Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor stuns Alanyaspor with early double
B. Kutlu and M. Baku put Kocaelispor ahead before Ruan's reply proved too little.
Kocaelispor took control with two first-half strikes from B. Kutlu and M. Baku, setting the tone for a narrow 2-1 victory over Alanyaspor. Despite Ruan's second-half goal giving the hosts hope, it wasn't enough to overturn the deficit. This result defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a 1-0 home win, marking a notable upset in the Süper Lig.
Outcome probability
This Regular Season - 9 clash between Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor promises a closely fought encounter, with both sides showing decent form early in the campaign. Expect a tactical battle with limited chances in the first half.
Match factors
Kocaelispor's defensive line weakened by injuries
Key defenders Haïdara and Dijksteel are confirmed out, reducing defensive stability
Makouta's scoring form boosts Alanyaspor's attack
Makouta has 2 goals in last 5 games, above average for midfielders, increasing scoring chances
Hadërgjonaj's creativity key for Alanyaspor's goal threat
Top assister with 2 assists and strong passing accuracy, likely to create chances
Kocaelispor's scoring streak at home
Kocaelispor has scored in last 4 home games, showing attacking momentum despite defensive absences
The context
Alanyaspor currently sit 10th in the league with 4 points from 3 games, while Kocaelispor are a bit higher up in 4th place with 6 points. Historically, Alanyaspor have the edge in their head-to-head meetings, winning two of the three matches played against Kocaelispor. The average goals in these encounters have been fairly modest, suggesting a tight contest.
Key insights
Gaïus Makouta
Alanyaspor
Makouta's above-average scoring rate for a midfielder makes him a key attacking threat for Alanyaspor.
Süper Lig 26/272 goals in 7 apps, 0.29 goals/game
Florent Hadërgjonaj
Alanyaspor
Hadërgjonaj's creativity and set-piece ability are crucial for creating chances.
Süper Lig 26/272 assists in 7 apps, 0.29 assists/game
Berkan Kutlu
Kocaelispor
Kutlu leads Kocaelispor's scoring and is a consistent starter, adding attacking threat.
Süper Lig 26/271 assist in 7 apps, 0.14 assists/game
- M
Massadio Haïdara
Kocaelispor
Haïdara's absence weakens Kocaelispor's defensive stability significantly.
Analysis
Kocaelispor have been scoring consistently at home, netting in their last four home games, but their defensive line is weakened by the confirmed absences of key defenders Massadio Haïdara and Anfernee Dijksteel. This defensive fragility could be the chink in their armour that Alanyaspor look to exploit. Alanyaspor's midfield dynamo Gaïus Makouta has been in good scoring form, with 2 goals in his last 5 games, making him a key threat. Additionally, Florent Hadërgjonaj's creativity and set-piece prowess provide Alanyaspor with a solid chance to break the deadlock.
Key facts
- 1.Alanyaspor lead head-to-head with 2 wins in 3 matches against Kocaelispor.
- 2.Alanyaspor have 4 points from 3 league games (W1 D1 L1).
- 3.Kocaelispor have 6 points from 3 league games (W2 L1).
- 4.Kocaelispor's defence weakened by injuries to Haïdara and Dijksteel.
- 5.Gaïus Makouta has scored 2 goals in last 5 games for Alanyaspor.
- 6.Florent Hadërgjonaj is Alanyaspor's top assister with 2 assists this season.
- 7.Kocaelispor have scored in their last 4 home matches.
Prediction
The most likely scenario is a tight match with a goalless first half, followed by a late breakthrough from Alanyaspor to clinch a 1-0 victory. The home side's slight edge in head-to-head results and the defensive injuries hampering Kocaelispor tilt the scales in their favour for a narrow win.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Alanyaspor
Away — Kocaelispor
No standout top scorers flagged for Kocaelispor
The verdict
While Kocaelispor have shown attacking promise, their defensive issues and Alanyaspor's key players in form suggest the home side will just about get the job done. Expect a tense, low-scoring affair with Alanyaspor sneaking the points.
Prediction generated 18 Oct 2026, 14:56 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Kutlu
Assist: Rivas
Baku
Assist: Ayé
Ortakaya
Yellow Card
Makouta
Usluoğlu
Hagi
Ruan
Assist: Keskin
Aksoy
Yellow Card
Santos Sousa
Baku
Rivas
Gezek
Aksoy
Kutlu
Yellow Card
Ayé
Kutlu
Çelik
Yellow Card
Show
Yellow Card
Aliti
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 3 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 |  Kocaelispor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 5 |  Rizespor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 |  Samsunspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 |  Alanyaspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 |  Gaziantep FK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Match Statistics
Alanyaspor
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 3Nuno LimaD
- 5F. AlitiD
- 7İ. KayaF
- 10I. HagiF
- 11RuanM
- 17A. UsluoğluF
- 20F. AksoyD
- 42G. MakoutaM
- 48Paulo VictorG
- 55B. GezekM
- 94F. HadërgjonajM
Substitutes
- 4B. ÖzyurtD
- 8E. KeskinM
- 9O. Ben AliF
- 12M. EliaF
- 16Hwang Ui-JoF
- 19Iván CédricF
- 23M. BayramG
- 26İ. ÇelikM
- 58MaestroM
- 88Y. ÖzdemirM
Kocaelispor
5-4-1Starting XI
- 2A. DijksteelD
- 5E. OrtakayaD
- 10B. KutluM
- 11Gonçalo Santos SousaM
- 14ShowD
- 20Mahamadou Susoho SissohoM
- 22U. YıldızD
- 32M. BakuM
- 83S. ÖztaşdelenG
- 97F. AyéF
- 99R. RivasD
Substitutes
- 3M. CinanD
- 6M. MaglicaD
- 7D. AgyeiF
- 8T. GulliksenM
- 23O. PiriG
- 26M. AltunbaşF
- 27Ege BilimM
- 41O. ÖztongaD
- 75T. BingölD
Alanyaspor
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruan Pereira Duarte | M | 86 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 3/5 |
| Fidan Aliti | D | 86 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Paulo Victor | G | 86 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Florent Hadergjonaj | M | 86 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Ianis Hagi | F | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Nuno Lima | D | 86 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fatih Aksoy(C) | D | 76 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gaius Makouta | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arda Usluoğlu | F | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Baran Ali Gezek | M | 70 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ibrahim Kaya | F | 86 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/4 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Bedirhan Özyurt | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mert Furkan Bayram | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hwang Ui-Jo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Meschak Elia | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yusuf Özdemir | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| İzzet Çelik | M | 16 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Omar Ben Ali | F | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Enes Keskin | M | 41 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Iván Cédric | F | 41 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Maestro | M | 41 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Kocaelispor
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkan Kutlu | M | 82 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Makana Baku | M | 67 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1/1 |
| Anfernee Jamal Dijksteel(C) | D | 86 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Rigoberto Rivas | D | 67 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Uğur Kaan Yıldız | D | 86 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Emir Ortakaya | D | 86 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Mahamadou Susoho | M | 86 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/4 |
| Gonçalo Sousa | M | 61 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/3 |
| Serhat Öztaşdelen | G | 86 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Florian Ayé | F | 82 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 3 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Show | D | 86 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Onurcan Piri | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ege Bilim | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matej Maglica | D | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tayfur Bingöl | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tobias Fjeld Gulliksen | M | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Onur Öztonga | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Muharrem Cinan | D | 19 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Dan Agyei | F | 25 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Metehan Altunbaş | F | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Alanyaspor to win against Kocaelispor.
- What score did Fipster predict for Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Alanyaspor 1–0 Kocaelispor.
- What were the win probabilities for Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
- Fipster's model gave Alanyaspor a 62% chance of winning, Kocaelispor a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 62% confidence — a medium-confidence call.