Al-Nassr vs Abha
Match recap
Al-Nassr beat Abha 2–1 in their Pro League fixture. Cristiano Ronaldo and Abdullah Al Hamdan scored for Al-Nassr; Fekir replied for Abha. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.34 for Al-Nassr versus 0.26 for Abha. Al-Nassr sit 2nd in the Pro League table while Abha are 18th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-0 Al-Nassr win
Actual
2–1
Outcome probability
Al-Nassr and Abha face off in the Saudi Professional League's regular season round 6, with Al-Nassr expected to assert their dominance. The home side has been in fine scoring form, while Abha have struggled to find their footing this campaign.
Match factors
Al-Nassr's potent home attack vs Abha's weak defense
Al-Nassr averages 2.5 goals at home with key scorers Ronaldo and Ângelo in form, while Abha concedes 1.33 goals at home and 2.25 away, indicating defensive vulnerability
Cristiano Ronaldo's strong home scoring form
Ronaldo has scored 3 goals in 3 home games this season, outperforming league average attackers in goals per game
Al-Nassr's consistent scoring streak
Team is on a 5-game scoring streak overall and 4-game scoring streak at home, supporting predicted 4-0 win
Creative midfield trio driving Al-Nassr's offense
Ângelo, Samú Costa, and Sadio Mané combine high assist and goal rates with excellent passing accuracy, enhancing attacking threat
Full squad availability boosts Al-Nassr's attacking options
No confirmed injuries or suspensions for Al-Nassr, ensuring key scorers and creators are available for the match
The context
Al-Nassr currently sit third in the league with 19 points from 8 games, boasting a strong goal difference of +20. In contrast, Abha are near the bottom, 18th with just 2 points from 7 matches. Historically, Al-Nassr have had the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, winning 9 of 12 encounters.
Key insights
Cristiano Ronaldo
Al-Nassr
Ronaldo’s clinical finishing at home makes him a key threat, with 3 goals in 3 home games this season.
Pro League 26/274 goals in 7 apps, 3 at home (Saudi Professional League 2026)
Ângelo
Al-Nassr
Ângelo’s creativity and goal contributions bolster Al-Nassr’s midfield, with 3 goals and 2 assists in 7 games.
Pro League 26/273 goals, 2 assists in 7 apps (Saudi Professional League 2026)
Samú Costa
Al-Nassr
Samú Costa adds goal threat from midfield, scoring 3 times in 7 games with excellent passing accuracy.
Pro League 26/273 goals in 7 apps, 94% passing accuracy (Saudi Professional League 2026)
Analysis
Al-Nassr's attacking trio, led by Cristiano Ronaldo, Ângelo, and Samú Costa, have been instrumental in their scoring spree. Ronaldo, in particular, has netted 3 goals in 3 home games, making him a constant threat. Abha's defence has been leaky, conceding over two goals per away game, which bodes poorly for their chances. The midfield creativity from Ângelo and Mané further enhances Al-Nassr's offensive threat, while Abha's lack of points and poor form suggest they will struggle to keep the scoreline respectable.
Key facts
- 1.Al-Nassr are 3rd in the league with 19 points from 8 games (W6 D1 L1).
- 2.Abha are 18th with 2 points from 7 games (W0 D2 L5).
- 3.Al-Nassr have a +20 goal difference, significantly better than Abha.
- 4.Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 3 goals in 3 home games this season.
- 5.Al-Nassr have won 9 of 12 head-to-head matches against Abha.
- 6.Abha concede an average of 2.25 goals per away game.
- 7.Al-Nassr are on a 5-game scoring streak overall and 4-game streak at home.
- 8.The predicted total cards for the match is 4, indicating moderate discipline issues.
