Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Match recap
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Shabab 3–1 in their Pro League fixture. Al-Hammami scored for Al Shabab; Mohammed Abu Al Shamat, Quiñones, and Turki Al Ammar replied for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.27 for Al Shabab versus 2.64 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Al Shabab sit 11th in the Pro League table while Al-Qadisiyah FC are 3rd.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-3 Al-Qadisiyah FC win
Actual
1–3
Outcome probability
The Saudi Pro League kicks off with an intriguing fixture as Al Shabab face Al-Qadisiyah FC. Both teams have had contrasting fortunes this season, setting the stage for a compelling encounter.
Match factors
Al-Qadisiyah's potent attack vs Al Shabab's defense
Al-Qadisiyah's top scorers Retegui and Quiñones have strong recent form against a defense conceding 1.38 goals per game.
Al-Qadisiyah's superior scoring rate
Al-Qadisiyah averages 2.3 goals per game, significantly higher than Al Shabab's 1.13, supporting predicted away win.
Al-Qadisiyah's 5-game scoring streak
Al-Qadisiyah has scored in each of their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum.
Creative midfielders key for both teams
Players like Mohammed Abu Al Shamat and Joshua Brownhill provide creative spark and assist potential, crucial for goal creation.
No confirmed injuries affecting key players
Both teams have no confirmed out players, so full-strength squads expected, maintaining tactical balance.
The context
Al-Qadisiyah FC currently sit comfortably near the top of the league with 19 points from 8 games, boasting a strong goal difference of +18. In contrast, Al Shabab find themselves struggling in 14th place with just 4 points from 7 matches. Historically, their head-to-head meetings have been fairly balanced, with Al Shabab winning 5 of 13 encounters, Al-Qadisiyah FC 4, and 4 draws, averaging 2.7 goals per match.
Key insights
Mateo Retegui
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Top scorer with 5 goals in 8 games, including 4 in the last 5 matches, making him a key threat away from home.
Pro League 26/275 goals in 8 appearances, 0.625 goals/game
J. Quiñones
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Consistent attacker with 4 goals and 3 assists, forming a strong partnership with Retegui.
Pro League 26/274 goals and 3 assists in 8 appearances
Mohammed Abu Al Shamat
Al Shabab
Creative midfielder leading with 4 assists and strong defensive work, vital for Al Shabab’s chances.
Pro League 26/274 assists in 8 appearances, 2.875 tackles per game
Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking firepower, led by Mateo Retegui and J. Quiñones, has been a thorn in the side of many defences this season. Retegui, the league's top scorer with 5 goals in 8 games, has been in fine form recently, netting 4 in his last 5 matches. Quiñones complements him well with 4 goals and 3 assists. Al Shabab's defence, conceding an average of 1.38 goals per game, will have their hands full. Midfield creativity from Mohammed Abu Al Shamat and Joshua Brownhill will be crucial for both sides, but Al-Qadisiyah's superior scoring rate of 2.3 goals per game compared to Al Shabab's 1.13 suggests the visitors hold the edge.
Key facts
- 1.Al-Qadisiyah FC rank 2nd in the league with 19 points from 8 games (W6 D1 L1).
- 2.Al Shabab are 14th with 4 points from 7 games (W0 D4 L3).
- 3.Al-Qadisiyah FC have a goal difference of +18, significantly better than Al Shabab.
- 4.In 13 head-to-head matches, Al Shabab have 5 wins, Al-Qadisiyah FC 4, and 4 draws.
- 5.Al-Qadisiyah FC average 2.3 goals per game this season, compared to Al Shabab's 1.13.
- 6.Mateo Retegui is the league's top scorer with 5 goals in 8 games.
- 7.Al-Qadisiyah FC have scored in each of their last 5 matches.
