Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano
Match recap
Rayo Vallecano beat Alaves 2–1 in their La Liga fixture. Toni Martínez scored for Alaves; Camello and Nteka replied for Rayo Vallecano. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.73 for Alaves versus 1.39 for Rayo Vallecano. Alaves sit 14th in the La Liga table while Rayo Vallecano are 8th.
Analysis
As the La Liga season nears its conclusion, Alaves host Rayo Vallecano in what promises to be a tightly contested match. Both teams sit mid-table, eager to finish on a high note, making this clash a fascinating tactical battle.
Alaves currently occupy 14th place with 43 points, while Rayo Vallecano are slightly ahead in 8th with 47 points. The teams have shown similar form, with Rayo holding a marginally better goal difference, hinting at a closely matched encounter.
Alaves rely heavily on Toni Martínez, their top scorer with 12 goals and impressive recent form, while Rayo's creative spark comes from Álvaro García, leading with 5 assists. Antonio Blanco's midfield control for Alaves and Rayo's wide play through García and Jorge de Frutos will be key tactical elements. Both sides have full-strength squads, setting the stage for a competitive game likely to see few goals and disciplined play.
Prediction
The forecast is a 1-1 draw, with a goalless first half giving way to goals from both sides in the second. The match is expected to be competitive but balanced, with four cards likely to be shown as players contest midfield control and wide attacks.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Alaves' Midfield Control via Antonio Blanco
Blanco's high passing volume and defensive stats give Alaves control in midfield, disrupting Rayo's build-up.
Toni Martínez Leading Scoring Threat
Martínez's strong recent scoring form and consistent minutes make him the primary goal threat for Alaves.
Rayo's Álvaro García Creative Spur
García's assist tally and involvement in key plays provide Rayo with creative momentum to challenge Alaves defense.
Rayo's Wide Play with Álvaro García and Jorge de Frutos
Rayo's attacking relies on wide players García and de Frutos, exploiting flanks against Alaves' defense.
No Significant Injuries Affecting Lineups
Both teams have no reported injuries, so full-strength squads expected, maintaining tactical stability.
Key Takeaways
In summary, expect a well-fought draw reflecting the teams' similar standings and strengths. Both Alaves and Rayo Vallecano will share the points, leaving fans satisfied with an entertaining and balanced finale to their season.
- Alaves are 14th with 43 points from 37 games (11 wins, 10 draws, 16 losses).
- Rayo Vallecano hold 8th place with 47 points from 37 games (11 wins, 14 draws, 12 losses).
- Rayo Vallecano have a better goal difference (-4) compared to Alaves (-11).
- Toni Martínez is Alaves' top scorer with 12 goals, including 4 in the last 5 games.
- Álvaro García leads Rayo Vallecano with 5 assists this season.
- Antonio Blanco controls midfield for Alaves with 1762 passes and 85% accuracy.
- No significant injuries reported for either team, ensuring full-strength lineups.
- The predicted total cards for the match is 4, indicating a moderately disciplined game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Alaves
Away — Rayo Vallecano
No standout top scorers flagged for Rayo Vallecano
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Toni Martínez
Parada
Martín
García
Camello
Yellow Card
Mumin
Óscar Valentín
Ciss
Yellow Card
Pérez
Yellow Card
Camello
Assist: Ciss
Ibáñez
Rebbach
Yellow Card
Guridi
Boyé
Tenaglia
Yellow Card
Balliu
Espino
Yellow Card
Nteka
Assist: Camello
Match Statistics
Alaves
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1SiveraG
- 7Angel PérezM
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 15L. BoyéF
- 16V. KoskiD
- 18Jon GuridiM
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 21A. RebbachM
- 24Víctor ParadaD
Substitutes
- 3YusiD
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 6GuevaraM
- 9M. DíazF
- 10Carles AleñáM
- 13Raúl FernándezG
- 17JonnyD
- 20CalebeM
- 22I. DiabateF
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 31G. SwiderskiG
- 34A. Manas
Rayo Vallecano
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Dani CárdenasG
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 11R. NtekaF
- 14Carlos MartínM
- 15GumbauM
- 16A. MuminD
- 18Álvaro GarcíaM
- 20I. BalliuD
- 22A. EspinoD
- 23Óscar ValentínM
- 32N. MendyD
Substitutes
- 2A. RațiuD
- 3Pep ChavarríaD
- 6P. CissM
- 8Ó. TrejoM
- 9AlemãoF
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 13A. BatallaG
- 19Jorge de FrutosF
- 21Fran PérezM
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 30JuanpeG
- 33J. VertrouwdD
Alaves
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toni Martínez | F | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Antonio Sivera | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jon Guridi | M | 84 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Pablo Ibáñez | M | 74 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Victor Parada | D | 33 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Ville Koski | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Abderrahman Rebbach | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/4 |
| Antonio Blanco(C) | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Ángel Pérez | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2/4 |
| Lucas Boyé | F | 84 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | — |
| Nahuel Tenaglia | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Calebe Gonçalves | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mariano Díaz | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonny Otto | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raúl Fernández | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aitor Mañas | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carles Aleñá | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Grégoire Swiderski | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Youssef Enriquez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Denis Suárez | M | 16 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Ibrahim Diabaté | F | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ander Guevara | M | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Benavídez | M | 57 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dani Cárdenas | G | 90 | 8.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Randy Nteka | F | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Óscar Valentín(C) | M | 61 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nobel Mendy | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pacha | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1/2 |
| Iván Balliu | D | 88 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Gerard Gumbau | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Álvaro García | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Díaz | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Abdul Mumin | D | 61 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Martín | M | 38 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jozhua Vertrouwd | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juanpe | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josep Chavarría | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fran Pérez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Óscar Trejo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Florian Lejeune | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Augusto Batalla | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sergio Camello | F | 52 | 8.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Pathé Ismaël Ciss | M | 29 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Andrei Rațiu | D | 8 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Jorge de Frutos | F | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Alemão | F | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |