top scorer with 3 goals in 3 games, showing strong home scoring form and high shot involvement.
Primeira Liga 26/273 goals in 3 appearances, 59 avg mins/game
Näis Djouahra
Arouca
Creative hub with 5 assists this season, significantly above league average for midfielders.
Primeira Liga 26/275 assists in 8 appearances, 83 avg mins/game
Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
Alverca
Exceptional assist rate for a defender with 3 assists in last 5 games, key in build-up play.
Primeira Liga 26/272 assists in 3 appearances, 83 avg mins/game
- J
José Fontán
Arouca
Provides defensive solidity with strong tackling and passing stats, also contributes goals.
Primeira Liga 26/272 goals this season, 1.5 tackles per game, 60.9% duel win rate
Analysis
Alverca's attacking trio, led by Dawda Camara Sankharé who boasts 3 goals in 3 games, have been in good scoring form, especially at home where they've scored in their last four matches. Meanwhile, Arouca's creative force Näis Djouahra has provided 5 assists this season, making him a key player to watch. Defensively, Arouca's José Fontán offers solidity with his tackling and passing stats. Alverca also benefit from the creative contributions of defender Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques, who has 3 assists in his last 5 games. The prediction leans towards a narrow home win, reflecting the close probabilities and limited match history between these sides.
Key facts
- 1.Alverca are 10th with 8 points from 7 games (W2 D2 L3).
- 2.Arouca are 5th with 14 points from 8 games (W4 D2 L2).
- 3.Arouca have a better goal difference (+4) than Alverca (-2).
- 4.In 2 head-to-head meetings, each team has won once with no draws.
- 5.Alverca have scored in their last 4 home games.
- 6.Dawda Camara Sankharé has 3 goals in 3 games this season.
- 7.Näis Djouahra leads Arouca with 5 assists this season.
- 8.Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques has 3 assists in his last 5 games.
Prediction
The forecast is for a 1-0 victory to Alverca. This scoreline is the most probable home win outcome, suggesting a tight game where a single goal could be enough to secure the points. Expect a disciplined defensive effort from both sides, with a total of around three cards likely to be shown.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Alverca
Away — Arouca
The verdict
In a fixture where margins are fine and form is closely matched, Alverca's home scoring consistency and key player contributions might just tip the scales. Fans should prepare for a closely fought encounter decided by a solitary goal.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:21 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Baseya
Red Card
Chissumba
José Fontán
Yellow Card
Fukui
Assist: Javi Sánchez
Rayan
Santos
Yellow Card
Santos
Camara
Barbero
José Fontán
Figueiredo
Yellow Card
Figueiredo
Gui
Fukui
Trezza
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
Match Statistics
Alverca
3-4-3Starting XI
- 6D. GuiM
- 10ChiquinhoF
- 12I. JamesD
- 14S. BaseyaD
- 19D. CamaraF
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer MarquesM
- 21Sergi GómezD
- 22FigueiredoF
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 35RayanM
- 55Francisco ChissumbaM
Substitutes
- 2ZoubdiF
- 4Y. BojangD
- 7André VidigalF
- 8Vasco MoreiraM
- 9Vivaldo SemedoF
- 11C. NuozziF
- 17S. MerhegF
- 25Ian LuccasM
- 26Matheus FrançaF
- 91JhonatanG
- 93Zé RafaelM
Arouca
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3José FontánD
- 6E. van EeM
- 7N. DjouahraM
- 8T. FukuiM
- 12I. de ArruabarrenaG
- 15Javi SánchezD
- 17BarberoF
- 18O. LebedenkoD
- 19A. TrezzaM
- 28Tiago EsgaioD
- 89Pedro SantosM
Substitutes
- 1J. VinarčíkG
- 2L. ShaharD
- 4Diogo MonteiroD
- 5B. PopovićD
- 9F. MayuluF
- 10Pablo GozálbezM
- 14Lee Hyun-JuM
- 20G. RukavinaF
- 21Mateo FloresM
- 23D. NandínF
- 24B. MansillaF
- 37Mario ClimentD
Alverca
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Bojang | D | 81 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sergi Gómez | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| I. James | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Matheus França | F | 28 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Figueiredo | F | 75 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| Zé Rafael | M | 15 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Matheus Mendes | G | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ian Luccas | M | 44 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| D. Gui | M | 75 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Francisco Chissumba | M | 9 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Zoubdi | F | 15 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Chiquinho | F | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Rayan | M | 46 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Camara | F | 62 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| S. Baseya | D | 6 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vivaldo Semedo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Nuozzi | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Merheg | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Vidigal | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jhonatan | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vasco Moreira | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Arouca
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javi Sánchez | D | 90 | 8.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| T. Fukui | M | 79 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2/3 |
| O. Lebedenko | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| José Fontán | D | 67 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Popović | D | 23 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Esgaio | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| E. van Ee | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Pedro Santos | M | 61 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Mateo Flores | M | 29 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Lee Hyun-Ju | M | 11 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Djouahra | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3/3 |
| I. de Arruabarrena | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Nandín | F | 23 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| B. Mansilla | F | 11 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Barbero | F | 67 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| A. Trezza | M | 79 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Diogo Monteiro | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Mayulu | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Gozálbez | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Vinarčík | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Shahar | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Rukavina | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mario Climent | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Alverca vs Arouca?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Alverca to win against Arouca.
- What score did Fipster predict for Alverca vs Arouca?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Alverca 1–0 Arouca.
- What were the win probabilities for Alverca vs Arouca?
- Fipster's model gave Alverca a 35% chance of winning, Arouca a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.