Alaves vs Malaga
Malaga snatch draw at Alaves
Aitor Mañas' late strike rescues a point for Alaves after Malaga's early lead.
Malaga took the lead just before half-time through Adrián Niño Heredia, only for Aitor Mañas to level for Alaves in the 89th minute, ensuring a 1-1 draw. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 3-0 home win, proving the match far tighter than expected.
Outcome probability
Alaves and Malaga face off in a Regular Season - 10 clash, with Alaves showing stronger form and a clear statistical edge this season.
Match factors
Alaves' superior passing and defensive metrics
Alaves players like Antonio Blanco and N. Tenaglia exceed league averages in passing accuracy and defensive actions, supporting a strong home performance
L. Boyé's recent goal-scoring form
Boyé has scored multiple goals recently with high match ratings, indicating strong form to lead Alaves' attack
Malaga missing key attackers and midfielders
Malaga has 5 confirmed outs including attackers and midfielders, weakening their offensive capabilities against Alaves
Alaves' midfield control advantage
Alaves midfielders show higher passing volume and defensive contributions than Malaga counterparts, likely controlling game tempo
The context
Alaves currently sit 7th in the league with 11 points from 8 games, while Malaga languish in 20th with just 4 points. The goal difference gap is stark: +13 for Alaves versus -9 for Malaga, highlighting the gulf in both attack and defence.
Key insights
- A
Antonio Blanco
Alaves
Blanco’s passing accuracy of 86% and 36.75 passes per game surpass league averages, underpinning Alaves’ midfield control.
La Liga 26/27Passing accuracy 86%, 36.75 passes per game
- N
N. Tenaglia
Alaves
Tenaglia’s defensive work rate is impressive with 2.25 tackles and 1.625 interceptions per game, bolstering Alaves’ backline.
La Liga 26/272.25 tackles and 1.625 interceptions per game
- L
L. Boyé
Alaves
Boyé’s recent goal-scoring form and high match ratings make him a key threat to Malaga’s defence.
La Liga 26/27Multiple goals recently, high match ratings
Analysis
Alaves boast midfielders like Antonio Blanco and defenders such as N. Tenaglia who outperform league averages in passing accuracy and defensive actions. Their attacking threat is spearheaded by L. Boyé, who has been in fine goal-scoring form recently. Meanwhile, Malaga are missing several key players, weakening their offensive capabilities. Alaves’ midfield control and defensive solidity suggest they will dominate possession and limit Malaga’s chances.
Key facts
- 1.Alaves rank 7th with 11 points from 8 games (W3 D2 L3).
- 2.Malaga are 20th with 4 points from 8 games (W0 D4 L4).
- 3.Alaves have a +13 goal difference; Malaga have -9.
- 4.Alaves average 1.38 points per game; Malaga average 0.50.
- 5.Antonio Blanco’s passing accuracy is 86%, above league average for midfielders.
- 6.N. Tenaglia averages 2.25 tackles per game, exceeding league average.
- 7.L. Boyé has scored multiple goals recently with high match ratings.
- 8.Malaga have 5 confirmed absences, including key attackers and midfielders.
Prediction
We expect Alaves to take an early lead, reflected in a 1-0 halftime score, before extending their advantage to a 3-0 fulltime victory. The match is also likely to see around four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Alaves
Away — Malaga
The verdict
With superior form, key players firing, and Malaga’s injury woes, Alaves look set to claim a comfortable win. Expect a confident home performance that keeps their momentum going.
Prediction generated 18 Oct 2026, 18:25 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Boyé
Yellow Card
Niño Heredia
Assist: Enríquez
Aleñá
Goal confirmed
Valentini
Rebbach
Díaz
Tenaglia
Yellow Card
Aznou Ben Cheikh
Enríquez
Blanco
Puga
Niño Heredia
Dotor
Yellow Card
Dotor
Mañas
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Match Statistics
Alaves
5-3-2Starting XI
- 1SiveraG
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 7Angel PérezD
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 9M. DíazF
- 10Carles AleñáM
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 15L. BoyéF
- 16V. KoskiD
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 21A. RebbachD
Substitutes
- 3YusiD
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 13A. GiménezG
- 17JonnyD
- 20Aitor MañasF
- 22Miguel RodríguezF
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 24Selu DialloM
- 27X. OlaizD
- 33Rubén MonteroG
Malaga
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1Alfonso HerreroG
- 3PugaD
- 4Einar GalileaD
- 6Ramón EnríquezM
- 8Carlos DotorM
- 10David LarrubiaM
- 15Ángel RecioD
- 21Adrián Niño HerediaF
- 22Dani LorenzoM
- 31RafitaD
- 39Adam Aznou Ben CheikhM
Substitutes
- 2J. CajusteM
- 5Álex PastorD
- 7H. AbaidaF
- 9ChupeF
- 12José SalinasD
- 13Carlos LópezG
- 14Rafa RodríguezM
- 17Eneko JauregiF
- 20Fernando CaleroD
- 23Izan MerinoM
- 25Juan BerrocalD
- 32J. FernandezF
Alaves
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aitor Mañas | F | 15 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Angel Pérez | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | 2/7 |
| Carles Aleñá | M | 46 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| V. Koski | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Toni Martínez | F | 24 | 7.0 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| Denis Suárez | M | 35 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Hugo Novoa | F | 44 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Sivera | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Ibáñez | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Antonio Blanco | M | 75 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| N. Tenaglia | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Yusi | D | 35 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| L. Boyé | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/5 |
| M. Díaz | F | 66 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| N. Valentini | D | 55 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Rebbach | D | 55 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| A. Giménez | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Rodríguez | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Selu Diallo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rubén Montero | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| X. Olaiz | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Benavídez | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonny | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Malaga
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrián Niño Heredia | F | 77 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Ramón Enríquez | M | 68 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Einar Galilea | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Puga | D | 77 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/5 |
| Rafita | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Chupe | F | 13 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| José Salinas | D | 22 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Dani Lorenzo | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Ángel Recio | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Larrubia | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/3 |
| J. Cajuste | M | 3 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Berrocal | D | 13 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Dotor | M | 87 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh | M | 68 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Rafa Rodríguez | M | 22 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Alfonso Herrero | G | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eneko Jauregi | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álex Pastor | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fernando Calero | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Fernandez | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Izan Merino | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos López | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Abaida | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Alaves vs Malaga?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Alaves to win against Malaga.
- What score did Fipster predict for Alaves vs Malaga?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Alaves 3–0 Malaga.
- What were the win probabilities for Alaves vs Malaga?
- Fipster's model gave Alaves a 95% chance of winning, Malaga a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.