Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal edge out Al-Qadisiyah in tight clash
A late flurry of goals settled a thrilling Pro League encounter.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC secured a narrow 3-2 victory over Al-Qadisiyah FC in a match that saw Gabriel Martinelli open the scoring early on. Despite J. Quiñones and M. Retegui pulling goals back for the hosts, Rúben Neves and S. Milinković-Savić struck after the break to ensure the away side's win. Fipster's prediction of an away victory was spot on, though the exact scoreline proved closer than anticipated.
Outcome probability
This Saudi Pro League clash features Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC, two top contenders separated by just two points in the standings. Both teams have shown solid form, but Al-Hilal's superior goal difference and attacking prowess set the stage for an exciting encounter.
Match factors
Al-Hilal's superior scoring form
Al-Hilal averages 3 goals per game with top scorers like Martinelli and Watkins in strong form.
Watkins' dual threat as scorer and assister
Watkins has 4 goals and 4 assists in last 5 games, making him a key offensive catalyst.
Midfield control via Rúben Neves
Neves' high passing accuracy and assist tally give Al-Hilal midfield dominance and chance creation.
Al-Qadisiyah's reliance on Retegui and Abu Al Shamat
Retegui and Abu Al Shamat lead Al-Qadisiyah's scoring and form but face tough defense from Al-Hilal.
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so tactical and form factors will be decisive.
The context
Al-Hilal currently lead the league with 24 points from 9 games, boasting an impressive +20 goal difference. Al-Qadisiyah sit just behind in second place with 22 points and a +14 goal difference. Historically, Al-Hilal have dominated this fixture, winning 8 of their 13 meetings, which adds an extra edge to this regular season round 11 match.
Key insights
Gabriel Martinelli
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Martinelli's clinical finishing with 4 goals in 4 games, including 3 away goals, makes him a key threat on the road.
Pro League 26/274 goals in 4 appearances, 62.5 avg mins/game
O. Watkins
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Watkins' combined 4 goals and 4 assists in 5 games underline his importance as both scorer and creator.
Pro League 26/274 goals and 4 assists in 5 appearances, 78.8 avg mins/game
Rúben Neves
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Neves' high passing accuracy (87%) and 3 assists provide Al-Hilal with midfield dominance and creative spark.
Pro League 26/273 assists in 8 appearances, 87% passing accuracy
Analysis
Al-Hilal's attacking duo, Gabriel Martinelli and O. Watkins, have been in fine form, combining for 8 goals and multiple assists this season. Martinelli's knack for scoring away from home and Watkins' dual threat as scorer and creator give Al-Hilal a clear offensive advantage. Midfield maestro Rúben Neves provides excellent chance creation with his high passing accuracy and assist tally, ensuring Al-Hilal control the midfield battle. Meanwhile, Al-Qadisiyah rely heavily on Mateo Retegui and Mohammed Abu Al Shamat for goals, but they face a tough defensive challenge from Al-Hilal's organised backline. Both teams have full squads available, so tactical execution and form will be decisive.
Key facts
- 1.Al-Hilal Saudi FC lead the league with 24 points from 9 games (W8 D0 L1).
- 2.Al-Qadisiyah FC are second with 22 points from 9 games (W7 D1 L1).
- 3.Al-Hilal have a +20 goal difference, six goals better than Al-Qadisiyah's +14.
- 4.In 13 head-to-head matches, Al-Hilal have won 8, Al-Qadisiyah 2, with 3 draws.
- 5.Gabriel Martinelli has scored 4 goals in 4 appearances this season.
- 6.O. Watkins has 4 goals and 4 assists in 5 games, showing strong offensive influence.
- 7.Rúben Neves has 3 assists and 87% passing accuracy, key to Al-Hilal's midfield control.
Prediction
The prediction favours an away win for Al-Hilal with a halftime lead of 2-0 and a final score of 3-1. The expected total of four cards suggests a competitive but controlled match. Al-Hilal's superior scoring form and midfield dominance should see them outclass Al-Qadisiyah in this encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Al-Qadisiyah FC
No standout top scorers flagged for Al-Qadisiyah FC
Away — Al-Hilal Saudi FC
The verdict
In summary, Al-Hilal's attacking firepower and midfield control are likely to prove decisive against a resilient Al-Qadisiyah side. Expect a confident performance from the visitors, securing a 3-1 victory and maintaining their position at the top of the league table.
Prediction generated 20 Oct 2026, 17:12 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Nández
Gabriel Martinelli
Assist: Watkins
Quiñones
Assist: Musab Al Juwayr
Hassan Tambakti
Yellow Card
Gabriel Martinelli
Hassan Tambakti
Mohammed Abu Al Shamat
Yellow Card
Rúben Neves
Assist: Milinković-Savić
Musab Al Juwayr
Milinković-Savić
Assist: Sultan Mandash
Rúben Neves
Yellow Card
Retegui
Assist: Reijnders
Hernández
Nasser Al Dawsari
Summerville
Mohammed Abu Al Shamat
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +21 | 27 |
| 2 |  Al-Nassr | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +15 | 25 |
| 3 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | +14 | 25 |
| 4 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +10 | 23 |
Match Statistics
Al-Qadisiyah FC
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1K. CasteelsG
- 2Mohammed Abu Al ShamatM
- 4Jehad Abdullatif AhmD
- 5J. WeiglM
- 8N. NándezD
- 10Musab Al JuwayrM
- 14T. ReijndersM
- 17G. ÁlvarezD
- 22C. Bonsu BaahM
- 32M. ReteguiF
- 33J. QuiñonesF
Substitutes
- 7Turki Al AmmarM
- 9Abdullah Al SalemF
- 12Yasir Al ShahraniD
- 15Mohammed Al QahtaniF
- 18Abdulmalik Al-JaberM
- 27E. HoussaM
- 28Ahmed Al KassarG
- 35A. Al SiyahiM
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2Mohammed Mater Mohsin MahzariD
- 3K. KoulibalyD
- 6Nasser Al DawsariM
- 7Gabriel MartinelliF
- 8Rúben NevesM
- 11O. WatkinsF
- 19T. HernándezD
- 22S. Milinković-SavićM
- 37Y. BounouG
- 38C. SummervilleF
- 87Hassan TambaktiD
Substitutes
- 18Murad Al HawsawiM
- 24Moteb Al HarbiD
- 27Sultan MandashF
- 28Mohamed KannoM
- 29Salem Al DawsariM
- 33Mohammed Al OwaisG
- 72S. DahalF
- 77Nawaf Al HabashiM
- 78Ali LajamiD
Al-Qadisiyah FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Retegui | F | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Quiñones | F | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Musab Al Juwayr | M | 83 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 3 | — | 5 | 2/2 |
| T. Reijnders | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0/3 |
| K. Casteels | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yasir Al Shahrani | D | 72 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohammed Al Qahtani | F | 7 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Álvarez | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohammed Abu Al Shamat | M | 92 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Weigl | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Jehad Abdullatif Ahm | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| C. Bonsu Baah | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| N. Nández | D | 18 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Al Siyahi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdullah Al Salem | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Turki Al Ammar | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ahmed Al Kassar | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Houssa | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdulmalik Al-Jaber | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Milinković-Savić | M | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | — |
| Gabriel Martinelli | F | 49 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Mohammed Mater Mohsin Mahzari | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Rúben Neves | M | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| O. Watkins | F | 90 | 7.4 | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Y. Bounou | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Summerville | F | 88 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Sultan Mandash | F | 41 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| T. Hernández | D | 88 | 6.8 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| K. Koulibaly | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nasser Al Dawsari | M | 88 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ali Lajami | D | 16 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Moteb Al Harbi | D | 2 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohamed Kanno | M | 2 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Salem Al Dawsari | M | 2 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Hassan Tambakti | D | 74 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Nawaf Al Habashi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohammed Al Owais | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Murad Al Hawsawi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Dahal | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win against Al-Qadisiyah FC.
- What score did Fipster predict for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
- What were the win probabilities for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
- Fipster's model gave Al-Qadisiyah FC a 2% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 95% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.