Alaves vs Valencia
Valencia snatch narrow win at Alaves
Luis Rioja's strike secures a slender victory away from home.
Valencia edged out Alaves 1-0 thanks to Luis Rioja's decisive goal in the 78th minute. The match was tighter than expected, with Alaves unable to find the net despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 3-0 home win. This result certainly defied the forecast, delivering a surprise for those backing the hosts.
Outcome probability
Alaves and Valencia face off in what looks set to be a one-sided affair. With Alaves sitting comfortably near the top of the table and Valencia struggling at the bottom, the stage is set for a dominant home performance.
Match factors
Alaves' potent home attack vs struggling Valencia defense
Alaves average 3 goals per home game with Boyé and Díaz leading scoring, while Valencia concedes 2 goals per away game and ranks last in league
Lucas Boyé's exceptional scoring form
Boyé has 4 goals in 3 home games, well above league attacker average of 0.29 goals/game
Mariano Díaz's dual threat as scorer and assister
Díaz has 3 goals and 3 assists in 4 games, showing strong recent form and creative influence
Toni Martínez doubtful with foot injury
Martínez's uncertain availability caps his scoring and assist probability, limiting Valencia's attacking options
The context
Alaves currently hold 10 points from 4 games, placing them second in the league standings. In stark contrast, Valencia have managed just 1 point from 5 games, languishing at the bottom of the table. This gulf in form and points per game highlights the uphill battle Valencia face in this fixture.
Key insights
Lucas Boyé
Alaves
Boyé's scoring rate at home is exceptional, with 4 goals in 3 games, far exceeding the league average for attackers.
La Liga 26/274 goals in 3 appearances, 1.33 goals/game at home
- M
Mariano Díaz Mejía
Alaves
Díaz is a dual threat, contributing 3 goals and 3 assists in 4 games, making him a key creative and scoring outlet.
La Liga 26/273 goals and 3 assists in 4 appearances
Angel Pérez
Alaves
Pérez provides creativity with 3 assists in 4 games, forming a strong connection with Boyé in goal creation.
La Liga 26/273 assists in 4 appearances, 1.0 assists/game at home
- T
Toni Martínez
Valencia
Martínez's doubtful status with a foot injury limits Valencia's attacking options and potential impact.
Analysis
Alaves boast a remarkable +16 goal difference, reflecting their offensive prowess and defensive solidity. Their top scorer, Lucas Boyé, has netted 4 goals in 3 home games, well above the league average for attackers. Mariano Díaz Mejía complements this threat with 3 goals and 3 assists in 4 games, making him a dual threat. Meanwhile, Valencia's defence has been leaky, conceding an average of 2 goals per away game. The doubtful status of Toni Martínez further limits Valencia's attacking options, compounding their woes.
Key facts
- 1.Alaves are ranked 2nd with 10 points from 4 games (W3 D1 L0).
- 2.Valencia are ranked 20th with 1 point from 5 games (W0 D1 L4).
- 3.Alaves have a +16 goal difference compared to Valencia's -9.
- 4.Alaves average 2.50 points per game versus Valencia's 0.20.
- 5.Lucas Boyé has scored 4 goals in 3 home games, well above league average.
- 6.Mariano Díaz Mejía has 3 goals and 3 assists in 4 games.
- 7.Valencia concedes an average of 2 goals per away game.
- 8.Toni Martínez is doubtful with a foot injury, limiting Valencia's attack.
Prediction
The prediction strongly favours a home win for Alaves with a 3-0 scoreline. The most likely halftime score is 1-0, indicating a steady build-up to a comprehensive victory. Expect Boyé and Díaz to be heavily involved in the goals, supported by creative midfielders like Angel Pérez.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Alaves
Away — Valencia
The verdict
In summary, Alaves' superior form, goal difference, and attacking firepower make them overwhelming favourites to secure a comfortable 3-0 win over a struggling Valencia side. Valencia will need a miracle to avoid a heavy defeat here.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Goal cancelled
Blanco
Yellow Card
Javi Guerra
Yellow Card
Pepelu
Yellow Card
Aaron Mayol
Yellow Card
Rodríguez
Yellow Card
Duro
Suárez
Toni Martínez
Rodríguez
Luis Rioja
Assist: Javi Guerra
de Haas
Luis Rioja
Pablo Maffeo
Blanco
Rebbach
Pérez
Match Statistics
Alaves
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1SiveraG
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 7Angel PérezM
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 15L. BoyéF
- 16V. KoskiD
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 21A. RebbachM
Substitutes
- 3YusiD
- 6GuevaraM
- 9M. DíazF
- 10Carles AleñáM
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 13A. GiménezG
- 17JonnyD
- 22Miguel RodríguezF
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 24Selu DialloM
- 27X. OlaizD
Valencia
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 2G. RodríguezM
- 7A. DanjumaM
- 8Javi GuerraM
- 9Hugo DuroF
- 12J. de HaasD
- 14José GayàD
- 18PepeluD
- 23F. UgrinicM
- 24Pablo MaffeoD
- 33Aaron MayolM
Substitutes
- 10H. ElliottM
- 11Luis RiojaF
- 15A. DiengM
- 19Dani RabaF
- 21Jesús VázquezD
- 22Arnau MartínezD
- 25K. van OevelenG
- 27David OtorbiF
- 29Alex PanachD
- 36Iker CórdobaD
- 37Aimar BlázquezF
- 39R. SatoM
Alaves
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sivera | G | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Valentini | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Angel Pérez | M | 85 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/4 |
| V. Koski | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Carles Aleñá | M | 5 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yusi | D | 23 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Guevara | M | 5 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Denis Suárez | M | 67 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| N. Tenaglia | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Díaz | F | 23 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Rodríguez | F | 5 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Toni Martínez | F | 67 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| L. Boyé | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Pablo Ibáñez | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Antonio Blanco | M | 85 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Rebbach | M | 85 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Hugo Novoa | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Giménez | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Selu Diallo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonny | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| X. Olaiz | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Benavídez | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Valencia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Rioja | F | 19 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| José Gayà | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. de Haas | D | 82 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Danjuma | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1/1 |
| S. Dimitrievski | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Pepelu | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iker Córdoba | D | 8 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jesús Vázquez | D | 8 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arnau Martínez | D | 8 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Maffeo | D | 82 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Javi Guerra | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| F. Ugrinic | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| David Otorbi | F | 20 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Mayol | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| G. Rodríguez | M | 70 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Hugo Duro | F | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Alex Panach | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Sato | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aimar Blázquez | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. van Oevelen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Elliott | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Dieng | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dani Raba | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Alaves vs Valencia?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Alaves to win against Valencia.
- What score did Fipster predict for Alaves vs Valencia?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Alaves 3–0 Valencia.
- What were the win probabilities for Alaves vs Valencia?
- Fipster's model gave Alaves a 85% chance of winning, Valencia a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.