Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh
Match recap
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fateh 3–0 in their Pro League fixture. Ângelo, Félix, and Samú Costa scored for Al-Nassr. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.63 for Al-Nassr versus 1.06 for Al-Fateh. Al-Nassr sit 2nd in the Pro League table while Al-Fateh are 16th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-0 Al-Nassr win
Actual
3–0
Outcome probability
As the Saudi Pro League kicks off its regular season, Al-Nassr face Al-Fateh in a clash that looks set to highlight the gulf in class between the two sides. With Al-Nassr boasting a strong goal difference and a potent attacking lineup, the stage is set for a dominant display.
Match factors
Al-Nassr's midfield creativity vs Al-Fateh's defensive frailty
Al-Nassr's midfield trio (Mané, João Félix, Ângelo) combine high assist and goal rates, exploiting Al-Fateh's weak defensive record
Cristiano Ronaldo's strong home scoring form
Ronaldo has scored 3 goals in 4 home games, well above league average for attackers, boosting Al-Nassr's goal threat
Al-Nassr's positive scoring streak
Al-Nassr has scored in their last 5 matches, including 4 home games, indicating strong attacking momentum
Full squad availability for both teams
No confirmed injuries or suspensions for either team, allowing strongest lineups and tactical plans
The context
Al-Nassr currently sit third in the league with 19 points from 8 games, enjoying a healthy goal difference of +23. In contrast, Al-Fateh find themselves struggling near the bottom, ranked 17th with just 3 points and a goal difference that tells a tale of defensive woes. Historically, Al-Nassr have the upper hand, having won 13 of their 20 head-to-head encounters against Al-Fateh.
Key insights
Cristiano Ronaldo
Al-Nassr
Ronaldo’s 3 goals in 4 home games make him a constant threat and key to Al-Nassr’s attacking success.
Pro League 26/274 goals in 7 appearances, 3 at home
S. Mané
Al-Nassr
Mané’s 3 assists and 2 goals this season highlight his role as the creative engine in midfield.
Pro League 26/273 assists in 8 appearances, 0.38 assists/game
Ângelo
Al-Nassr
Ângelo’s 3 goals and 2 assists in 7 games add valuable creativity and goal threat from midfield.
Pro League 26/273 goals and 2 assists in 7 appearances
Analysis
Al-Nassr's midfield creativity, spearheaded by the likes of Sadio Mané, João Félix, and Ângelo, is expected to exploit Al-Fateh's defensive frailties. Cristiano Ronaldo, with his impressive home scoring record of 3 goals in 4 games, remains the focal point of their attack. Al-Fateh's lone attacking threat, W. Kanga, has struggled to find the net this season, highlighting the challenge they face against a well-organised Al-Nassr defence. Both teams have full squads available, ensuring a tactical battle without injury excuses.
Key facts
- 1.Al-Nassr have won 13 of 20 head-to-head matches against Al-Fateh.
- 2.Al-Nassr are ranked 3rd in the league with 19 points from 8 games.
- 3.Al-Fateh are ranked 17th with 3 points from 8 games.
- 4.Al-Nassr have a superior goal difference of +23 compared to Al-Fateh.
- 5.Al-Nassr average 2.38 points per game, while Al-Fateh average 0.38.
- 6.Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 3 goals in 4 home games this season.
- 7.Sadio Mané has provided 3 assists in 8 games, key to Al-Nassr's creativity.
- 8.No confirmed injuries or suspensions for either team.