Prediction
We predict a comprehensive 4-0 victory for Al-Nassr, with a halftime lead of 2-0. The home side's superior form, attacking firepower, and defensive solidity should see them comfortably outclass Abha in this league stage fixture.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Al-Nassr
Away — Abha
No standout top scorers flagged for Abha
The verdict
While the prediction leans heavily towards an Al-Nassr win, the low confidence rating reminds us that football can be unpredictable. Nevertheless, given the current form and statistics, a dominant home win looks the most likely outcome.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 09:16 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Cristiano Ronaldo
Assist: Ângelo
Abdullah Al Hamdan
Safwan Saud
Abdulkarim Darisi
Al Mutairi
Yellow Card
Al-Zaid
Fekir
Saad Al Nasser
Abdullah Al Hamdan
Firas Al-Ghamdi
Al Fahad
Unknown
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +21 | 27 |
| 2 |  Al-Nassr | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +15 | 25 |
| 3 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | +14 | 25 |
| 17 |  Al Taawon | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 |  Abha | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 2 |
Match Statistics
Al-Nassr
4-4-2Starting XI
- 3M. SimakanD
- 6Saad Al NasserD
- 7Cristiano RonaldoF
- 9Abdullah Al HamdanF
- 10S. ManéM
- 11Samú CostaM
- 12Nawaf BoushalD
- 17Abdullah Al KhaibariM
- 20ÂngeloM
- 24BentoG
- 26Íñigo MartínezD
Substitutes
- 1Nawaf Al AqidiG
- 4Nader Al SharariD
- 5Abdulelah Al AmriD
- 8Hayder AbdulkareemM
- 14Sami Al NajiM
- 23Ayman YahyaM
- 56R. Al GhamdiM
- 60Saad HaqawiF
- 83Salem Al NajdiD
Abha
4-5-1Starting XI
- 3J. GaariD
- 7Firas Al-GhamdiM
- 10N. FekirM
- 11A. GoryM
- 16D. LéonG
- 17Abdulkarim DarisiM
- 19Abdullah Al FahadM
- 37Abdulbasit Al-HindiD
- 39M. Al-ZaidD
- 44M. BatshuayiF
- 80Safwan SaudD
Substitutes
- 4Basil Al SayyaliM
- 6Faisal Al SubianiM
- 9Kamil BoumedmedF
- 12K. Al ShamraniD
- 20K. Al Qahtani
- 21A. Al Bouq
- 28Bader Al MutairiM
- 29Majed DawranM
- 66N. Al Gulaymish
Al-Nassr
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristiano Ronaldo(C) | F | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Ângelo | M | 90 | 7.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4/6 |
| Mohamed Simakan | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdullah Al-Hamdan | F | 76 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Samú Costa | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Nawaf Boushal | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| Sadio Mané | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 3/5 |
| Abdullah Al-Khaibari | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Iñigo Martínez | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Saad Al-Nasser | D | 76 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bento | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Nawaf Al-Aqidi | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Saad Haqawi | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hayder Abdulkareem | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nader Al Sharari | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rakan Al-Ghamdi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdulelah Al-Amri | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Sami Al Naji | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ayman Yahya | M | 14 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Salem Alnajdi | D | 13 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Abha
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nabil Fekir | M | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Donovan Léon | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Michy Batshuayi | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Abdulbaset Hindi | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Firas Al-Ghamdi | M | 85 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Abdullah Al-Fahad(C) | M | 85 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Alimami Gory | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Mohammed Al-Zaid | D | 70 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Abdulkarim Darisi | M | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Jurien Gaari | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Safwan Aljohani | D | 63 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Kamil Boumedmed | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Majed Dawran | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Faisal Al-Sibyani | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdulrahman Al Bouq | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Khaled Al Shamrani | D | 27 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Nawaf Al Ghulaimish | D | 20 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Basil Yousef Al-Sayyali | M | 14 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bader Al Mutairi | M | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keshim Al-Qahtani | F | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Al-Nassr vs Abha?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Al-Nassr to win against Abha.
- What score did Fipster predict for Al-Nassr vs Abha?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Al-Nassr 4–0 Abha.
- What were the win probabilities for Al-Nassr vs Abha?
- Fipster's model gave Al-Nassr a 35% chance of winning, Abha a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.