Prediction
Expect Al-Qadisiyah FC to take an early lead, possibly going 2-0 up by halftime, before sealing a 3-1 victory by full time. Their consistent scoring streak and clinical finishing should prove decisive against a home side struggling for form and goals.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Al Shabab
Away — Al-Qadisiyah FC
The verdict
This match promises to highlight Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking strengths and Al Shabab's defensive vulnerabilities. While the home team may find a consolation goal, the visitors are likely to leave with all three points and a comfortable win.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 10:02 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Barry
Yellow Card
Al-Hammami
Assist: Brownhill
Mohammed Abu Al Shamat
Assist: Nacho
Awad Al Nashri
Yellow Card
Awad Al Nashri
Nacho
Yellow Card
Musab Al Juwayr
Mohammed Abu Al Shamat
Otávio
Retegui
Bonsu Baah
Quiñones
Hussain Al Sibyani
Adli
Barry
Mohammed Fuad Ibrahim Al Thani
Turki Al Ammar
Assist: Quiñones
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +21 | 27 |
| 2 |  Al-Nassr | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +15 | 25 |
| 3 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | +14 | 25 |
| 4 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +10 | 23 |
| 10 |  Al Khaleej Saihat | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -7 | 12 |
| 11 |  Al Shabab | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 |  Al-Hazm | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
Match Statistics
Al Shabab
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3M. BarryD
- 4T. JedvajD
- 6Awad Al NashriM
- 8J. BrownhillM
- 10Y. CarrascoM
- 13Carlos JúniorF
- 16Hussain Al SibyaniD
- 17Mohammed Fuad Ibrahim Al ThaniD
- 22Hammam Al-HammamiM
- 29Y. AdliM
- 33Mohammed Al MahasnehG
Substitutes
- 2Mohammed Al ShwirekhD
- 5Ali MakkiD
- 23Abdulaziz Rahma
- 56Yazeed Al-DosariD
- 74Abdulaziz HadhoodF
- 77Hisham Al DubaisF
- 94Mubarak Al RajehD
- 99Hamad Al-KhorayefF
Al-Qadisiyah FC
3-1-4-2Starting XI
- 2Mohammed Abu Al ShamatM
- 4Jehad Abdullatif AhmD
- 5J. WeiglM
- 6NachoD
- 10Musab Al JuwayrM
- 17G. ÁlvarezD
- 22C. Bonsu BaahM
- 25OtávioM
- 28Ahmed Al KassarG
- 32M. ReteguiF
- 33J. QuiñonesF
Substitutes
- 7Turki Al AmmarM
- 9Abdullah Al SalemF
- 11Ali Abdullah HazzaziM
- 12Yasir Al ShahraniD
- 15Mohammed Al Qahtani
- 19Haitham AsiriF
- 40Ibrahim MahnashiM
- 50Meshari SunyurG
- 88Cameron PuertasM
Al Shabab
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yacine Adli | M | 84 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| Josh Brownhill | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Yannick Carrasco(C) | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/3 |
| Tin Jedvaj | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Mohammed Al-Thani | D | 88 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Awad Al-Nashri | M | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hussain Al-Sebyani | D | 84 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Mamadou Barry | D | 84 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Hammam Al-Hammami | M | 90 | 6.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/6 |
| Carlos Junior | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Mohammed Al-Mahasneh | G | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Mubarak Al-Rajeh | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdulaziz Hadhood | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hisham Al-Dubais | F | 30 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Ali Makki | D | 13 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohammed Al Shwirekh | D | 13 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Hamad Al-Khorayef | F | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Yazeed Al-Dosari | D | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
Al-Qadisiyah FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julián Quiñones | F | 90 | 8.9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2/2 |
| Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat | M | 74 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3/3 |
| Nacho Fernández(C) | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gastón Álvarez | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Jehad Thakri | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Ahmed Al-Kassar | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julian Weigl | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| Otávio | M | 73 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Mateo Retegui | F | 73 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Musab Al Juwayr | M | 74 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Christopher Baah | M | 80 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Mshari Sanyoor | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ibrahim Mahnashi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ali Hazazi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Haitham Asiri | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Turki Alammar | M | 10 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Mohammed Hamad Alqahtani | F | 16 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Yasser Al-Shahrani | D | 16 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cameron Puertas | M | 17 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Abdullah Al-Salem | F | 17 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Al-Qadisiyah FC to win against Al Shabab.
- What score did Fipster predict for Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Al Shabab 1–3 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
- What were the win probabilities for Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
- Fipster's model gave Al Shabab a 5% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 89% chance, and a 6% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 89% confidence — a high-confidence call.