Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs NEOM
Match recap
NEOM beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2–0 in their Pro League fixture. Koulibaly scored for NEOM. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.81 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC versus 1.35 for NEOM. Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit 1st in the Pro League table while NEOM are 6th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-2 NEOM win
Actual
0–2
Outcome probability
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and NEOM face off in the Regular Season - 6 of their league campaign. Both teams have shown strong form, but this match promises a tight contest with NEOM looking to upset the odds.
Match factors
Al-Hilal's potent away attack led by Martinelli and Watkins
Martinelli and Watkins have strong recent away scoring form, likely to exploit NEOM's defense
Rúben Neves' midfield control and creativity
Neves' high passing accuracy and assist rate give Al-Hilal a creative edge
NEOM's Lacazette in good scoring form at home
Lacazette has scored 3 goals in last 2 home games, key to NEOM's attack
NEOM's defensive solidity anchored by Sarr and Zeze
Sarr and Zeze show strong defensive stats and passing, crucial to contain Al-Hilal
No confirmed injuries, full squads expected
Both teams have no confirmed outs, allowing full strength lineups
The context
Al-Hilal sit top of the league with 21 points from 8 games, boasting a superior goal difference and points-per-game ratio compared to NEOM, who are fifth with 16 points. Historically, Al-Hilal have won both previous encounters against NEOM, adding an intriguing dynamic to this fixture.
Key insights
Gabriel Martinelli
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Martinelli's strong away scoring form with 3 goals in last 2 away matches makes him a key threat.
Pro League 26/274 goals in 4 appearances, 1.5 goals/game away last 2 matches
O. Watkins
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Watkins' combination of goals and assists highlights his importance in Al-Hilal's attack.
Pro League 26/274 goals and 4 assists in 5 appearances
Rúben Neves
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Neves' high passing accuracy and assist rate provide creative control in midfield.
Pro League 26/273 assists in 8 appearances, 0.4 assists/game last 5
Alexandre Lacazette
NEOM
Lacazette's recent home scoring form with 3 goals in last 2 home games is vital for NEOM's attack.
Pro League 26/275 goals in 8 appearances
- M
M. Sarr
NEOM
Sarr's defensive solidity and interceptions are crucial to NEOM's backline.
Pro League 26/27Consistent starter with high duel win rate
Analysis
Despite Al-Hilal's commanding league position and better goal difference, NEOM's recent performances and tactical setup suggest they can snatch a win here. NEOM's Alexandre Lacazette has been in good scoring form at home, while Al-Hilal's Gabriel Martinelli and O. Watkins have been potent away attackers. NEOM's defensive duo, including M. Sarr, have shown solidity that could frustrate Al-Hilal's forwards. The match is finely balanced, but NEOM's ability to capitalise on chances and maintain defensive discipline could see them edge this one.
Key facts
- 1.Al-Hilal Saudi FC lead the league with 21 points from 8 games (W7 D0 L1).
- 2.NEOM are fifth in the league with 16 points from 8 games (W5 D1 L2).
- 3.Al-Hilal have a superior goal difference of +12 compared to NEOM.
- 4.Al-Hilal average 2.63 points per game, NEOM average 2.00.
- 5.In two previous meetings, Al-Hilal have won both matches against NEOM.
- 6.Gabriel Martinelli has scored 4 goals in 4 appearances, with strong away form.
- 7.O. Watkins leads Al-Hilal in assists with 4 in 5 games.
- 8.Alexandre Lacazette has scored 5 goals in 8 appearances for NEOM.
Prediction
The prediction favours an away win for NEOM with a 2-1 scoreline. While Al-Hilal have the statistical edge in the league, NEOM's recent form and key player contributions suggest they can secure a narrow victory in this encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Away — NEOM
The verdict
Expect a competitive match where NEOM's resilience and attacking threat might just outshine Al-Hilal's dominance in the league standings. A 2-1 win for NEOM would be a notable result, shaking up the league dynamics.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 09:22 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Koulibaly (OG)
Milinković-Savić
Yellow Card
Goal
Assist: Koné
Abdulmalik Al Oyayari
Hassan Tambakti
Moteb Al Harbi
Mohamed Kanno
Yellow Card
Muhannad Al Saad
Yellow Card
Summerville
Yellow Card
Mohammed Al Burayk
Yellow Card
Mohamed Kanno
Muhannad Al Saad
Lacazette
Gabriel Martinelli
Mohammed Mater Mohsin Mahzari
Khalil Al Absi
Koné
Yellow Card
Unknown
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +21 | 27 |
| 2 |  Al-Nassr | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +15 | 25 |
| 5 |  Al-Ahli Jeddah | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | +14 | 21 |
| 6 |  NEOM | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +7 | 19 |
| 7 |  Al-Ettifaq | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 18 |
Match Statistics
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 2Mohammed Mater Mohsin MahzariD
- 3K. KoulibalyD
- 7Gabriel MartinelliM
- 8Rúben NevesM
- 11O. WatkinsF
- 22S. Milinković-SavićM
- 24Moteb Al HarbiD
- 28Mohamed KannoM
- 33Mohammed Al OwaisG
- 38C. SummervilleM
- 87Hassan TambaktiD
Substitutes
- 6Nasser Al DawsariM
- 17M. Al RubaieG
- 18Murad Al HawsawiM
- 27Sultan MandashF
- 44Saad Al Mutairi
- 55M. Al DawoodD
- 72S. DahalF
- 75M. MeïtéF
- 77Nawaf Al HabashiD
NEOM
5-3-2Starting XI
- 1M. BułkaG
- 5M. SarrD
- 14Khalil Al AbsiF
- 15Abdulmalik Al OyayariD
- 18Ala Al Haji
- 19Mohannad Abu TahaD
- 44N. ZézéD
- 55Muhammad Al DosariD
- 72A. KonéM
- 77Muhannad Al SaadM
- 91A. LacazetteF
Substitutes
- 2Mohammed Al BuraykD
- 6A. Al Hassan
- 8Faisal Al GhamdiM
- 22A. Al AnziF
- 23V. VadaM
- 27Islam HawsawiD
- 70Haroune CamaraF
- 75Khalid Al RammahD
- 81Luís MaximianoG
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Al-Owais | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rúben Neves | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Ollie Watkins | F | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 4 | 3 | 1 | — |
| Crysencio Summerville | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 2/4 |
| Moteb Al-Harbi | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Sergej Milinković-Savić | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Gabriel Martinelli | M | 84 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Mohamed Kanno(C) | M | 74 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Mohammed Mahzari | D | 84 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Kalidou Koulibaly | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Hassan Tambakti | D | 45 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Mohammed Al-Yami | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nawaf Al-Habashi | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Murad Al Hawsawi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Meshal Al Dawood | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nasser Al-Dawsari | M | 45 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Mohamed Kader Meite | F | 16 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Saad Al Mutairy | D | 10 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sabri Abdu Dahal | F | 10 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Sultan Mandash | F | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
NEOM
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Bułka | G | 90 | 9.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Malang Sarr | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Amadou Koné | M | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Nathan Zeze | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Alexandre Lacazette(C) | F | 84 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Muhannad Al Saad | M | 75 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Mohannad Abu Taha | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Ala'a Al-Hejji | M | 89 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| Khalil Al-Absi | F | 84 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4/5 |
| Abdulmalik Al Oyayari | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Mohammed Al Dossari | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Luís Maximiano | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Faisal Al-Ghamdi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Khalid Al Rammah | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Islam Ahmed Hawsawi | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Abbas Sadiq Alhassan | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohammed Alburayk | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ahmed Al-Anzi | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Haroune Camara | F | 15 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Valentín Vada | M | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs NEOM?
- Fipster's AI model predicted NEOM to win against Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
- What score did Fipster predict for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs NEOM?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1–2 NEOM.
- What were the win probabilities for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs NEOM?
- Fipster's model gave Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 32% chance of winning, NEOM a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.