Prediction
The prediction is a comprehensive 4-0 victory for Al-Nassr. They are expected to lead 2-0 at halftime, building on their strong home form and attacking momentum. The match is likely to feature moderate discipline, with an anticipated total of four cards. Al-Nassr's superior points-per-game ratio and goal difference underpin this forecast.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Al-Nassr
Away — Al-Fateh
The verdict
In summary, Al-Nassr look set to assert their dominance early in the season with a commanding win over Al-Fateh. Their attacking trio and solid defence should leave little room for an upset, making this a straightforward fixture for the home side.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 09:57 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Faisal Al Abdulwahed
Yellow Card
Saad Al Nasser
Ângelo
Assist: Salem Al Najdi
Félix
Assist: Mané
Faisal Al Abdulwahed
Félix
Yellow Card
Fahad Al Zubaidi
Unknown
Coman
Félix
Samú Costa
Assist: Abdullah Al Hamdan
Abdullah Al Hamdan
Mané
Haraslín
Saeed Baattia
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +21 | 27 |
| 2 |  Al-Nassr | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +15 | 25 |
| 3 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | +14 | 25 |
| 15 |  Al-Faisaly FC | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 |  Al-Fateh | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
| 17 |  Al Taawon | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -13 | 4 |
Match Statistics
Al-Nassr
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 3M. SimakanD
- 6Saad Al NasserD
- 9Abdullah Al HamdanF
- 10S. ManéM
- 12Nawaf BoushalD
- 17Abdullah Al KhaibariM
- 20ÂngeloM
- 21K. ComanM
- 24BentoG
- 26Íñigo MartínezD
- 79João FélixM
Substitutes
- 4Nader Al SharariD
- 11Samú CostaM
- 14Sami Al NajiM
- 16Mohammed MaranF
- 19Ali Al HassanM
- 23Ayman YahyaM
- 53A. Al OtaibiG
- 60Saad HaqawiF
- 83Salem Al NajdiD
Al-Fateh
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3K. BoatengD
- 7Fahad Al Zubaidi
- 8M. LixandruM
- 10L. HaraslínM
- 11M. BatnaM
- 15Saeed BaattiaD
- 17M. SaâdaneD
- 22Abdullah Al Qahtani
- 28Z. YoussoufM
- 80Faisal Al AbdulwahedM
- 94Waleed Al AnziG
Substitutes
- 4Ziyad Al JariD
- 9W. KangaF
- 16Abdulelah Al KhaibariD
- 18Abdulaziz Al FawazM
- 19Petrit PreniqiD
- 21Ramos JeffersonF
- 29Ali Al MasoudF
- 38I. Al AboodG
- 87Bin Mahmoud
Al-Nassr
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ângelo | M | 90 | 8.7 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2/2 |
| João Félix | M | 66 | 8.5 | 1 | — | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1/1 |
| Mohamed Simakan | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iñigo Martínez | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bento | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nawaf Boushal | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Saad Al-Nasser | D | 18 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sadio Mané | M | 77 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1/5 |
| Kingsley Coman | M | 66 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/4 |
| Abdullah Al-Khaibari(C) | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/4 |
| Abdullah Al-Hamdan | F | 77 | 6.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Abdulrahman Al-Otaibi | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Saad Haqawi | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ali Al-Hassan | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nader Al Sharari | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samú Costa | M | 24 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Salem Alnajdi | D | 72 | 7.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Ayman Yahya | M | 24 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Sami Al Naji | M | 13 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohammed Marran | F | 13 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Al-Fateh
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul Rahman Al Khaibari | D | 64 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zaydou Youssouf | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Fahad Zubaidi | F | 63 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Mihai Lixandru | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Waled Al Enazi | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Mourad Batna | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0/2 |
| Marwane Saadane(C) | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Faisal Al Abdulwahed | M | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Kennedy Boateng | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lukáš Haraslín | M | 80 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Saeed Baattia | D | 81 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Abdulaziz Al Fawaz | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ziyad Aljari | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ibrahim Al Abood | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robin Kelder | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jefferson Ramos | F | 27 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Sattam Al Tumbukti | D | 9 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ali Al Masoud | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wilfried Kanga | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Abdulelah Al Khaibari | D | 26 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Al-Nassr to win against Al-Fateh.
- What score did Fipster predict for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Al-Nassr 4–0 Al-Fateh.
- What were the win probabilities for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
- Fipster's model gave Al-Nassr a 95% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.