Alaves vs Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid sneak past Alaves
A late Romero strike secures a narrow win for the visitors.
Atletico Madrid edged a tight contest at Alaves with goals from Álex Grimaldo and C. Romero, sandwiching a penalty from L. Boyé for the hosts. Despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a comfortable Alaves victory, the visitors defied expectations to claim all three points with a late winner.
Outcome probability
Alaves face Atletico Madrid in the eighth round of the regular season, with both sides eager to climb the league standings. Alaves have shown solid form at home, while Atletico Madrid bring a slightly better points-per-game record into this encounter.
Match factors
Alaves' Lucas Boyé in strong home scoring form
Boyé averages 1.33 goals per home game, making him a key threat against Atletico's defense.
Angel Pérez excels as Alaves' primary playmaker
Pérez has 3 assists in 6 games, surpassing league midfielder assist averages, boosting Alaves' attack.
Atletico Madrid's recent scoring streak
Atletico has scored in 4 of last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum despite missing key forwards.
Atletico missing key attackers J. Álvarez and A. Sørloth
Absence of top forwards reduces Atletico's scoring options, increasing reliance on midfield creativity.
The context
Alaves currently sit sixth in the league with 11 points from seven games, while Atletico Madrid are fourth with 13 points from six matches. Despite Atletico's slight edge in points per game, Alaves' home performances and attacking threats make this a compelling fixture.
Key insights
Lucas Boyé
Alaves
Boyé averages 1.33 goals per home game, making him a key threat against Atletico's defence.
La Liga 26/274 goals in 5 appearances, 0.8 goals/game
Angel Pérez
Alaves
Pérez has 3 assists in 6 games, surpassing league midfielder assist averages, boosting Alaves' attack.
La Liga 26/273 assists in 6 appearances, 0.5 assists/game
- J
J. Álvarez and A. Sørloth
Atletico Madrid
Their absence reduces Atletico's scoring options, increasing reliance on midfield creativity.
Analysis
The prediction strongly favours a home win, with a 3-1 scoreline the most likely outcome. Alaves' Lucas Boyé leads the charge with four goals in five appearances, boasting an impressive 1.33 goals per home game. Angel Pérez complements this with three assists in six games, providing creative spark. Atletico Madrid, missing key forwards J. Álvarez and A. Sørloth, will rely heavily on midfield creativity but may struggle to contain Alaves' attacking momentum.
Key facts
- 1.Alaves are 6th in the league with 11 points from 7 games (W3 D2 L2).
- 2.Atletico Madrid are 4th with 13 points from 6 games (W4 D1 L1).
- 3.Atletico Madrid have a higher points-per-game average (2.17) than Alaves (1.57).
- 4.Lucas Boyé leads Alaves with 4 goals in 5 games, averaging 1.33 goals per home game.
- 5.Angel Pérez has provided 3 assists in 6 games, a strong creative presence for Alaves.
- 6.Atletico Madrid are missing key attackers J. Álvarez and A. Sørloth due to injury.
- 7.The predicted halftime score is 1-0, consistent with the fulltime 3-1 result.
- 8.The match is expected to feature around 4 cards, indicating a competitive encounter.
Prediction
Expect Alaves to take an early lead, reflected in the predicted 1-0 halftime score, and maintain control to finish 3-1 winners. The match is also expected to see around four cards, indicating a competitive but fair contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Alaves
Away — Atletico Madrid
No standout top scorers flagged for Atletico Madrid
The verdict
Alaves look well placed to capitalise on their home advantage and Atletico Madrid's injury setbacks. With key players in form and a tactical edge, Alaves should secure a confident 3-1 victory in this regular season clash.
Prediction generated 20 Sep 2026, 16:16 UTC · Fipster Model v1.160
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Álex Grimaldo
Assist: David
Robin Le Normand
Yellow Card
Boyé
Penalty
David
Lookman
Yellow Card
Lookman
Barrios
Card upgrade confirmed
Pérez
Red Card
Robin Le Normand
Blanco
Boyé
Toni Martínez
Valentini
Simeone
Suárez
Romero
Assist: Álex Baena
Cardoso
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
Match Statistics
Alaves
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1SiveraG
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 7Angel PérezM
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 15L. BoyéF
- 17JonnyD
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 21A. RebbachM
Substitutes
- 3YusiD
- 6GuevaraM
- 9M. DíazF
- 10Carles AleñáM
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 13A. GiménezG
- 16V. KoskiD
- 20Aitor MañasF
- 22Miguel RodríguezF
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 24Selu DialloM
- 27X. OlaizD
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2Starting XI
- 5J. CardosoM
- 6KokeM
- 8Pablo BarriosM
- 11A. LookmanM
- 13J. OblakG
- 14Marcos LlorenteD
- 15J. DavidF
- 20G. SimeoneM
- 21C. RomeroD
- 22Álex GrimaldoD
- 24Robin Le NormandD
Substitutes
- 1J. MussoG
- 7Lee Kang-InM
- 9A. SørlothF
- 10Álex BaenaM
- 16Arnau OrtizF
- 17D. HanckoD
- 18Marc PubillD
- 19J. ÁlvarezF
- 23M. HjulmandM
- 27J. DominguezD
- 30Dani MartÃnezD
- 46J. CastilloM
Alaves
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sivera | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Denis Suárez | M | 79 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 3/5 |
| Aitor Mañas | F | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| L. Boyé | F | 64 | 6.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Pablo Ibáñez | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| N. Tenaglia | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Jonny | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Toni Martínez | F | 64 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Díaz | F | 26 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Antonio Blanco | M | 64 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| N. Valentini | D | 71 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| V. Koski | D | 19 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Benavídez | M | 26 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guevara | M | 26 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Rebbach | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Angel Pérez | M | 61 | 5.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Hugo Novoa | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Giménez | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Rodríguez | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Selu Diallo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yusi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carles Aleñá | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| X. Olaiz | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álex Grimaldo | D | 90 | 8.4 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1/3 |
| C. Romero | D | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| J. David | F | 46 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Koke | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Marcos Llorente | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 2/2 |
| Álex Baena | M | 44 | 7.1 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1/2 |
| Pablo Barrios | M | 57 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| J. Álvarez | F | 44 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| G. Simeone | M | 73 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| J. Cardoso | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| D. Hancko | D | 28 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Sørloth | F | 17 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Oblak | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lee Kang-In | M | 33 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Robin Le Normand | D | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Lookman | M | 46 | 5.9 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/4 |
| J. Dominguez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Castillo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dani MartÃnez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marc Pubill | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arnau Ortiz | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Hjulmand | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Musso | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Alaves to win against Atletico Madrid.
- What score did Fipster predict for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Alaves 3–1 Atletico Madrid.
- What were the win probabilities for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
- Fipster's model gave Alaves a 74% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 13% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 74% confidence — a high-confidence call.